Duck Tape: Film Analysis of Oklahoma State Football

Special thanks to Cody Stovall of Locked On Oklahoma State for joining me to discuss the Cowboys’ roster on this week’s podcast:

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Nota bene: The officially released two-deep for this Saturday’s game is identical to last Thursday’s opener against UT-Martin with a single widely expected change. As the previous document proved to be highly unreliable, with nearly a dozen players listed as starters not even seeing the field against the Skyhawks and a number who appear on this week’s edition being guys

Cody has on good authority won’t be available for the indefinite future, I can’t recommend using it as a guide for keeping track of the Pokes. A full recounting of each player — those who did play, those who were expected to and surprised by sitting out, those who were hurt in week 1 and their status, and those who might use the trip to Eugene to make their debut — is on the podcast, and I’ll summarize availability and implications in this article.

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Oklahoma State has made substantial changes to its program for the 2025 season, after a very disappointing 2024 in which they finished 3-9 and winless in conference play. That was all the more surprising because it was a veteran team of super-seniors at that point, with a roster and coaching staff largely intact and made up of personnel who’d racked up 45 wins over the previous five seasons.

This past offseason, between firing every assistant coach, large-scale departures through the transfer portal, and the delayed graduation of the covid eligibility holiday holdovers, head coach Gundy made over this team to one that’s almost completely different from the one I’d charted for the 2024 season. But given all the new personnel, certain units in which the few returners beat out transfers for starting jobs last Thursday became all the more intriguing for doing so.

The opener against the Pokes’ FCS opponent was “underwhelming” as Cody described it, which I thought was understandable. While they led the entire game and the Skyhawks’ only score came on a trick play, it wasn’t exactly a dominant performance overall, there were several unfortunate injuries which may significantly constrain the options for the season, and drilling into the fundamentals there were some aspects of performance that actually graded out worse than last year.

Cody suggested that some of the playbook might have been kept vanilla for this opponent — an evergreen comment, though usually with a grain of truth to it — but he also told me about several starters in that game who were either big surprises to him or who underperformed badly enough that there’s a good chance we see different players in their spots on Saturday. The podcast was pretty enlightening – I always learn a lot from conversation with guests but it’s rare, due to Oklahoma State’s somewhat unique circumstances and a bit of the cloak & dagger routine, for me to have learned more this way than through film study.

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Offense

Gundy hired OC Meacham — a former offensive lineman for the Pokes, who’d blocked for Barry Sanders and Gundy himself in their playing days — to return to Stillwater and run the offense. I’ve previously done a two-year film study on Meacham’s offenses at TCU and most of the same bag of tricks was immediately recognizable – the Air Raid-derived passing pattern backed by a frequent constraint plays in the inside run game and horizontal stretch plays, along with frequent rolling pockets and an option run scheme which take advantage of a mobile quarterback, all with the purpose of getting safeties out of the way to take shots and generate explosive vertical passing plays at opportune moments.

Cody and I both hit on the same quarterback comparison for #8 QB Hejny, the starter low 4-star TCU transfer from the 2024 cycle who won the job last Thursday, which was Trevone Boykin who played for Meacham with the Horned Frogs a decade ago – they have almost exactly the same physical build and stature, and most importantly don’t lose any velocity on their throws when rolling out of the pocket and throwing on the move. Cody told me about quite a bit of excitement in the Pokes fanbase for Hejny’s start last Thursday, but it was unfortunately cut short because on the last play of the third drive pressure got through the line and Hejny took a low hit as he was releasing the ball … he evidently has a broken bone in his foot and will miss at least the next several games and possibly the rest of the regular season.

The backup who took over for the rest of the game and will likely continue for the indefinite future is #6 QB Flores, a high 3-star recruited to Oklahoma State in 2023. He’s taller and more of a pocket passer, and I think less of an ideal fit for Meacham’s offense. There were two factors that made teasing out Flores’ intrinsic ability from the numbers he put up on Thursday challenging: first, Cody and I agreed that the real issue was that the offensive line hasn’t come together particularly well and Flores isn’t getting the protection that he requires much more than Hejny would have; second, there’s effectively no depth behind Flores (just a true freshman and a walk-on, both of whom Cody said wouldn’t be ready and it’d be better to go to a converted wide receiver I’ll discuss below) so we both figured the option game was suffering because he was under instruction not to keep the ball and leave the pocket even if the read said to, since the team couldn’t risk his injury as well.

