With Dexter Lawrence now a member of the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants stunningly owning two picks in the top 10 of the 2026 NFL Draft, it’s time for a pre-draft ‘Things I Think’.
Even after putting together the Lawrence trade post, running a late-night post-Lawrence era 7-round Giants mock draft , then sleeping on it, my head is admittedly still spinning a bit.
Dex is now an ex
I am going to bullet points some of my thoughts on this trade.
- The Giants had set their asking price for Lawrence as a first-round pick, and other assets. NOBODY thought they could get a top 10 pick in this draft for a soon-to-be 29-year-old nose tackle coming off a season that wasn’t up to his standards. Some people I talked weren’t even sure the Giants could get a first-round pick. Getting No. 10 is a huge win for the Giants. It speaks to Cincinnati’s desperation to add an impact defensive player and try to capitalize on quarterback Joe Burrow’s Super Bowl window.
- Speaking of Super Bowls, I know there are Giants fans out there thinking about the Super Bowl titles won by ex-Giants Saquon Barkley, Leonard Williams, and Julian Love. If Lawrence joins that list, good for the Bengals. And for him. It shouldn’t matter. Lawrence had reportedly made it clear he did not want to be a Giant any longer, The Giants did the best thing they could for themselves, and made the right move.
- This is a win for John Harbaugh. A potentially massive distraction from his first offseason/training camp is removed, a message is sent to the locker room that if you aren’t fully committed to his program Harbaugh won’t be afraid to show you the door, and he gets a second top-10 draft pick to continue re-shaping the roster into what he wants it to look like.
- Don’t underestimate the salary cap impact. The deal removes Lawrence’s $18.5 million in base salary from the Giants’ books. The 10th overall pick will be a $5.7 million cap hit. So, the Giants gain nearly $13 million in cap space in the trade. As of Sunday, Over The Cap shows the Giants with $18.437 million in cap space. They should now be able to entice free agent defensive tackle D.J. Reader with a nice offer. Maybe Shelby Harris, too. Or, even Calais Campbell.
- Speaking of Reader, BBV’s Chris Pflum jumped into my ‘Slack’ Sunday morning to say he expected Reader to be a Giant before the draft begins. I am not s0 sure about that. I think a Reader signing is highly likely, especially with some financial wiggle room. I wonder, though, if the Giants hold off on that until after the draft. Signing Reader before the draft might cost New York the fourth-round compensatory pick it is expected to get in 2027 for losing Wan’Dale Robinson. Maybe a handshake deal now that gets announced post-draft when free agent signings no longer count against the compensatory formula. That might depend on how competitive Reader’s market it.
- In my post-Lawrence trade mock draft, I moved down from No. 10 to No. 25 and selected Ohio State defensive tackle Kayden McDonald. Thanks to research by David Syvertsen of Ourlads we know that the Baltimore Ravens NEVER selected a defensive tackle in Round 1 during Harbaugh’s 18 seasons as head coach. Syvertsen’s breakdown:
First rounder: Never Second rounder: Two times Third rounder: Four
times Fourth rounder: Two times Fifth rounder: Two times Sixth rounder: One time Seventh rounder: Never
I am stunned by that considering how much Harbaugh preaches the importance of the offensive and defensive lines.
Could McDonald end up being the first in a move such as the one I proposed? Jordan Ranaan of ESPN noted that “Multiple sources told me earlier this week that DT Kayden McDonald is perfect for the Baltimore-style defense that the Giants will run.”
I think I sure would love to end up looking smart on this one.
- I am surprised by the contract extension Lawrence signed with the famously-stingy Bengals. After all the talk about him drawing a “line in the sand” about what he would accept I figured it would be more than a one-year extension that would pay him $28 million in 2028. I expected some type of adjustment or bump in his contract for 2026 and 2027.
- The Bengals’ perspective on the Lawrence trade, expressed by SB Nation’s Cincy Jungle, is interesting. It is also more or less what I expected — trying to show Burrow that they are doing everything they can to field a winning team.
John Harbaugh and Joe Schoen
There is a lot of chatter around the idea that the Giants might fire Schoen after the draft, bringing in a GM of Harbaugh’s choosing and kicking off a restructuring of the front office.
Well, hold the phone on that idea for a minute. Or, a few minutes. Or, however long it takes you to go read the fantastic piece Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated did after an exclusive sit down with both men in East Rutherford.
Oh, You’re back. Good. Breer’s piece certainly does not leave the impression that Harbaugh is in a hurry to have Schoen’s key card to 1925 Giants Drive revoked.
By the way, I LOVE this quote from Harbaugh. I might frame it and put it on my wall:
“Life is best understood looking back. So you look back—this is what it was—and I don’t really have any big regrets. But it’s best lived going forward.”
Now, some further thoughts on Schoen:
- The general manager did not “chase off” Lawrence. Schoen gave Lawrence a generous four-year, $90 million contract in 2024 that made Lawrence the league’s third-highest paid defensive tackle. It’s not Schoen’s fault that Lawrence was overweight last season and did not play to his usual standards. If he had done so, and not reportedly expressed the desire that he would rather be elsewhere, perhaps the Giants would have torn up his contract and given him a new one.
- This will be the third time in five drafts that Schoen has had multiple first-round picks, the second time he has had two in the top 10. I can’t find a time in the modern era when a GM has had two top-10 picks twice. Schoen got Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal with picks 5 and 7 in 2022, and Abdul Carter and Jaxson Dart with picks 3 and 25 last year. The Neal miss still haunts the Giants. Let’s hope they don’t suffer a similar fate this time around.
