The St. Louis Cardinals season officially came to a disappointing conclusion over the weekend and basically the only good news coming out of the 2025 campaign is that the Cardinals are indeed eligible
for the draft lottery again. Yay, I guess.
If the Cardinals were to move into the top 6 picks, it is my understanding that they would not be eligible for the lottery next year. It makes me wonder if they would prefer to stay outside of the top 6 (they currently sit 8th) since they are kicking off their multi-year rebuild under Chaim Bloom and they are not one lottery pick away from contention. MLB Draft talent is harder to scout than in other sports as even the best of the best MLB prospects are expected to need at least a season in the minors before being a productive major leaguer. Because of that, I personally would be in the camp for staying outside of the lottery picks and cash in on the few valuable major league pieces the team has in an attempt to speed up the rebuild and grab “sure thing” assets in return in the form of upper level minor leaguers or former well-regarded prospects.
Katie Woo recently mentioned on Cardinal Territory that she believes two players out of Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, and Lars Nootbaar are expected to be traded this offseason. I will take this moment to get ahead of it and hide behind my computer while saying that I am in favor of finding the best value for Donovan and Nootbaar as the 2026 season looks to be another clunker. I could be swayed to trade any of these four players, though, so I decided to do a little pros and cons for each player.
*Disclaimer: This analysis is assuming that Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado are also dealt this offseason*
Out of Burleson, Donovan, Gorman, and Nootbaar, which two should the Cardinals trade?
Alec Burleson
Going in alphabetical order, I will first breakdown the idea of dealing Alec Burleson, who I chose as my most improved player in a recent episode of the VEB Podcast. I did a pretty solid 180 on Burly this season as I saw him as a contact-oriented base clogger with little other value besides putting the ball in play and standing at a defensive position. As a middle of the order bat who plays corner outfield, first base, and designated hitter, I desired more pop for a lineup that finished near the bottom in terms of home runs.
After a huge spiral in the second half of the 2024 season, Burleson was able to stay consistent all year this year, even while battling a wrist injury. His first half OPS (.806) was similar to the second half (.795) and his power production fell off slightly, totaling 10 fewer extra-base hits in 83 less at-bats after the All-Star break. Burly finished third on the team in homers (18) and second in RBI (69), while pacing the team with two triples and an .802 OPS. Defensively, he was fine as a corner outfielder, improving his 2024 numbers but still grading as a slightly-below average defender.
In August, manager Oli Marmol was complimentary of Burleson stating that the lefty has solidified his spot for the future, but who knows if Bloom agrees with the manager. How others around the league view Burleson, though, may be completely different. Burleson’s career-high in homers is 21, set last season, and his 7.1% walk rate from this year is the highest of his career but still below league-average. His 69 RBI from 2025 is less than his high mark of 78, but he has traditionally been successful with runners in scoring position. Burly worked on his approach this offseason with hitting coach Brant Brown and is now chasing and whiffing less, while hitting the ball with some added oomph.
The lefty has three more seasons of team control, not hitting the open market until the conclusion of the 2028 season, so he is still going to be relatively cheap when compared to some of the top producers in the outfield. One reason I am against dealing Burleson is that it might be difficult to find a team looking for a contact-oriented DH, despite the fact he can hit decently well against lefties. He has performed like a middle of the order bat for the Cardinals, but his skillset may work better for the two-hole or bottom third of a lineup that is built around players with more homer potential. With a lineup that is already lacking power, subtracting Burleson without a clear replacement waiting in Triple-A, a trade may not be worth it. Teams looking for home runs may opt to give a short contract to someone like Ryan O’Hearn or Michael Conforto rather than deal assets away for a similarly skilled player.
With Willson Contreras looking to stick around for the time being, Burleson may have to fight for defensive playing time and could be penciled in as the near-everyday DH, depending on what happens with Ivan Herrera and the rest of the outfield group.
Brendan Donovan
If you’re a Donnie believer, go ahead and skip forward to the next player. Do not get me wrong, I am a big fan of Donovan, the way he plays the game, and the apparent leadership he provides for the Cardinals, but I am also thinking that he is at or near his peak value of a quality major league baseball player. At risk of sounding insulting, which of course I do not wish to be, his body of work is a great supporting piece for a championship ball club or as a player who can lengthen a lineup that has some imposing pieces in the middle of the order. Neither of those fit the 2026 Cardinals.
Donovan was deservingly named the Cardinals All-Star this season and was an early competitor for the National League batting title before a few minor injuries and a lack of supporting cast contributed to a mediocre second half. While grinding through lower body issues, Donovan only knocked two homers and eight doubles (five of which came in one weekend) in 116 at-bats after the break and drove in 14 runs for a struggling offense. Usually called a “super-utility” player, Donovan played 100 games at second base, six at shortstop, and 18 in the outfield after spending the majority of his time in the grass last season. Of course, injuries could be to blame for his lack of versatility, but to me, one of his greatest assets is his ability to play multiple positions and he did not do that in 2025. Yes, that has to do with the personnel on the 26-man roster as well, but his overall defensive value, per Baseball Savant, was a -1 on the year.