At any rate, the difference in outcomes between the two QBs last week was stark, a decline in every metric I track from charting ranging from efficiency to explosiveness, with especially notable gaps in pushing the ball downfield which I think stem from having diminished access to the ways that Meacham’s offense engineers those vertical shots:

Still, the passing game was the primary way the offense moved the ball and won the game last week, and they significantly improved on their dismal passing efficiency numbers from the 2024 season … particularly on 3^rd downs, while they were only 32% successful throwing the ball overall and a horrific 19% on 3^rd & long last year, their 3^rd down passing efficiency doubled on Thursday.

Here’s a representative sample of successful passing plays against UT-Martin:

(Reminder – you can use the button in the lower right corner to control playback speed)

1. :00 – Quick efficiency passes like this multiple hitch pattern ruled the roost once Flores went in, considering the protection. The defense has seven in the box and the safety right over them with off-man coverage drifting back on 2^nd & 5, an unnecessary amount of respect for the run game and too little attention to Freeman as the primary chain-mover, as it would turn out.
2. :07 – Flores gets a breather in a clean pocket and lets the ball rip to Davis. The Pokes went hurry up after this (though got stymied in the red zone as they kept going backwards in the run game) so appallingly we didn’t get a replay of this incredible catch. He’s got to forcibly create some spacing from the CB after earning downfield position with his speed because the ball is a little underthrown, which is why he’s got to snag it with his left arm alone while diving.
3. :16 – Freeman lined up as an RB and H-back several times, it was always a tip-off the throw was to him. They’re unbalanced to the field and the TE Ford is throwing what would be an illegal pick if this were a downfield pass so the whole play is a set piece, taking advantage of the man in coverage getting caught in traffic and the wide defender not just taking over as he would in zone.
4. :31 – Another play exploiting man coverage, the RB wheels out and the LB just can’t make it against the cross current. They rule the back stepped out but after three tries the same back eventually punched it in.

And unsuccessful passing plays:

1. :00 – The read defender has induced the QB to pull it on the RPO after stepping inside on the run, but once he does he immediately reads the QB’s eyes and backs out wide. Hejny tries to change the arm angle around the defender and sends it way off of Abshire’s ability to adjust. This is generally the right way to play the Pokes’ offense – plan on it being a pass, not a run, and get it off target.
2. :06 – Here’s seven-man protection vs a four-man simulated pressure, so Flores should know the math doesn’t add up. He sees that Fitzpatrick fooled the corner on the inside move and immediately takes his shot but has forgotten about the safety. He might have gotten away with it on a better placed ball, taking a bit off and putting it to the outside shoulder to lead him away from the safety, but as it is Fitzpatrick has to act like a DB to prevent the pick.
3. :28 – The left side of the line might have handled the stunt by handing down to the LG and LT so the C is free to take the looper, but they just get stuck. The RG is losing his guy so the back incorrectly goes to help him instead of staying in place to pick up the looper, who gets a sack because Flores couldn’t get it away in time.
4. :52 – Here it is 3^rd & 20 and the FCS opponent is rushing three. The RT lunges and whiffs, the C chases his guy from behind instead of gaining depth to help the backer the LT has lost, and the QB dumps it off behind the line of scrimmage much too high and the receiver drops it.

Other than perhaps the QB, the most significant unit affecting the offense is the line. Watching the 2024 tape, this was by far the most baffling unit on the entire team — though Cody told me its issues were a stand-in and just the most visible for cultural ones plaguing the whole roster — because every one of the starters were from the 2019 cycle and had more or less been playing together for half a decade through several strong seasons, so 2024 should have been a dominant swan song for them. But instead they did double damage – the 2024 seniors played exceptionally poorly, and since there was no garbage time to give to the developmental linemen (and the previous staff refused to pull any of the seniors) they sucked up all the oxygen, as it were, and left the 2025 group without any experience.

