The 2025 season was a disaster for Jake Irvin pretty much from start to finish. Really, Irvin has not been the same guy since that insane July 4th start against the Mets in 2024. He showed so much promise
in the first half of 2024, but has really pitched his way out of the Nationals plans since then.
Jake Irvin was the worst qualified starter in all of baseball this season. His 5.70 ERA was the worst of all qualified pitchers, just edging out teammate Mitchell Parker. Irvin also allowed the most homers in all of baseball and the third most hits. It was an ugly season, but I want to figure out what happened to the guy who looked like a big piece of the Nats future plans after that electric July 4th start last year.
A big component of Irvin’s downfall is his drop in velocity. In the modern MLB, every tick of velocity is so important. Last season, Irvin averaged 93.9 MPH on his 4-seamer and 93.3 MPH on his sinker. Nothing overpowering, but enough to keep hitters honest. Early in 2024, Irvin was averaging over 94 on his 4-seamer, but that velocity dropped half a tick or so as the season went on.
With this in mind, Irvin coming out throwing in the low-90’s during Spring Training made me nervous. It is only Spring Training, but that drop in velo made me nervous heading into the season. That lack of velocity would continue to start the regular season. This season, Irvin averaged 92.4 MPH on his 4-seam and 91.9 MPH on his sinker.
However, Irvin was making it work for the first couple months of the season. At the end of May, his ERA was actually under 4. As we got deeper into the season though, the wheels would really fall off for him. Watching his starts became a chore and his ERA ballooned.
Irvin was mediocre in the first half, with a 4.58 ERA. The results were not horrible, but he looked unconvincing. A lot of his ERA indicators suggested he was lucky to even have those kinds of numbers. There were red flags everywhere.
Then things truly went off the rails in the second half. Irvin posted a 7.73 ERA in 13 second half starts. You just assumed he would get rocked every time he started and those assumptions were usually right.
This offseason, Irvin is hitting arbitration for the first time. He is projected to make $3.3 million. Based on how he has performed the last 18 months, it is unclear if he is even worth that. Sure, he has logged at least 180 innings the past two seasons, but those innings have been ugly lately.
With Josiah Gray coming back, Jake Bennett marching towards the MLB and potential free agents coming in, does Irvin have a spot on this team? I am not so sure at this point. He turns 29 soon, so there is not much more room for growth. Unless he gets the velocity back, I do not see a path for Irvin to be a viable starter.
It has been a really ugly fall from grace for a guy I really liked last year. To make things even worse, none of the underlying numbers suggest anything will get better. His xERA and FIP were both around his 5.70 ERA.
Paul Toboni has a choice to make here with Irvin. Will he tender the right hander and if he does, how will he use him. Could Irvin throw harder in shorter spurts? I think it is possible because he often starts games throwing 94-96 before throwing in the low 90’s and even upper 80’s as he gets deeper in the game.
This season was an unmitigated disaster for Irvin. He went from a nice piece of the rotation and a fan favorite to a guy who might get non-tendered. Stories like this are why pitchers go to such lengths to add velocity. It makes you a lot better, and Irvin’s fall off is all the evidence you need.
Season Grade: F
