We’ll start with a Heroes and Goats Note for those of you who follow the minutia. Trent Thornton’s disaster Friday ended up landing as the fifth-worst WPA game score of the season by a Cub pitcher, leaving Webb with the top four spots. Going backward through history, Daniel Palencia had two of the top four last year. Hector Neris had two of the three worst scores in 2024. I could not immediately eyeball the closer in 2023. In 2022, David Robertson won the Rizzo Award. In 2021, Craig Kimbrel finished
fourth. We don’t talk about the 2020 season. In 2019, Kimbrel had the two worst WPA game scores. In 2018 Pedro Strop won the Rizzo. In 2017, Wade Davis finished fourth for the Rizzo and also had the worst WPA game score of the year. So there is a quick and dirty tour of relievers and Heroes and Goats. They do get a lot of opportunity to accumulate WPA. The best ones do anyway. 100 H&G points, the first ever issued to all of you who can eyeball the closers in those boring Cub years where I didn’t immediately identify them (without going to any source).
Now back to the regularly scheduled action. Today was a flashback to an era gone by for me. Not because so many Cubs greats were in attendance at the game. I just thought my favorite TV show was showing a rerun today. It was the one where the good guys kicked butt start to finish. Not really a classic Hollywood script. Oh, there was a little fake inserted drama there towards the end of the first act. Where it seemed like this would be another tired episode where the bad guys had all of the fun. But really, just an old school romp for the good guys. At least when your favorite show is in reruns, they show a classic. I’m always here for it when the superstar hits three homers.
If you didn’t watch the Marquee broadcast with sound, you missed the line of the day. Greg Maddux was interviewed early and confirmed that he does still watch a fair bit of baseball. But then he said without missing a beat that he turns the sound off and just watches the game. I think Boog nearly choked on that one. He definitely didn’t miss it and asked a clarifying question to which Maddux quickly added that he does listen when John Smoltz is calling the game. I could also clearly picture his straight face when talking about PitchCom and that back in the day they got a LITTLE latitude off the plate. I think whole rivers ran between batters and the corners of the plate at times when those 90’s Braves teams were pitching. As if they weren’t lethal enough.
Listening to Maddux, Anthony Rizzo and Jon Lester all visit was fun. It was an entertaining broadcast. All joking aside, it ended up being one of the more entertaining games of the year. While this script has played out in SO many games this year, obviously it never gets old. I don’t know that there is much value to running the score up. I don’t imagine Seiya Suzuki is going to reminisce about the day he teed off on a position player. But the game goes on and I can’t see not trying to succeed regardless of what the guys on the other side are doing. The Cubs have split their last six games, getting shut out once. Also, they’ve scored 55 runs over that time. So unbelievable. This team has an immense ability to pile it on.
I’m pretty sure the drama has left the room. Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be the MVP. We’ve seen all of the experts change lanes over the last few weeks. Pete has so many impressive statistics. I see where Shohei Ohtani is going to maybe start pitching some innings down the stretch. I’m not sure it matters. People are using Pete to dump on WAR as a stat (including Anthony Rizzo). But he’s also right with the league leaders on WPA and he just has so many metrics pointing his way. He seems very likely now to reach 40/40. At some point, the defense and baserunning offsets Ohtani’s pitching numbers enough for him to win.
While I’m ranting on statistics and awards, let me say something about Sal Stewart. First, a disclaimer, I don’t watch nearly enough other baseball to have a hands on opinion regarding NL Rookie of the Year. Sal Stewart’s case is heating up because he leads the majors in runs batted in. Let’s flip Alex Bregman and Sal Stewart for a second. Stewart is a rookie on the Cubs, batting third and he bats with more traffic than any player in the major leagues. I don’t recall if Bregman is still there, but I know he was. But, in that spot, Stewart’s RBI would largely be context driven because he’s just batting with traffic all of the time. But they aren’t flipped. Stewart plays for the Reds. He might see the most traffic of any player on the Reds. The Reds are fourth from the bottom in on-base percentage. They have fewer men on base than all but two NL teams. And Stewart leads the league in RBI. Yes, RBI need context. The context is holy cow. If there are other reasons for Stewart not being RoY, that’s fine. But do not discount than man’s RBI. It’s impressive. (That stat by the way, Bregman has batted with 419 runners on base. Sal Stewart has batted with 365 runners on base, which is just nominally over an average number of runners – 357).