Cody and I spent quite some time talking through how this unfortunate situation came to be as well as the depth of the unit — quite relevant since Oregon and Oklahoma have a home-and-home series and look to see each other again in 2026, so I’ll be keeping tabs on how the developmental backbone of this team is coming along over the next calendar year — but the upshot is that for 2025, despite returning ten scholarship linemen (far better than most teams with this level of roster turnover) very few were ready to play. As such the Pokes found themselves doing the same thing that almost all teams in their cohort do: assemble their starting line largely from the transfer portal. Longtime readers will confidently guess the results.

From left to right, the starters last week were #70 LT Samuel from Appalachian State, #76 LG Schick from Virginia Tech, #52 C Carpenter from Tulsa, #51 OL Kawecki who started out at RG, and at RT they were doing a drive-by-drive rotation between redshirt freshman #69 RT Mafi and #77 OL McKinney who’d previously transferred in from UNLV. Cody told me that their preferred depth options both transferred in this offseason, #71 OL Brumfield from Snow College and #66 OL Canepa from New Mexico State. However, during the game the center Carpenter was injured and Cody said he’s not going to be available any time soon. The solution was to move Kawecki over to center, and stop the tackle rotations with McKinney playing the rest of the game at RG and Mafi at RT, which Cody said will probably continue to be the case on Saturday. He also said that Brumfield and Canepa have gotten hurt themselves, and so the next man up is a 2023 low 3-star I haven’t seen on the field yet, #75 OL Sanders, though if my arithmetic is correct he’d be the line’s 9^th man.

For receiving options, there were several curious moves on Thursday. At tight end, the Pokes had a returning true sophomore in #40 TE Ford who evidently they were very excited about as a receiving option (I didn’t get it from his numbers last year, 41.7% efficiency and 6.5 adjusted YPT, but Cody was quite insistent) in addition to a redshirt senior who was already the team’s established veteran blocker, #82 TE Stewart. They then took four transfers, two of whom were from the 2024 cycle without playing time last year so it was understandable that they didn’t play, but the utilization of the other two was very puzzling. Those were #87 TE Hammond from North Texas and #86 TE Monney from Utah State, and they were both pretty productive at their previous schools last year.

But Hammond didn’t play at all, and Cody said it’s uncertain if he’ll make the trip to Eugene. Ford and Stewart both played, but they were used exclusively as blockers, not a surprise for Stewart but Cody said he was shocked that this was so for Ford and even more so because they already had Stewart for that purpose (he also suggested that this might have been concealing some offensive firepower and expected to see a lot more targets for Ford in the future). Monney got the only target of the game, a short H-back screen for a lot fewer yards than his average at Utah State.

At wide receiver, there were a couple more surprises for me as an outside observer, though Cody said most of them were already known to Oklahoma State fans. Two of the more touted prospects didn’t play: #19 WR Lloyd from Nebraska who Cody said was just buried after being moved around a lot, and the highest rated player on the team in the 24/7 composite mid 4-star #5 WR Shettron who’s hurt and out for the year, sadly. Another surprise Cody had for me was telling me that #9 WR Shotomide-King, who was an unrated Juco and I only saw get four meaningful catches last year and didn’t play on Thursday, was just banged up a little and might make the trip tomorrow … and doing so would push out of the line-up #7 WR Rigby, a former Boilermaker I watched last year as a true freshman and didn’t produce great numbers (only 44% success) but on an even worse offense than the Pokes and who looked on tape to be a talented guy and I thought played pretty well on Thursday.

It wasn’t a surprise that the starting slot receiver wound up with the most targets and efficiency in the opener — that’s typical to an offense in the Pokes’ situation — though the fact that it was #17 WR Freeman, a former low 3-star who’d previously come in from Oklahoma and only had five meaningful targets last year on tape that didn’t knock my socks off, did take me back a bit. Also intriguing was the backup in the slot who rotated in quite a bit, #18 WR Jackson, who started out at TCU as a QB, then transferred to Cal where I wrote up the prospects for him as a starter pretty dimly (he lost the job in short order to now-Indiana starter Fernando Mendoza), then left for Auburn where he was converted to a wide receiver … as Cody and I discussed, Jackson and Freeman’s utilization was somewhat different, he definitely throws some great blocks, and he puts the fear of a trick play into the defense whenever he touches the ball, which actually might make Jackson QB3.

