Who will claim the REAL Death Valley?
The 2025 season is finally upon us and it is coming like a loaded 18-wheeler downhill with no air for the brakes! It doesn’t get a whole lot bigger than having a top 10 matchup in Death Valley under the lights! Who knows how many of these non-conference bouts in the regular season we will get as conferences expand to 9 conference games, so let’s enjoy this one. A new thing I’m going to do this year for the game previews is my X factor for each phase. I’m going to try to predict a less heralded guy
who, if Clemson wins, makes a big play.
Clemson is entering 2025 with the highest expectations the program has seen since Trevor Lawrence. On paper, the Tigers appear to have all the necessary pieces to make a deep run in search for a fourth National Title and third under Dabo Swinney. While this first game won’t make or break the opportunity, it certainly is going to go a long way to either justifying Clemson as a true contender or refuel the naysayers the program has accumulated since 2021.
LSU comes in with similar aspirations and also similar looming doubts. They have had less overall success and a coaching change since winning a battle of superteams with Clemson for the 2019 National Title. One team is going to walk out of this game with huge momentum and potentially a top 2 ranking (I expect the Texas/OSU winner to be ranked 1 next week). The loser is going to have to chase the lingering questions and have a lot of heavy lifting to do to get back in the elite conversation. Let’s get to the matchups!
Clemson Offense vs. LSU Defense: Both teams enter this game with presumably fewer questions on the offensive side of the ball. Like LSU, Clemson returns a decorated, veteran quarterback who is an early Heisman Trophy favorite and projected first round draft choice. Clemson is now in year three of the Garrett Riley era, and potentially has the firepower to rival those elite Clemson squads from 2015-2020. Can this team handle the hyperbole that has mounted over the course of the summer? It certainly appears that the returning stars of this team have taken their preparation seriously, and guys like Antonio Williams are often described as “pros” by the staff. However, I certainly struggle to recall when there wasn’t a lot of positive stuff being said about preparation ahead of game 1, and the Tigers laid eggs in 2021, 2023, and last season.
Matt Luke has been a Godsend as offensive line coach, and he has a veteran group of players to work with. Both of these teams feature high level skill players, but as Clemson learned the hard way to open the ill-fated 2008 season, if you can’t win up front, the toys outside don’t amount to much. I favor Clemson in the trenches on both sides of this matchup, and the home Tigers stand the best chance to establish some sense of balance with the run and pass. If guys like Harold Perkins prove to wreck Clemson’s blocking schemes and protections, it will be a different story. It didn’t take long to see Clemson’s OL had little chance of success against Alabama in 2009 and UGA in 2021. However, Clemson’s OL was not really the issue in the UGA loss last year and they held up well enough. This LSU front, though talented, is not on par with what UGA brought last year and certainly back in 2021. I think Luke and his group can win more often than not here provided injury doesn’t force shuffling like we saw late in 2024.
My eyes, and I’m sure the eyes of most Clemson supporters, will be honed in on Adam Randall to see if he can indeed establish himself as a true RB1 this season. I do feel Clemson will eventually be deep enough to have a guy emerge here, especially when Jay Haynes is back in the mix, to be OK if Randall isn’t able to do it, but that won’t help in this game. Clemson certainly can ill afford for Cade Klubnik to have to shoulder lead rushing duties like he had to late last year. Klubnik has worked hard to build his body, but he won’t ever be able to stand up to the rushing loads that Tajh Boyd, Deshaun Watson, and Kelly Bryant often took on.
LSU’s defense was not good against the pass last year, and there has been a lot of talk about how much more improved in this area they are. Of course, we heard about how much Clemson’s offense and skill group outside had improved last year ahead of the UGA game and it didn’t show up until after that game. LSU’s defenses over the last few seasons have been a lot like what we saw from Clemson’s defense last year. You have splash plays and flashes of great talent, but a lot of inconsistency and lapses in too many instances to get over the hump. LSU has too many good players to not make some plays in this game defensively, but Clemson just needs to make sure those aren’t game changers like the pick-six UGA had in 2021 or the sack/fumble TD FSU got in 2023.
X Factor: Tyler Brown: Heard so much positive about Brown’s preseason that he gets my nod here.
