It’s week 4 of the NFL season, and the 1-2 Washington Commanders will be facing a 1-2 Indianapolis Colts team at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET. The Colts are in a bit of a similar situation as the Commanders. The Colts also started the season 0-2, losing to the Ravens in week 1 and the Chiefs in week 2, before winning an upset victory in week 3 against their division-rivals, the Houston Texans. The Colts coaching staff also find themselves on the hotseat and might
consider this a must-win game despite how early it is in the season.
On offense, the Colts are coached by HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter, both of whom have been running the Colts offense since 2023. Washington fans may remember Steichen for his time as OC of the Philadelphia Eagles from 2021-2022. From his time with the Eagles and through to the Colts, Steichen has run a primarily shotgun-based offense (55.6% shotgun rate) that makes heavy use of under-center formation and play action (20.3% play action rate, 3rd-highest in the NFL).
It’s hard to describe Steichen’s offense as it’s not exactly a West Coast offense and it doesn’t exactly fit into the mold of other offenses. Steichen’s offense is really a deceptively simple, yet flexible offense that attempts to create a lot of options from the same looks. It builds in lots of layers in the passing game, so that QBs have options to throw it to all levels of the field depending on what coverage is called. It’s foundation is the run game, built around RB Jonathan Taylor, who combines track-star speed (running a 4.39 40-time) and elite tackle-breaking agility and power. The success of the run game sets up the play-action passing game, freezing pass rushers long enough to allow QB Daniel Jones to make deep throws all over the field.
However, the Colts vertical passing game will be hindered with the loss of WR Alex Pierce to injury, as he was their primary field-stretcher. Without Pierce, the Colts passing game has largely funneled through WR Josh Downs, who only received 4 targets in week 1 alongside a healthy Alex Pierce, but has received a shocking 20 targets over weeks 2 & 3 with Alec Pierce sidelined. Downs lines up primarily in the slot, so his potential matchup on CB Mike Sainristil will be something to monitor.
On defense, the Colts are in their second season with DC Lou Anarumo, former longtime DC of the Bengals. Nominally, Anarumo runs a 4-3 defense, though in reality he makes heavy use of variable fronts and disguises. The Colts DL is headlined by former All-Pro DT DeForest Buckner and 2024 1st-round pick DE Laiatu Latu (who had 8.5 sacks last season). Anarumo had a DB coaching background before being elevated to coordinator, which shows in his variable coverage structures and heavy use of disguise and last-minute rotations in coverage. Anarumo’s defense ends up in man coverage at a 30.1% rate, 3rd-highest in the NFL.
The problem with man coverage is it only works as well as its weakest link, so it requires multiple DBs who are good in man coverage. I think this is the reason the Colts signed former All-Pro CB Charvarius Ward in the 2025 offseason and traded two 1st-round picks for repeat All-Pro CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner during the 2025 season, probably believing that the latter would solidify the secondary. Unfortunately, that has not come to fruition, as teams continue to pick on the other weak links in the Colts secondary, primarily in the middle of the field.
The result is a defense that has allowed the 3rd-most passing yards and 4th-most rushing yards through three games this year. A big part of the problem with this defense has been missed tackles. The Colts had 9 missed tackles against the Ravens in week 1 and 19 (!!) missed tackles against the Chiefs in week 2, before dropping down to 4 missed tackles against the Texans in week 3. It remains to be seen if the improvement in week 3 is a trend or a fluke.
I asked Chris Shepherd of Stampede Blue five questions to better understand the state of the Colts and what to look for in this game.
1) The Colts defense gave up more than 500 yards in each of their first two games, but managed to hold the Texans to 223 yards and 17 points. What did the Colts do more effectively on defense last week and do you think the defense will stay improved going forward or was last week more about the Texans struggles on offense?
The Colts defense underwent some big changes this offseason jettisoning long time defensive leaders, Zaire Franklin and Kenny Moore. Fans were largely tired of Franklin’s on and off field antics and most believed Moore’s best days were behind him. Ultimately it was the right move to attempt a soft reset on a defensive leadership group that had yet to find any sort of sustained success.
