Arizona has a pretty good track record against the SEC, going 16-10 against the league since 2000. That includes wins over Alabama, Auburn and Florida this season.
But the Wildcats haven’t faced Arkansas, their opponent in the Sweet 16 since 1995. That was during the golden age of Razorback hoops, when coach Nolan Richardson piloted them to a national title in 1994 (beating Arizona in the semifinals along the way) as part of four consecutive trips to the Final Four.
This Arkansas team is 28-8, having
won seven in a row and claiming an SEC Tournament title, and it’s in the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive season under John Calipari.
To better understand the Hogs, we reached out to Anthony Kristensen of WholeHog Sports for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his splendid answers to our unimpressive questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: Arkansas averaged 96.5 points in a pair of NCAA tourney wins over double-digit seeds, a much tougher road than a year ago. What did the Razorbacks do best in those victories, and where did they struggle?
Anthony Kristensen: “I think Arkansas did a couple things differently in the two games. Arkansas really overwhelmed Hawaii with its pace of play and athleticism. The Razorbacks got to the rim with relative ease and made a lot of nice plays against a very good Hawaii defense. Hawaii entered that game allowing 9.3 assists per game—the best defensive mark in the country—and Arkansas finished with 26. Arkansas, despite playing without Nick Pringle against a team with good size, scored 17 layups and 11 dunks.
“Then, against High Point, I thought Arkansas’ shooting was the big difference. Arkansas shot 56 percent from the 3-point line on 16 attempts—not necessarily the highest volume, but it made the shots count when they came. A lot of that, obviously, came from Darius Acuff and his 36 points.
“As for struggles, I think some of those against High Point came in guarding the point of attack. Rob Martin, as good as he is, scored 30 points and was 8 of 12 on 2-point shots. He got to the rim pretty easily throughout the night and did a nice job of getting his teammates involved. Hawaii’s Dre Bullock, though nowhere near the same level of success, had 21 points and was 8 of 15 on 2-point shots. Some of those looks at the basket may have come because teams emphasized that more with Pringle being out, but still, I felt that guarding the point of attack was the biggest area of concern to come from those two games.”
Darius Acuff joins the long list of dynamic freshmen Arizona will have faced this season. What makes him so hard to stop, and what would a bad game look like from him?
“I actually wrote a story on this by asking five different players from different teams about what makes Darius Acuff unique, and I got five different answers. Some of it comes down to his pace of play, his passing ability and range, shooting, basketball IQ and more. When teams overhelp on him, he easily finds the best option. Or he can simply play in isolation and beat his man that way. He does a lot of things incredibly well and makes a lot of difficult things look very easy. I also think one of the things that makes him difficult to stop is his ability to hit difficult shots. A lot of the time, teams will be happy to allow guys to take midrange shots, but he hits those at a high rate.
“A bad game for him would probably be him being inefficient. The best example I can give for that is Arkansas’ 111-77 loss to Florida. He scored 17 points on 19 shots in what I thought was the best defensive coverage he had seen this season. Florida did a good job of running him off the 3-point line and forcing him left and, with Florida’s size and defense, did a nice job of contesting his shots and making sure nothing came easy. He finished with six assists in that game, but his shooting was off from how he usually plays. He had what some called a bad game against Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament, finishing with 21 points on 24 shots, but he also had seven assists and did a good job of getting his teammates involved.”
The Hogs wouldn’t be this far if it were a one-man show. Who are some other players that Arizona fans should be most concerned about?
“Meleek Thomas is the guy who immediately comes to mind. Obviously his shooting is the primary concern, but I think his overall game has grown a lot throughout the season. His driving game has gotten a lot better, as has his passing and rebounding.
“Trevon Brazile is a good shooter for someone at his size and his rim protection, in my eyes, was among the best in the SEC this season. Athletically speaking, he is among the best in the country. Lobs from Acuff to Brazile—particularly the one against Hawaii—are entertaining to watch, and Billy Richmond has some of those same qualities, though he is not the same level of 3-point shooter that Brazile is.