But I think the biggest surprise was Division-II transfer #2 WR T. Davis, who Cody and I agreed is best described as a raw athlete and relatively new to football. He caught both of the game’s huge 40-yard passes, one apiece from each QB, and while the ball was in flight watching live I didn’t think he was coming down with either one because the coverage was pretty well in place, but his speed, vertical, and hands won out. But Davis also miscalculated the trajectory on a couple of easier balls, so it was a bit of frustrating tape. Rounding out the receiver corps were three guys who lined up outside, #16 WR Fitzpatrick from Marshall, #14 WR Abshire who’s also a Div-II transfer, and #5 WR Lofton who’d previously come in from Virginia Tech. Fitzpatrick and Abshire are both listed at 6’4”, though it was a little odd to see Lofton on the outside because he’s 5’11” and was in the slot last year ahead of Freeman.

The running game in 2024 was a real letdown from its heights in 2023 when Ollie Gordon ran for over 1,700 yards and won the Doak Walker award … he returned and carried the ball just about as often (around a third of all plays both years) but ran for only half the yards in 2024, at 1.5 yards per carry and 50 yards per game fewer in raw stats. I thought the bizarre collapse of the offensive line’s effectiveness was the major culprit here in watching all of the 2024 film; I have a few games from 2023 charted for other projects and Cody confirmed my suspicions that the line had just played better the year before, so he was on the lookout for how this entirely reconstructed run game — Gordon was drafted in the 6^th round by the Dolphins, and the line has been put together from scratch — would perform.

Early returns have not been very encouraging, unfortunately. If 2024 was a disappointment at a 51% success rate and 4.3 adjusted YPC, the run game in the 2025 FCS opener was a disaster at 34% and 2.7 on designed runs (excluding QB sacks and scrambles, as well as garbage time). Every one of the linemen had over 27% error rates on my tally sheet in run blocking, with the highest going to both guys who played center at over 36%. The transfers on the left side were a little less problematic than the right side returners were in pass protection, but run blocking was an across-the-board issue with frequent fundamental problems on tape with understanding the basic assignments in Meacham’s zone scheme.

The running back order surprised me on Thursday, and Cody had more surprises for me on the podcast. Of the returners, the back I liked the most in 2024 was #24 RB Howland, a senior and very big back who’d previously come over from Indiana and was the only back in the unit last year — including Gordon — who could be his own blocker and run at a high success rate, over 70% for 5.3 adjusted YPC, and I thought he should have been given more than a few dozen carries. However, he didn’t play at all against UT-Martin, and Cody was very mysterious about the reasons why – it was apparently not injury related or a serious issue, so he should eventually return to the lineup, but Cody didn’t have an exact timeline.

Cody thought that Howland would be the second back in behind the ideal starter, returner #20 RB Fields. I barely saw Fields as he played in four games to preserve his redshirt as a freshman last year, though I wasn’t bowled over by his tape at only a 47% success rate and just under 4.9 YPC, and he’s on the smaller side so he needed blocking help that wasn’t there last year (Fields broke a couple of 20-yard runs to pull up his mean average, but his stuff rate was much higher than usual for an FBS back such that his median carry was 2 yards). So I was surprised to hear Cody say he’d be the starter if he’s healthy enough to make the trip – he missed the opener on apparently some lingering injury issues.

The primary back we saw on last Thursday was #1 RB Hicks, who’s maybe the last guy I’d have guessed looking at the list of transfers and returners in the Summer, other than a couple of obvious developmental freshmen. He was a lightly used redshirt freshman in 2024 at Oklahoma who ran for 2.2 yards per game, by far the least experienced of the five (!) backs listed as “OR”s on the official depth chart, but he was the starter and got more than half of all meaningful carries for … 2.2 adjusted YPC. As Cody identified, he didn’t show the patience running in zone to find the hole and kept bouncing outside to get strung out to the sideline. They next went to Georgia State transfer #25 RB Brock, who got three carries which were all unsuccessful.

The rest of meaningful play and into garbage time the ball went to returner #3 RB Vailahi, who had the same success rate against UT-Martin that he did last year, about 44% (that was the worst on the team in 2024 but it’s the best on the team so far in 2025), and improved his adjusted YPC from last year’s 2.4 to 3.6. I speculated that the staff might have re-evaluated the order and put Vailahi ahead of Hicks based on that relatively stronger performance and Cody agreed, though he still has Vailahi behind Fields and Howland if they play.