THREE POSITIVES:
- I miss having something on PCA every day. He tailed a little for a while there. Such are the problems when you unlock god-mode in a game, right? He was back in the zone today though. Four hits, three homers, six runs driven in four runs scored. Now fourth in the majors in homers, none of the top 10 have even 20 steals. OPS is second. I understand the value of pitching. But Ohtani would have to be throwing a ton of innings. Pete has the Jordan argument. He is the best offensive player in the National League. Also he is arguably the best defensive player in the National League. Also, we’ve moved away from this definition a fair bit, but the Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball if Ohtani misses the entire season injured. The Cubs are ordinary without Pete. Their pitching manages what it does (which isn’t great anyway) in large part because balls go to die in center.
- Carson Kelly, double, homer, walk, four runs driven in, three scored.
- Alex Bregman, single, double, homer, hit by pitch, three runs driven in, run scored.
- I could list a half dozen other players easily, but I just HAVE to hat tip Tyrone Taylor for a four-hit game with three runs scored and Ryan Zeferjahn, four up and four down while the game was still competitive.
Game 136, August 29: Cubs 17, Reds 5 (77-59)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.238). 4-6, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R
- Hero: Alex Bregman (.156). 3-5, HR, 2B, HBP, 3 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Pedro Ramirez (.113). 2-3, 2 BB, 3 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Kevin Gausman (-.138). 5 IP, 23 BF, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 R, 7 K (W 3-1)
- Goat: Michael Busch (-.053). 0-6
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.041). 1-5, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Eugenio Suarez’s two-run homer in the second. Yeah, that’s never happened before. Cut the Cub lead to one. (.141)
Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s two-run homer in the first. Extended the Cub lead to three. (.135)
Note: 88 WPA events were recorded in this game. 19 of them registered .000. Nico Hoerner’s RBI single was the last event that registered any WPA.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 135 Winner: Seiya Suzuki received 24 of 38 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +29
- Alex Bregman +22
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Javier Assad +12
- Shōta Imanaga +11
- Edward Cabrera -12.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Nico Hoerner -15
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -18.5
Scoreboard Watching: Brewers win (up eight on Cubs ). Phillies win (one back of Cubs). Diamondbacks split a double header (five behind Cubs). Dodgers lost (four ahead of Cubs). Padres lost (five back). Braves won (four up).
Up Next: 1-1 to start this 13 game stretch. The Cubs can win the series Sunday night. Shōta Imanaga (8-9, 3.78) was flipped with Gausman and given extra rest after a rough start in Seattle that the Cubs ended up winning by 17 after he left. He’s still 3-1 with a 2.65 over his last seven. He definitely has shown signs of wearing down, allowing eight earned runs in 12.2 innings over his last three starts. It would be great to get him back on track. Hopefully the wind is a little more tame after two big offensive days in a row.
23-year-old righty Chase Burns (14-3, 2.77) goes for the Reds. He’s tailing a bit (3-2, 3.41 over seven) and allowed five runs in 3.2 innings last time against the lowly Giants. Kudos to the Giants, I can’t remember too many times in my years where I’ve looked for a negative adjective for them. Chase has missed the Cubs so far this year. They saw him briefly last year in September in relief. He allowed three hits and a run in 1.1 innings. Nico Hoerner was the only current Cub who had a hit against him (an RBI single). Looking through his numbers, the Angels got him for five runs in 5.1 innings in April, the Pirates got him for five runs in six innings in June, the Guardians got him for five runs (one earned) in five innings in July, and the Nationals got him for five runs in 5.1 early August. He’s been roughed up in three of his last six starts and two of those were on the road. He’s 6-2 with a 3.53 on the road. He’s 9-3 with a 2.81 at night.
With this pitching matchup, Fangraphs still has the Cubs at 53.3 percent to win this game. That may even be tweaked upwards after a lopsided win in the series. I think the Cubs can win this one. But Imanaga has got to limit the damage and the Cubs have to work the pitch count.