Clemson Defense vs. LSU Offense: I certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but it is hard for me not to think this is the most pivotal matchup of the game. Clemson now has Tom Allen running the defense and certainly has multiple guys in the front seven who have shown they can be difference makers. Now the question is can those guys be difference makers consistently and at the same time? LSU has a retooled offensive line, which in theory could mean cohesion and communication are still a work in progress. Clemson has to take advantage of this up front and guys eyeing high NFL draft selections like Peter Woods and TJ Parker need to prove they cannot be handled one on one in really any circumstance. Micheal Dean Perry is going to join the Ring of Honor during this game, and I’m old enough to remember his senior season when he won ACC Player of the Year as a defensive tackle and was an absolute game wrecker. I might look back and mock myself, but seeing a truly in shape Peter Woods has me thinking Woods could be that type of presence this season for the Clemson defense.
If my eyes are going to be on Adam Randall and the Clemson running game offensively, they no doubt are going to be on Clemson’s run defense when LSU has the ball. Last season was an embarrassment in this regard, with the cherry on top being Texas topping 300 yards on the ground in the playoff game. Texas had talented backs to be sure, but that same offense managed a mere 53 rushing yards against Arizona State’s defense the next week. It is one thing to give up some big rushing totals to an elite running team or option team, but what we saw last year was pathetic in every sense of the word. I have full faith that Allen and his staff are going to get this straightened out, but how quickly that happens and shows up is a major mystery at this point. Simply put, LSU cannot be allowed to establish any kind of running game. They might throw for 400 yards but that has to be the way they are forced to try to move the ball.
LSU has scary speed on the perimeter and no doubt can get a cheap TD at any time. Clemson’s back end will be tasked with having to make LSU earn what they get, which means contested catches and limited YAC. I have no doubt we are going to see more than one pass interference call on both defenses, but in Clemson’s case, that needs to be to prevent a big play score and not just sloppy technique or lack of awareness.
LSU is likely going to try to find whoever goes out as the safety opposite Khalil Barnes and check the oil on that guy. I expect a lot of pre-snap shifts and motions looking to reveal Clemson’s coverage and create some of the alignment issues that plagued the Tiger defense last year. Assuming Barnes is 100%, or at least close enough to start, then it will either be Kylon Griffin, Ricardo Jones, or Ronan Hanafin that will be in the crosshairs of LSU’s coaching staff and QB Garrett Nussmeier.
However, as stated earlier, if Clemson’s front can whip LSU’s OL, there won’t be a whole lot those Tigers can do beyond hoping a contested fade route or screen play can pop for them. It is past time for Capehart and Woods in particular to earn their current NIL pay and eventual NFL pay.
X-FACTOR: Ricardo Jones: Tom Allen’s press remarks yesterday has me looking at Jones for this game.
Special Teams: This phase looms like a specter over my game previews seemingly since forever. If this game is as evenly matched as it appears to be, this phase will be even more critical than usual. I was in Jacksonville for the Gator Bowl with Kentucky, and Clemson’s defense had appeared to have gotten a good handle on the Wildcat offense, but then Barrion Brown, now an LSU Tiger, housed a kick return that got the second half fireworks really going. But it cuts both ways as we saw in Charlotte last year when it was an Adam Randall kick return that led to a Nolan Hauser 56-yard FG to win the game. Houser clearly inspires confidence that he can make a money kick if needed, but how well Clemson has cleaned up protection issues that plagued the team last year remains to be seen. Massive freshman Brayden Jacobs may get his first action as a part of the FG protection unit.
Can Clemson generate any kind of explosive return? They certainly have guys who can do it but these have been few and far between over the last few seasons. I expect Jack Smith to be the first guy Dabo tries at punter despite all the “game time decision” talk we have heard on this front. Smith just has to execute the basics and avoid disaster, really. It might be a roulette of punters until somebody can do it with the lights on otherwise.
The aforementioned Barrion Brown definitely has me concerned about Clemson being buttoned up on coverage units. Clemson has more staff to dedicate to this phase than ever before, so hopefully there won’t be any game changing plays against Clemson’s special teams.
X Factor: David Eziomume: I think Randall being RB1 means EZ-E gets the nod at kick return and maybe he can pop a good one.
Overall: These are always hard games to predict. Even if Clemson was playing someone like Boston College, the game 1 factor always has so many unknowns and unexpected variables. Did Kansas State foresee their best offensive skill guy muff the first punt AND get hurt early in their game last week? Of course not. Unless one team races out to a big lead, this will likely resemble games like the 2023 Gator Bowl or the 2013 UGA opener with both teams landing punches before one defense can get some control or offense finds a way to expose a crack they find in the other’s personnel. That 2013 UGA game was a coming out party for Vic Beasley, who ended up owning UGA’s left tackle in some key situations. I’m thinking someone along Clemson’s defense front will ultimately be the difference maker in this one for Clemson to notch a monumental opening win.
Clemson 35-LSU 31