Here’s what most of the run game looked like last Thursday:

1. :00 – This is a keep read but Flores hands off anyway, so the end gets an easy tackle, though the center is also losing so it wouldnt have mattered if the end had stayed outside, and the LT is late to the backer (he lets Flores go since he can see the back has the ball) so it wouldn’t have mattered if Flores kept.
2. :06 – I shouted at my screen when I saw this play live since none of these are the correct blocking assignments except the TE, and he loses immediately. The LT is supposed to climb to the safety, the LG and C have the frontside tackle and backer, the RG and RT have the backside tackle and backer, the end is eliminated by the read, and the DBs get pulled off by the receivers. This RT block is pointless since the end would eat the QB alive, the RG has lost his mind letting the backer through, and the entire frontside is just tripping into each other.
3. :14 – Come on guys this is basic zone blocking … the RT and TE both miss the frontside OLB, while the RG and LT trot around the formation to somehow meet at the middle hitting the same ILB.
4. :20 – This was a weird coincidence because the commentator during the play was saying Flores needs to keep the ball to keep the defense honest, a valid general point, but on this specific read the defense is clearly showing give and Flores correctly hands it off. The run goes four yards backwards because it’s a catastrophic failure of zone blocking with no one but the LG achieving leverage on undersized defenders.

Here are a few examples of successful runs from last week, plus a couple of typical runs from Howland and Fields from last year:

1. :00 – Here the defense plays patiently and spills the run outside, which Hicks is pretty eager to do. The DB responsible for setting the edge steps inside too much and he has to reverse and chase outside so Hicks makes the sideline, but Abshire misses his block on the corner so this is contained to the five yards the refs give him.
2. :09 – This is supposed to be a B-gap run but … what B-gap? The RT is immediately outleveraged and the RG chases and falls over. Cody and I talked about this play on the podcast, we both think Hicks would have tried to get to the sideline but Vailahi showed some patience and timing to get through the wreckage then put his shoulder into the LB’s kisser to salvage a six-yard gain.
3. :16 – Here’s Howland getting the handoff last year (from a direct snap to Gordon, in an interesting formation). The LG is stuck on the line and not getting up to the backer to execute this play, but I like Howland’s pathing and the smooth change of direction in the backfield, then the hard hit with balance to go through the tackle and keep going for a solid six yards.
4. :23 – And here’s Fields on a cleanly blocked run last year, this time the the LG gets off his chip and up to the backer so Fields is able to get through, though note that since the safety triggered faster than the Z-receiver could block him Fields immediately goes down on the DB’s contact.

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Defense

Other than in 2021 when they finished with a top-ten defense in most advanced metrics, Oklahoma State hasn’t really been a defense-led team under coach Gundy but it has been at least respectable, most years coming in a little above or below average for the FBS. Last year was a real falloff, collapsing to 107^th in F+ advanced statistics, and I couldn’t find any statistical area from charting or unit on film that stood out as performing above a general background of ineptitude.

With that as context, there were a couple of interesting throughlines to the podcast: which defensive units have been totally taken over by transfers as might have been expected vs which units are largely playing their returners and may be a surprise, as well as the hire of DC Grantham who has a long NFL and Power conference history as a coordinator in something of a similar boom-or-bust pattern in relation to his talent:

Grantham is using a relatively similar 3-down defensive structure as Oklahoma State has employed for the last several years, with a weakside OLB always on the field and switching from a nickel against 11-personnel to a 3-4 with a strongside OLB against 12-pers. However, there were several occasions during last Thursday’s game where UT-Martin went heavy but Grantham didn’t sub the nickel out because the game situation — long yardage, two-minute drill at the end of the 1^st half, a long drive at the end of the 3^rd quarter when the offense had really fallen behind — seemed to indicate it was a feint and a pass was coming, so we discussed on the podcast how Grantham’s substitution rules aren’t robotic for easy manipulation (although he’s not psychic either, the Skyhawks ran against those lighter configurations from heavy personnel about half the time and often picked up good yardage). Also very interesting were Grantham’s 3^rd down simulated pressures, pulling the tackles for more ends and OLBs and then bailing a few into coverage while inserting off-ball backers or defensive backs to create confusion on the o-line, a different variation each time and which almost always blew up the play.