“Then I think Malique Ewin deserves a shout as well. He has been a big part of Arkansas’ success in recent games. He has had double-doubles in three of Arkansas’ previous four games.”
What’s the status of injured forwards Karter Knox and Nick Pringle? What kind of impact would either have if they can play?
“I would be pretty surprised if Karter Knox played, but the Sweet 16 has been his goal as far as a timeline is concerned. He had surgery on his left meniscus in February, and John Calipari said it would take a deep run for him to see the floor this season. That’s not to say it is impossible to see him, but I would be quite surprised. He adds another player on the wing who is a good on-ball defender and is capable of big nights offensively. Though his averages aren’t much different from last season, he has played some high level games, with his 20-point performance in a win over Texas Tech being the main one that comes to mind.
“I do expect Nick Pringle to play some sort of role on Thursday as he recovers from a hamstring injury. He was a gametime decision against both Hawaii and High Point and was a light participant in last week’s open practice. Though his individual numbers don’t jump off the page, Arkansas’ defensive analytics are better when he is on the floor. He is a good rim protector and is a decent finisher when he gets the ball inside or on lobs, though that is not Arkansas’ first offensive option.”
How do you think Arkansas will go about trying to neutralize Arizona’s paint presence, both offensively and defensively?
“It’s a good question because many teams have tried and failed to deal with that. I think, if Pringle is healthy and good to go, there’s a chance Arkansas plays a lineup with the three bigs—Pringle, Ewin and Brazile—together at different times. It’s not something Arkansas has done a ton of this season, with those three playing a combined eight minutes together this season, but it was effective when it happened. The defensive rating is 99.9 and the offensive rating 133.2. Like I said, that’s an extremely small sample size and should be taken with caution. But it at least gives an example showing that the combination has been good when it has been used, though a lot of it came against Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
“Arkansas has played more with Ewin as a 4 instead of a 5 in some recent games and has been given more license to shoot from range. Brazile has played some at the 3, so there’s some reason to believe they would at least be comfortable in playing that way. I think there’s a chance those three will play together at least at some point on Thursday. I could also see Arkansas looking to force Arizona into taking 3-point shots, which Arizona has hit when it has taken them but has not taken a lot. That can be a dangerous game when Brayden Burries and Anthony Dell’Orso are playing, but forcing others into those shots may be the way to do that. That is obviously much easier said than done.”
Kentucky were happy to see John Calipari go, but so far the move seems to have paid off. How does he compare to Eric Musselman with his coaching style and roster management?
“I think you’re seeing more roster retention under Calipari than you did under Musselman. Obviously, Calipari is going to have the one-and-done freshmen who are in and out. Acuff is likely to be that way, and I think there’s a chance Thomas is as well. But Arkansas returned four key contributors (Brazile, Knox, Richmond and D.J. Wagner) from last season’s Sweet 16 team. I think that has been the biggest break from the Musselman era, in which teams were largely built year-by-year in the portal, with some exceptions like Brazile or Devo Davis.
“As for the coaching style, I think the pace and tempo have been relatively similar. Calipari’s final Kentucky team played fast and both of his Arkansas teams have continued that trend. That came after Kentucky was 146 or lower in tempo from 2017-2023, per KenPom. Musselman has always played an up-tempo style, so the pace of play hasn’t been something I think people in Fayetteville have needed to get used to. There are some differences in schemes and in-game decisions, but I think the biggest change to this point has been in the roster building and continuity.”
Prediction time. Does Arizona hold serve and reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 2015 or does Arkansas pull off the upset? Give us a score prediction.
“I think I will play it safe and say Arizona wins in a close game. I’ll take Arizona in a fun, close 85-81 game. I think Arkansas’ offense can keep it in the game, but Arizona’s defense gets just enough stops to get it done.”
