It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that the Dallas Mavericks desperately need guard help. Cooper Flagg was thrusted into the role early, which obviously led to a ton of early struggles. While development was certainly had, playing point is never going to be the way to best optimize the newest rookie of the year.
Because of that, it seems to be most logical that Dallas must use their lottery pick on a guard. However, this draft does offer a couple of interesting scenarios
if the Mavericks choose not to do so. There are some very interesting depth pieces in this draft that could be available in the 20 to 25 range. Guys like Christian Anderson (Texas Tech), Bennett Stirtz (Iowa), Ebuka Okorie (Stanford) and Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt) are all mid-to-late first round guards that the Mavericks could very well fall in love with. If that happens, it makes this draft far more intriguing at the top. With that and mind, let’s run through some quick scenarios.
If the Mavericks jump into the top two…
Let’s assume the Mavericks stick and pick here, although trading back a couple of spots and recouping some of the draft assets they’ve traded over the years isn’t a bad idea. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson are likely going to be the top two picks, and whichever one the Mavericks would be lucky enough to take will be difference makers. Dybantsa is more of your scoring wing type, while Peterson is an elite combo guard. Regardless of who the selection is here, it doesn’t fill the point guard need for the Mavs. However, there’s simply nobody else you would select here.
If the Mavericks jump to third or fourth…
Things get a bit more interesting here, as the two players who are widely expected to go in this range are Duke’s Cam Boozer and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson. The talent of those two guys are both overwhelming, but the fit is more murky. Boozer’s athleticism concerns are real, as well as his fit defensively in the NBA. Wilson is an A++ athlete, with the potential to be the best defender in this class. However, his offensive fit would be very clunky, as Wilson will provide very little floor spacing around Flagg, who isn’t a marksman from deep himself.
I could paint a really good argument that Dallas should simply take the guard they like the most at this spot, even though he wouldn’t likely be drafted until fifth at the earliest. If they don’t, the talent is undeniable with Boozer and Wilson that they can easily justify the pick. This spot is a great place to be in, as you’ll either take a fantastic player, or get a nice package to move back from someone who is desperate for their guy.
If the Mavericks pick eighth or worse…
This scenario is very simple to me. The Mavericks should simply take the best available guard on the board, unless they fall in love with a guy in the twenties. There are five really good guards in this class, with the run likely starting at pick five. At eight, you won’t get your first choice of who you like, but you’ll likely still be picking an elite, five-star prospect.
At nine and ten, the choices get a bit more funky. If they go with a guard, they have to accept that you’re dropping a tier level in talent that would certainly invite forwards into the equation. If you get to that point, I’d be hammering the phone lines to move back in the order. This isn’t a great forward class at the top, but the depth stretches all the way through the lottery and into the teens. If the Mavs choose to go forward early and guard later, getting an extra late lottery or mid-teens pick is a savvy way to go about it.
The verdict
The way I see it, there shouldn’t be a mandate that the Mavericks must take a point guard. Taking the best player available is always a prudent strategy, and if the Mavericks jump or fall to a certain point, taking a guard might not make sense. Because this team isn’t under pressure to win right now, they need to acquire as much top-level talent as possible and try and develop it together. Depending on where that is, it might come from someone other than a guard.