UT-Martin had nothing going for them in the passing game on Thursday, to the extent that for several positions I think it’s still to be determined if they’ve really improved compared to last year or if they just thoroughly overmatched last week’s opponent in overlapping ways between the pass rush and athleticism difference for the coverage.

The defensive line had a mix of returners and transfers at the interior spots but all returners at end last week. Starting at nose was #96 NT De. Thomas from Vanderbilt, and behind him was #71 NT Kelley who was in last year’s rotation as well. At the 2i/3-tech spot they started #99 DT Oates who I was watching play all of last year for Oklahoma State, who rotated with #17 DT Havili Kaufusi, a backup I’ve been charting for half a decade at UCLA.

The primary end for most downs was #95 DE Ja. Johnson, who was very productive coming off the edge and I thought looked pretty good last year with great length for the position. Behind Johnson was another returner who was part of the rotation last year, #87 DE Brown, though unfortunately he’s never been nearly as productive and Cody told me that the injury he took late in the game last week is going to keep him out for a while. They have a couple options to replace Brown: the 12-pers specialist #88 DE Dean who’s very long and even heavier than Johnson but hasn’t played off the edge since the strongside backer does that in the 3-4, #94 DE Nnodim, a redshirt freshman returner I saw on a few snaps in the two-minute drill as part of the lighter configuration, or two guys who didn’t play last week Juco #44 DE R. Bradley or true sophomore from UTEP #33 DE Duhon (Cody was very high on Duhon because he earned freshman honors for racking up a lot of stats, I’d written him off as a short high-motor guy who wouldn’t translate to this level, I suppose we’ll find out).

The OLBs are completely new, no returners at all (which is appropriate, last year had really only one redshirt senior who wasn’t very effective after Collin Oliver got hurt early on, though fortunately Oliver was still drafted in the 5^th by the Packers). The weakside backer who I saw on every down was #0 OLB Charles, a pretty impressive athlete with an NFL pedigree and an interesting backstory for how he wound up as a Division-II transfer that Cody related on the podcast. He’s listed at 280 lbs but moves like he’s 40 lbs lighter, and I don’t think they have anybody who could play weakside as effectively because of that unique combination of size and speed.

On the strongside, the starter was #4 OLB Gregory from South Carolina, then behind him was #40 OLB T. McCoy from Colorado. Situationally, the strong/weak distinction would disappear and they’d go to a 2-4-5 or a specialty package with no tackles at all so we’d see Charles and Gregory on the field during long yardage or hurry-up situations, not just against 12-pers. That’s also when we’d see a longer and leaner guy come in as a pass rush specialist, #16 OLB C. Bradley, who dropped down from Tennessee as a bluechip to a Juco last year (Cody said it was because he couldn’t put on weight).

The edge rushers Johnson, Charles, and Gregory stood out the most on last week’s tape as having talent that would translate beyond dominating an FCS opponent, in my opinion. Gregory had a peculiar story this week come out about larceny charges but Cody told me he’s already done his discipline for it and will play on Saturday.

The secondary was difficult to evaluate. The pass rush meant there wasn’t a whole lot to defend in the first place, and I didn’t think UT-Martin didn’t have any standouts at wide receiver to threaten even FBS replacement value coverage. Furthermore there were quite a few surprises in the personnel usage as every starter was a returner from a backfield that didn’t exactly cover itself in glory last year, and they’d taken quite a few transfers in the offseason plus had some seemingly more talented guys coming up in the pipeline.

The one secondary player I’m not skeptical of is the nickel, #23 DB Harris. He graded out fine last year but Cody and I agreed that he really stepped up last week in anticipation and understanding, and the variety of things he’s required to do that he nailed without any rotation gave me a lot of confidence in his high marks.

The corners are up in the air for me. I saw both of them last year, #3 CB C. Smith and #10 CB K. Smith (no relation to each other, but the former is the older brother of a safety starter), and while I hardly thought they were solely responsible for the defense’s issues they certainly gave up their share of big plays. When the Pokes brought in the very talented high 4-star #1 CB JK Johnson from LSU and Ohio State before that, and the very experienced #2 CB Davies who started at UCLA after signing with Oregon and graded out better in 2024 on my tally sheet for the Bruins than any of the Pokes’ corners did, I figured those two were shoo-ins for starters and Cody said he did too, but Davies didn’t play at all and Johnson only saw a couple snaps as a backup.