They remade the linebacker corps with a mix of rookies and mid to low tier free agent additions. They replaced Nick Cross with third round rookie AJ Halucy and overhauled the defensive line rotation.
Ultimately, it’s going to take time for this defense to find their footing. Sunday was a good showing, no doubt. They did a great job stopping the run and rushing CJ Stroud, but I believe their success had more to do with Houston’s offensive ineptitude than it marking some sort of tide turning moment for the Indy defense. Each week we should see the defense make incremental improvements before finally getting up to speed around week 8 or 9. I will be skeptical until they perform well against a quality offensive opponent.
2) What is your opinion of Daniel Jones and is he the future of the franchise? By the way, when Jones was on the Giants, he always played his best games against Washington, so I’m not looking forward to this matchup.
Daniel Jones is the guy Indy should have had starting at quarterback when they drafted Anthony Richardson.
Jones is a fine quarterback when surrounded by a good supporting cast and good play caller/offensive system. You’ll win games with him, not because of him. Meanwhile, if the supporting cast or play calling break down, he can lose you games without strong defensive performances, when he presses too hard or tries to force plays. Last week was the perfect encapsulation of who Jones is. He largely kept the offense moving, made some really good throws, stayed on schedule, made good checks at the line and kept things running smoothly for the majority of the game.
He also threw a baffling interception and gave up two fumbles on avoidable strip sacks.
If not for those three plays, Jones would have been great against a very good Texans defense. Instead Indy was fighting for its life inside of a minute to play in the fourth quarter.
3) What is your opinion of GM Chris Ballard and HC Shane Steichen? Ballard has been in position since 2017 and Steichen since 2023, yet neither has seen the Colts win the division in their tenure.
I have a lot of sympathy for Ballard. In his first year as GM he had Josh McDaniels back out as his first head coaching hire (in hindsight this was a good thing, but it was highly embarrassing at the time) despite having already started to fill out McDaniels’ coaching staff and having several of his handpicked coaches already under contract.
He believed he was walking into a situation with a long-term answer at quarterback only to have Andrew Luck retire after his second season as GM. He has weathered every unprecedented storm that has come his way and stayed true to his vision and process. I really respect that.
On the other hand, during his tenure the Colts have failed to develop into a winner. He used a 2023 top 5 pick on a (so far) busted quarterback and only got another year at the helm in 2026 because the first 8 games last season were a whole lot of fun to watch. He should have been fired a season ago, but he’s still here, there’s no point crying about it with every other statement like so many Colts fans do. Hopefully the moves he made last offseason make sense once December rolls around. We’ll see.
I think Steichen is a very good game planner and play caller. He has struggled to get his teams in the win column in a lot of very winnable games but largely I think he should stick around if Ballard gets the boot. Afterall, he is as much a victim of Ballard’s failed attempts to find a franchise quarterback as anyone.
4) Who is one Colts player on offense and one player on defense that Washington fans probably don’t know much about, but should?
I’m not sure how much Commanders fans know about Josh Downs, but I expect they’ll hear his name a lot this weekend. Downs is incredibly hard to cover in man and thus far has been the Colts answer on third down. With Alec Pierce out, Downs will be the de facto WR1 in Indy.
Defensively, Adetomiwa Adebawore has found a place in the defensive line rotation as a defensive tackle on pass downs. Last week he only logged 15 snaps but turned that opportunity into 1.5 sacks, a QB hit and a tackle for loss. I hope his success will lead to a larger snap share as the season goes on.
5) How should Washington go about gameplanning this matchup on both sides of the ball?
Defensively they should sell out to stop Jonathan Taylor and force Jones to beat them. That’s a bet I’d make every week if I were an opposing defensive coordinator. Rotate coverage post snap, confuse DJ’s pre-snap reads and profit. Offensively, they need to plan on heavy play action, working on the Colts linebackers who have bit hard on every fake so far this season. Work between the hashes and get Chig Okonkwo involved early and often.
The Colts are obviously aware that these are their current issues and will be working to overcome them as the weeks go on, but if I were the Commanders, I would make them prove that they have actually improved in these areas because I’m really not sure they have.
A companion article to this with my answers to Chris’s questions will be linked here when it is available.
Thanks again to Chris Shepherd for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Colts.
