The Milwaukee Brewers are back on the road this weekend, as they’ll head to the desert to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks for three games beginning Friday evening. The Brewers, fresh off a winning homestand against the Reds and Cubs, are about halfway through the biggest gauntlet of their season — they’ve played seven games in the last seven days, with 11 games in the next 10 days leading into the All-Star break. They still sit atop the NL Central, five games ahead of the second-place Cubs.
On the
other side, the Diamondbacks had a disappointing month of June, going 12-15 as they’re now an even 43-43 on the season. They’re still in the wild card hunt but sit third in the NL West, 12.5 games behind the NL-leading Dodgers and just behind the Padres for second place.
Milwaukee’s IL currently includes RHP Carlos Rodriguez (late July return), RHP Logan Henderson (expected back next week), RHP Coleman Crow (July), LHP DL Hall (late July), LHP Rob Zastryzny (early July), LHP Brian Fitzpatrick (TBD), RHP Quinn Priester (2027), and LHP Angel Zerpa (early to mid-2027). Outfielder Brandon Lockridge is the lone position player on the shelf, and he’s currently looking at a late July return.
For the Diamondbacks, they’re currently without catcher James McCann (expected back next week), RHP Michael Soroka (post-All-Star break), OF Jordan Lawlar (late July/August), RHP Ryne Nelson (September), RHP Justin Martinez (second half), LHP A.J. Puk (TBD), RHP Corbin Burnes (September), RHP Cristian Mena (TBD), LHP Blake Walston (second half), and LHP Andrew Saalfrank (2027).
Jake Bauers leads the Brewers’ offense with 15 homers this season, while Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang have both added 12 homers. William Contreras, Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich, Andrew Vaughn, David Hamilton, and Cooper Pratt are among the other regular contributors of late, while Gary Sánchez, Sal Frelick, Joey Ortiz, and Blake Perkins provide depth. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .254/.339/.396 (.734 OPS ranks 10th), with 79 homers (tied for 25th), 436 runs (fifth), and 83 steals (fifth).
Despite having a few big names like Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Nolan Arenado, and Geraldo Perdomo, the D-backs haven’t been great offensively this year. Marte leads the team with 17 homers and 54 RBIs, while Carroll has 13 homers and a league-best 10 triples. Arenado has nine homers, and Ildemaro Vargas has cooled off considerably after a red-hot start. Gabriel Moreno, LuJames Groover, Max Kepler, Jorge Barrosa, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. round out the regulars for Arizona, with Pavin Smith, Adrian Del Castillo, and Tommy Troy serving as depth. As a team, the D-backs are hitting .238/.308/.386 (.694 OPS ranks tied for 26th), with 78 homers (tied for 28th), 367 runs (19th), and 54 steals (tied for 18th).
Aaron Ashby leads Milwaukee’s bullpen with a 3.16 ERA over 51 1/3 innings, and he also leads the league with a whopping 12 wins (to just one loss). Trevor Megill has been great after a shaky start to the season, and the same goes for Abner Uribe. Grant Anderson, Jared Koenig, and Chad Patrick provide valuable depth, and Joel Kuhnel and recent call-up Garrett Stallings round things out. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.36 team ERA (tied for first), including a 3.17 starter ERA (first) and a 3.60 bullpen ERA (seventh). They’ve struck out 842 batters (second) over 762 1/3 innings.
The D-backs have had a solid bullpen, at least in terms of high-leverage arms. Taylor Clarke, Juan Morillo, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Ryan Thompson all have 30-plus appearances with sub-3.00 ERAs. Paul Sewald has struggled in the closer role with a 4.50 ERA, though he’s still 19-for-20 in save opportunities. Brandyn Garcia has a 2.33 ERA over 19 1/3 inning, Kevin Ginkel has a 3.06 ERA over 32 1/3 innings, and Drey Jameson’s 4.76 ERA (over just 11 1/3 innings) is actually the worst of the current bullpen. As a staff, the D-backs have a 4.32 team ERA (20th), including a 4.42 starter ERA (18th) and a 4.23 bullpen ERA (17th). They’ve struck out 580 batters (30th) over 756 2/3 innings.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, July 3 @ 8:45 p.m.: LHP Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.57 ERA, 3.03 FIP) vs. RHP José Cabrera (0-1, 3.60 ERA, 5.21 FIP)
Harrison continues to make his All-Star case in his first season in Milwaukee. Across 15 starts this year, he’s 8-1 with a 2.57 ERA, 3.03 FIP, and 96 strikeouts over 77 frames. He took a no-decision in his last outing as the bullpen wasn’t able to help him out. Over five frames against the Cubs, he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk, striking out nine on 92 pitches. Harrison made four appearances (three starts) against the D-backs as a Giant, going 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings.