Safety was flat-out baffling. This was far and away the biggest liability on last year’s team, responsible for the Pokes constantly giving up explosive plays and allowing efficiency gains to get out of hand. It was clear in 2024 that the backups #18 DB Kabongo, #14 DB Cleveland, and even #7 DB Epps (though he was at backup nickel, Cody told me he was in line for deep safety) were far more talented than the guys that they started, #11 DB D. Smith and #8 DB Robertson, plus they brought in two experienced bluechips, #15 DB Boykins from North Carolina and #32 DB McDaniel from Charlotte after originally starting at Florida.

Cody repeatedly defended Robertson in particular as a heartwarming story of a walk-on who earned a scholarship playing his way from the scout team up to a starting role and a responsible guy who might have gotten his spot after some discplinary issues in the unit to perhaps send a message in the first week, so there’s a possibility that one of the five other guys has always been the plan to take his job. But just as it was last year — and Cody agreed — it was plainly obvious watching tape that the starting safeties have a hard athletic ceiling that even their FCS opponent was able to exploit.

Kabongo made an appearance as a backup last week but none of the rest did, though he took an injury during the game. Cody said he’ll be fine, however, and should be good to play on Saturday and would be the primary guy in line to take over for Robertson. I agree with that assessment, assuming it really is the case Kabongo just needs an extra roll of tape – he’s the only guy who hasn’t gotten passed over by multiple staffs.

Here’s a representative sample of successfully defended passing plays from last week, as well as a look at Epps from last year:

1. :00 – Here they’re in the standard down 3-3-5 but since it’s a long yardage 2^nd down they’ve swapped out the lighter Gregory for Charles at OLB. Both he and Johnson off the other edge bully the tackles and flush the QB. With seven in coverage as they’re reliably getting pressure rushing four, the QB can’t find anybody open.
2. :09 – Now it’s 3^rd down and time for a sim. Gregory and the specialist Bradley are the OLBs, Charles is also in with his fist down moonlighting as a lineman, a starting ILB is crowding the center of the line, the other ILB off-ball is another 3^rd down specialist, and Johnson is the only true lineman in, making this technically a 1-6-5 with no tackles. Bradley, Charles, and Johnson rush, while the ILBs back out to handle the crosser that the nickel Harris has left off to insert. The LG panics and doesn’t get to Harris, the QB has no outlet because of the layered coverage, and when he dumps off to the back Gregory is there. Very well designed sim.
3. :27 – This is the standard configuration against 11-pers and what I saw on most reps – no separation for any of the receivers, and both Charles and Johnson winning off the edge while the tackles ate up double teams. The QB tries to force a comeback route and the CB nearly comes away with a pick.
4. :47 – Last year’s game against Arkansas, Epps in at nickel over the slot. This is either disguised zone or split-field, I’m not sure, either way it’s a nice job of Epps to keep his head and allow the slot to be picked up by the deep safety in structure (… whichever structure) and trigger hard on the back who’d otherwise have a lot of running room to the sideline as the corner was backing out. Great burst and a correctly calculated angle.

Here’s a couple of unsuccessfully defended passing plays from last week, and some selected plays from last year’s secondary:

1. :00 – Here’s a regular old nickel blitz, Harris is giving it away a bit by staring and acting antsy though Robertson stacked over him would have done that anyway. The QB correctly fills the void popping it over Harris and Gregory’s heads to the reverse-slicing H-back. He’s the green-dot boundary ILB’s responsibility the instant he changes direction but that ILB (more on him below) has his eyes locked on the mesh and is late to figure out the play.
2. :16 – This is a sim that backfires. The specialist ILB Oliphant hustles from the boundary over to the fieldside trips but then uselessly double covers the TE … he would have been better off dropping back and playing the 15-yard over that the safety Smith can’t handle trailing. Meanwhile Gregory has the passing lane but is in triple tension, he has to watch the back and the QB scramble so he can’t get in position to break up the throw over him. If the offense ran this same pattern and the Pokes deployed their standard zone defense they would have squashed it.
3. :33 – BYU could have thrown the TD on the post because the receiver had beaten Robertson so badly to the inside, but then reverses and sends Robertson flying into the shadow zone. The corner Smith gets blocked and knows what’s going to happen from 10 yards out.
4. :49 – The corner K. Smith was stickier in coverage than C. Smith last year, but the price he paid was that a lot of attempts at physical play against Big-XII receivers on the outside just got him knocked around and left behind.

