It’s been a long week in Cowboys Nation, and we’re not even a month into the season. The road loss to the previously-winless Bears is going to sting for a while, especially if the Cowboys fall to Micah Parsons and the Packers on Sunday night in prime time. Yet Jerry Jones insists this team is still a playoff team.
Is he right? The odds surely don’t look good, but let’s take a look at what the hard data says. We’re still waiting on strength of schedule adjustments for all DVOA-related grades, but three
weeks is a decent enough sample size to start drawing a few conclusions, so let’s dive in.
That bad, huh? The Cowboys dropped six spots in total team DVOA rankings this week. Sitting at 23rd in total team DVOA, they’re also 13th in the NFC, which hardly bodes well for their playoff chances. The good news? The offense is still pretty efficient, even after losing CeeDee Lamb early against Chicago.
The defense, though… we’ll get into more specifics on that later on, but this is a very bad defense. They’re the worst in the NFL, according to DVOA, and it’s hard to argue otherwise.
Pivoting to our EPA-based team tiers, the diagnosis is very similar. The defense is not quite as bad as the Dolphins here, but pretty darn close. Of note: out of the six teams at the bottom of the league in EPA/play allowed, only the Cowboys have won a game. The lone win came, of course, against the Giants.
Offense
All things considered, this is a good sign for the offense. They didn’t take a huge step back this week despite throwing three picks and fumbling on the opening drive. That essentially means the offense was moving the ball really well in between those highly inefficient turnover plays.
The run game, in particular, continues to excel. Javonte Williams is eighth in the NFL in rush yards over expected (RYOE) per carry, just narrowly behind Derrick Henry, and ranks third in yards after contact per carry. He also leads the league in rush success rate. The Cowboys had to go away from him last week due to being down several scores, but Williams seems like the key to keeping the offense going in Lamb’s absence.
One reason for the muted decline in efficiency this week is that Dak Prescott did fairly well against the Bears defense, even after losing Lamb. Yes, he threw two interceptions, but one of those was deflected off the hands of George Pickens; to prove that point, Prescott had just one turnover-worthy play all game.
Where Prescott really excelled was completing high-leverage throws. He posted a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of +10.9 against Chicago, the fourth-highest of any quarterback this past week. Again, that’s with two interceptions and Lamb not registering a single catch. If there’s anything to suggest hope in this passing attack without Lamb, it’s right there.
If there’s anything to disintegrate hope in the passing attack, though, it’s this offensive line. For the third time in as many games, at least four starters on the offensive line gave up multiple pressures. I discussed last week how Prescott was bailing them out, leading to a very low sack rate despite a fairly high pressure rate, but those chickens came home to roost in Chicago.
The tackles have been bad: both Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele are in the top 10 nationally in pressures given up. Even more concerning is that the Cowboys will now be without two starting interior linemen, Cooper Beebe and Tyler Booker, for several weeks. Instability in the middle will surely only exacerbate the shoddy pass protection of the outside tackles.
But, hey, the run blocking is pretty good!
Defense
Where to start? Everything about this defense is bad right now, but perhaps the biggest surprise is that their run defense is actually the best part. They’re actually only giving up 3.7 yards per carry, good for seventh-best in the league, but they alternate between great and terrible: Dallas ranks 12th in 10+ yard rushes given up and also ninth in run stuff rate. The run defense is very feast or famine.
Dallas will take that compared to their pass rush, which is all famine. Their strong performance in the season opener has quickly proved to be fool’s gold, as the Cowboys are hardly generating any pressure over these last two weeks. Jadeveon Clowney should help, but it’s doubtful that he’ll be enough of a value-add to really make a dent, especially early on.
While it’s absolutely true that the Cowboys’ miserable pass rush is making things harder on the secondary, this bunch is doing a perfectly fine job of making things harder on themselves already. Blown coverage assignments have become commonplace this year, evidenced by the Bears averaging 5.2 yards of separation at the catch this week. That was the best in the league in Week 3 by a sizable margin.
Everyone has been guilty of poor play, but there are four main culprits. Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam are both in the top 10 of qualifying cornerbacks in terms of highest passer rating allowed; Malik Hooker is giving up the highest passer rating of any safety; and Kenneth Murray is giving up the fifth-most yards after catch at his position group while being one of the most targeted linebackers on a per-play basis.
Reddy Steward has also been unreliable in the slot, though not for a lack of effort on his part. He’s in the top 10 of slot corners in worst snaps per target and snaps per reception; in other words, when Steward is in the slot, quarterbacks are throwing his way and winning. Of note: Jourdan Lewis has the ninth-best snaps per reception figure among slot corners.