Cabrera, 24, is a rookie who has made just two starts in the majors thus far. Signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2021, he’s 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA, 5.21 FIP, and seven strikeouts over 10 innings to begin his career, pitching in a pair of losses to the Twins and Rays. This obviously marks Cabrera’s first career appearance against Milwaukee.
Saturday, July 4 @ 8:40 p.m.: RHP Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 2.59 ERA, 3.11 FIP) vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (5-8, 5.84 ERA, 6.11 FIP)
Woodruff, who has had trouble staying on the field over the last few seasons, has looked fantastic in two starts since returning from his latest IL stint. Over 11 2/3 total innings against the Reds and Cubs, he allowed no runs on two hits and two walks, striking out 16. For the season, he’s 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 41 strikeouts over 41 2/3 innings. Woodruff has made nine career appearances (eight starts) against the D-backs, going 3-1 with a 4.65 ERA and 51 strikeouts across 40 2/3 innings.
Kelly, 37, does not look like the average pitcher he was in the last several seasons. In his eighth season in the majors, he has a career-worst 5.84 ERA and 6.11 FIP this year, with just 47 strikeouts over 81 2/3 innings through 14 starts. It’s really been a case of three seasons for Kelly. Here are his splits by month (he missed the first few weeks of the season due to injury):
- April: 3 GS, 1-2, 14 2/3 IP, 15 ER (9.20 ERA), 9 K, 2.250 WHIP, 5 HR
- May: 6 GS, 4-1, 38 2/3 IP, 15 ER (3.49 ERA), 24 K, 1.164 WHIP, 5 HR
- June: 5 GS, 0-5, 28 1/3 IP, 23 ER (7.31 ERA), 14 K, 1.659 WHIP, 8 HR
Let’s hope we see April/June Kelly and not May Kelly. He did get a start against the Brewers back in April, going five innings with five runs allowed and just one strikeout. For his career, he’s made 11 starts, going 5-3 with a 3.41 ERA and 61 strikeouts over 66 innings.
Sunday, July 5 @ 3:00 p.m.: RHP Brandon Sproat (3-4, 5.28 ERA, 5.00 FIP) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (7-2, 2.21 ERA, 3.98 FIP)
Despite his rough season-long numbers, Sproat has looked a lot better over his last several outings, including a pair of starts against the Reds in his last two appearances. In those games, he totaled 11 1/3 innings, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out 17 to pick up a pair of wins. Sproat started against the D-backs (and Rodriguez) back in late April of this year, allowing four runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five over 4 1/3 innings in a loss.
Rodriguez, 33, is an 11-year veteran who is quietly turning in a great season. Despite a FIP of 3.98, he has a much better 2.21 ERA, with a 7-2 record and 71 strikeouts over 102 innings through 17 starts. He’s been especially good of late, allowing just two runs on 14 hits and six walks while striking out 11 over 20 2/3 innings in wins over the Angels, Cardinals, and Giants in his last three outings. As I mentioned above, Rodriguez faced off against Sproat and the Brewers back in April. He went 4 2/3 innings with two runs allowed on five hits and four walks, striking out four in that one. For his career, he’s 0-3 with a 4.44 ERA and 20 strikeouts over 24 1/3 innings in five starts against the Crew.
How to Watch & Listen
Friday, July 3: Exclusively on Apple TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Saturday, July 4: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Sunday, July 5: Exclusively on Peacock/NBCSN Extra; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Prediction
The D-backs have been less than great the last few weeks, while the Brewers have looked a lot better. Give me the Crew to take two of three in the desert.