While this sounds like a lot of negatives towards one of the Cardinals best players, much of it is due to the fact he was one of the only “guys” on the team and he could really tap into his production if he played more of a supporting role. His positional flexibility, if it remains, could be a desired skillset for acquiring teams if they do not wish to keep him in a semi-permanent role in the infield. Another reason I feel Donnie could/should be dangled to rival organizations is because he has some of the most value on the Cardinals’ roster. Since the team is nowhere close to competing, capitalizing on one of his best overall seasons could help to revitalize the future core and fill other needs within the organization.
However, Donnie’s intangibles are also valuable for any organization. He is touted for his grit and leadership ability, even if he is not a typical vocal presence. For a team that may be running out plenty of rookies or players with limited service time, he could fill a major mentor role for an organization that is going through many changes at the same time.
Nolan Gorman
Now to Stormin’ Norman. Let me first start off by saying that I am a big fan of Norm’s potential but only just starting to come to terms with the fact that his potential may not be panning out, despite the fact he is still somehow just 25-years-old. Gorman had an interesting 2025 season, and depending on what stats you look at, it was either seen as progress or a disappointment.
Coming into the year, he was supposed to be a starting infielder with Nolan Arenado expected to be traded. When Nado ended up staying put, Gorman was left in a weird place of playing time that was made worse due to injury and bad performance when he did get his shot. In April and May, Gorman only received 102 plate appearances and failed to hit over .189 while striking out 30 times. On the positive, though, the lefty walked 13 times and knocked six extra-base hits, which was still only good for an OPS that started with a 5.
June happened to be his best month that also coincided with his most consistent opportunity. He received 78 at-bats in the month and put up an .867 OPS, powered by six homers and three doubles. The strikeouts and walks remained steady and he was able to bring most of that June success into July, although the average slumped. That downturn continued for the rest of the season, resulting in Gorman’s season end slash line of .205/.296/.370 with 14 homers and a near-34% strikeout rate. He ended up walking 11.7% of the time, a career-high, and spent more time at third base than second while filling in for an injured Arenado.
So, once again, we are left wondering what it all means in the case of Gorman. It seems like half of the fans are fully out on him and the others, like me, do not see the harm in one more full opportunity in 2026. The third base defense was tough to watch as it looked like he kept his second base arm slot at the hot corner, which does not bode well for the longer throw. I was a big fan of him as a second baseman with 30-homer potential, but he may just need to settle in at third to just focus on one thing (strikeouts) at a time. Because of another blah season, Gorman’s trade value may be inconclusive around the league. While he was not valuable to the Cardinals, he may be less valuable on another team, resulting in a minimal return if he were to be dealt. My concern, which is unfair, is that he will be dealt elsewhere and then pop 30 homers and fans will be in an uproar about another missed prospect.
Unlike Jordan Walker, Gorman at least showed some adjustment to his approach and has been good enough defensively in the past to not be a total detriment to the pitching staff. With a clear offseason of goals and coaching, Gorman could re-establish himself as a quality power option and become, as I have described him previously, a more athletic Kyle Schwarber without the massive production potential. Again, with little to play for next year, outside of a potential lottery pick again, there is little harm in running Gorman out there everyday as he hopes to find his footing again.
Lars Nootbaar
And finally, Lars Nootbaar. 2025 was supposed to be the year where we finally got an answer for if Noot’s peripherals will actually turn into production. Unfortunately for Nootbaar and the Cardinals, his production fell across the board, despite playing the most games (135) in his career. As the season came to a close, Nootbaar finished with 13 homers and a .686 OPS with his Baseball Savant page shifting from overwhelmingly red to plenty of blue. Noot spent the majority of the season at the leadoff spot and, despite taking plenty of walks, did not do much else for the Cardinals.
The outfielder’s walk rate and WRC+ were also the lowest of his career and his defense, which was never really his strong suit, also declined to well below league average. Nootbaar just turned 28 and will be a free agent after the 2027 season, so he is nearing the end of his cheap team control. With a slugging percentage that dropped all the way down to .361, finding Noot’s fit in a lineup is tough. However, with Noot not taking advantage of his extended opportunity, we may have gotten an answer for his future. While Gorman did not do much either, he is younger with better defensive versatility which is why I lean towards checking the trade temperature around the outfielder.
Along with Nootbaar, the current outfield profiles as Nootbaar, Burleson, Victor Scott II, and Jordan Walker. That does not include Nathan Church, Michael Siani, and Matt Koperniak, all of whom are lefties are on the 40-man roster but their futures may also be in question with Chaim Bloom taking over. It is known that I am not very high on VSII as an offensive piece, but he is so young and electric that there is no need to write him off as the up the middle defense profiles to be pretty solid for the team next year.
The return for Noot may not be as high as Burleson but could probably be greater than what the team would receive for Gorman. I lean towards dealing Nootbaar due to his age, injury concerns, and need to clear out a redundant lefty. Again, nothing against Noot because I am a fan of him and his personality, but he is a change of scenery candidate I would be okay with finding his next level, if it exists, with another organization.