Rush defense was more of a mixed bag last week. They didn’t allow any explosives, as expected given the opponent, and they performed very well on 1^st downs. But they didn’t stop a single short-yardage run, and I think they outsmarted themselves a few times defending long-yardage rushing.

The surprising thing was the inside linebacker play. Cody and I both had figured this offseason the starters would be transfers since they’d taken four of them as they more or less had to — everyone who got meaningful reps last year graduated, transferred out, or went to the NFL as Nick Martin did — leaving them with just a backup they were developing last year #25 ILB Esonwune and a lean specialist for 3^rd down packages #26 ILB Oliphant.

But the whole order of those transfers seems upside down at this point. The one with the most Power conference experience is #24 ILB Da. Thomas from Louisville, but Cody said he’s coming along the slowest and least likely to see the field. On the other end of the spectrum, the Div-II transfer #6 ILB Rawls started on Thursday, never came off the field, and graded out as the most assignment-sound of anybody other than Harris. Cody told me they were very excited to get #30 ILB White from Ole Miss and he figured to be a starter, but fell behind and he’s now a backup and I didn’t see him play on Thursday. The green dot starter was a former 2-star who was very productive at Akron last year, #5 ILB McCoy … and he was the biggest surprise of the game for me, because his grades were the lowest on my tally sheet of anyone on the defense other than Robertson. Given the nature of a 3-down defense funneling everything to the ILBs, far and away the biggest single cause of a successful play for the Skyhawks offense was McCoy being out of position or missing a tackle.

Here’s a representative sample of successfully defended designed runs last week:

1. :00 – Here’s the 3-4 vs 12-pers, note how Dean has replaced Johnson at strongside end. The initial formation is trips to the boundary but the Pokes pretty consistently stayed balance on defense, leaving them well situated to handle the fly sweep from zone. This is a pretty well done set of combos with the price of leaving Charles unblocked, the offense’s bet is the back can just outrace him through the hole. Nope.
2. :06 – Well done by Harris, the man assignments get handed off through the DBs as the motion man goes under the formation and he takes over the edge, then doesn’t get stuck in the traffic and makes a nice tackle on the back.
3. :14 – Good job by Thomas to shed his block and help with the tackle, this is a pretty straightforward run and the LBs swarm to it.
4. :21 – Here the rotational guys are in, no real problems. Havili Kaufusi has the gap plugged, Brown rocks the RT and gets after the back, and the strongside OLB McCoy gets inside the TE to prevent a cut.

And unsuccessfully defended runs:

1. :00 – It’s 3^rd & 6 and Grantham has the defense in the very light 1-6-5 with no DT again. They’re overleveraged for medium yardage and UT-Martin makes a margin call, running the QB up the middle. Charles almost saves it by beating the RT but the QB wriggles free, McCoy dodges himself out of the play and is cleared by the RG, and the QB runs over Robertson.
2. :07 – This is probably a strategic choice, 2^nd & half a yard is probably going to result in a conversion at some point so playing the pass is overall optimal which is what the defense is doing, a light box and cover-2. But it’s not a choice for Kelley and Havili Kaufusi to get moved aside so easily, Rawls to be stuck on his block, or Robertson to take a bad angle so that they give up eight yards instead of two.
3. :14 – The Skyhawks went on two long drives in the 3^rd quarter that were each extended for essentially one main reason: the defensive line kept guessing the run and slanting off the snap, then completely running themselves out of the play. The worst culprit, though hardly the only one, was Oates, here he’s joined by Thomas doing the same thing, with McCoy failing to flow to the play at all, and Robertson breaking down very poorly going into his tackle and whiffing.
4. :21 – This was the main differentiator on run blocking between the strongside backers, Gregory would keep contain while T. McCoy kept getting trapped. By the time he spins out it’s too late, the sweep man has turned the corner and is up to the second level where the back has prevented B. McCoy from getting a clean tackle.