With an ever present smile, Houston Texans head coach Demeco Ryans ended his latest post-game presser with “Yes, alright, we traded for Marvin Harrison. See ya!”
Pollyanna, NOUN
an excessively or blindly optimistic person.
Even when the team is 1-4, with the only win coming against the Tennessee Titans, literally the worst team in pro football, Ryans is smiling. He’s upbeat, joyful, seemingly convinced that no matter how dark the day gets, the sun is rising. All this, despite the current
up-ending of the Texans hopes and dreams for 2026, which has left fans in everything but a smiling mood.
Max Barlow over at Casino Gurus, unveiled a new number cruncher for tracking teams dubbed the NFL Pressure Index. In this, we see the following reasons for fans’ frowns to remain upside down
The NFL Pressure Index combines underperformance against preseason expectations (27.8%), recent form (22.2%), painful defeats (15%), playoff pressure (15%), injuries (10%) and performance red flags (10%) to produce a score out of 100.
- The Texans rank as the NFL’s 7th most pressured team: Scoring 68.8/100 on the NFL Pressure Index.
- They have suffered the NFL’s biggest drop in playoff hopes: Their estimated postseason probability has fallen by 33.3%, from 59% to 25%.
- Houston is falling short of preseason expectations: The Texans entered the season with a projected win total of 9.5 games, but have started 1-4, 1.8 wins behind their expected total at this stage.
- They suffered a particularly painful defeat against Dallas in Week 4: Houston reached an 82% in-game win probability before eventually losing 34-30.
- The Texans pressure has however reduced since Week 3: Their score has fallen 17.0 points, from 85.8 to 68.8, moving from 2nd to 7th in the rankings.
Thankfully, the Texans index score has risen to 68.8, as listed in the last bullet point above. Who currently holds the biggest disappointment? The Los Angeles Chargers roll into the weekend at 89.2/100. At least they have plenty of beaches to enjoy in January.
In trading a 2nd round pick for Marvin Harrison Jr. last weekend, Nick Caserio and the Houston Texans attacked this index. While many people think the price was too steep, word on the street was:
- The Arizona Cardinals demanded a 2nd round pick for MHJ
- C.J. Stroud lobbied for Houston to bring MHJ to town
- The Indianapolis Colts were working to land him
So, giving up a future 2nd round pick to A) land a player your QB wants to play catch with and B) prevent that player from going to your division rival is a win/win on paper. Especially with 1) there’s no guarantee that 2nd round pick was going to bring a player of MHJ’s caliber and 2) Caserio is a horse-trading, card shark who likely will package up something in the off-season to get someone else’s 2nd round pick.
Will the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade fix all that ails the Texans?
Anyone who thinks this team was 1 player away from the Super Bowl hasn’t been paying attention. C.J. Stroud has been balling out, having the best season of his career. And that’s in spite of the abysmal offensive line play, ghosted running game, and head-scratchingly bad defense.
While bringing in MHJ to play catch with his former college QB is certainly a positive on the surface, all the passing yards and receiving touchdowns won’t prevent the defense from giving up last minute game winners to the opposition.
Trading for Derrick Henry might have done more for the team’s fortunes, especially with David Montgomery in the MASH tent. Woody Marks is a quality tailback, but he’s not going to run for 2k behind this poorly coached O-line.
Yet, hope remains.
A lot of people are throwing around the term “bust” when it comes to Marvin Harrison Jr. right now. In his rookie year (2024), Harrison had 16 starts, 116 targets, 62 catches, 885 yards, a 14.3 yard per catch average and 8 touchdowns. All this on the arm of Kyler Murray, who hasn’t exactly been the greatest QB in the league. He did, however, have his 2nd best season when MHJ was a rookie, then fell off soon there after.
While a lot of talking heads are calling MHJ a bust, saying he shouldn’t have been drafted that high, Houston overpaid for him, etc., some people who should know, say things that give Ryans a reason to keep smiling.
This Sunday’s London game in Wembley Stadium against the Jacksonville Jaguars is likely too soon to see a true glimpse into what a Stroud>Nico Collins>Harrison Jr. passing attack looks like. But, don’t be surprised if he makes a statement to show the world the Arizona Cardinals mis-used him.
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. fix all that ails Nick Caley?
In this is where the smile might sink. Harrison was drafted into a poor situation in Phoenix, marginalized, underutilized, and ultimately shelved. How much of this is bad coaching, a poor-scheme fit and a product of the design-the-airplane-in-flight approach to the Cardinals offense over the last several seasons remains to be seen.
It’s easy to believe the narrative, that Harrison has been saved from the bad guys, brought to the good guys, and will now save the day. Especially when watching Ryans light up when he talks about the new wideout.
But we all know the bad coaching existed in Arizona because we’re all too familiar with seeing it here in H-Town. Nick Caley would likely struggle to run a top tier offense in the Big Ten, much less the AFC South. Ben McDaniels (wide receivers/passing game coordinator) and Jerry Shuplinski (QB coach) seem to be the lone bright spots on the Texans offensive coaching staff, however.
And, MHJ will operate largely under their guidance.
Which means, Pollyanna might just thrive in Space City after all.
For those who love to complain: if MHJ does thrive, it might buy Caley more time before the axe eventually falls. A stellar passing game masks the inadequacies of just how bad this offense really is, and Caley benefits most from that masking.
For those who embrace Pollyanna: Winning cures all. And if MHJ can help this team take another AFC South win this weekend, hope will reignite. At this stage, the only real chance this team has of making the playoffs is securing the 4th straight division crown. And in order to do that, they need to run the table, starting this weekend.
#GoTexans! #InDemecoWeTrust
