I don’t think anyone can dispute that the Astros played absolutely putrid baseball in Detroit. And against Baltimore at home, the series before. Brandon Young, no offense to the Lumberton native, almost threw a perfect game on a lineup that isn’t exactly a shell of itself at the moment, at least on paper, like it was a month earlier. They also can’t win hardly any starts from Hunter Brown or Framber Valdez lately, which is a recipe for disaster. Jesús Sánchez can’t buy a hit. Cam Smith probably needs
a reset in Triple-A. Josh Hader is essentially lost for the rest of the regular season. I mean, I am all about numbers, and we’ll get more into that shortly, but the vibes around this time are also at a season low. But, hey, at least Yordan Alvarez is finally getting close to a return, roughly three-and-a-half months after we last saw him.
Frankly, the Astros have played noticeably subpar baseball since that sweep of the Dodgers in early July. Since then, though, Houston is 14-23 with a -60 run differential. They are incredibly fortunate that the Mariners have also had a losing streak to maintain a 1.5 game lead in the AL West inexplicably. Whether they’ll continue to hold it is another question entirely, as Seattle likely has a more complete roster at this point and certainly better health on their side.
In other words, negativity abounds around the recent results. Only the Pirates (83) and Rays (79) have a lower wRC+ than the Astros (84) since July 7. For actual runs scored, only the Rays (132) and Giants (130) have scored fewer than Houston (136). Slugging, down. Home runs, down. They walk too little, strike out a bit too much. It took Mauricio Dubón’s two-run home run on Wednesday to break a 31-inning scoreless streak.
For the pitching staff, it doesn’t get much better. The rotation is middling, with a 4.22 ERA in its last 193 2/3 innings. Of any Houston starter with at least 25 innings pitched since July 7, Jason Alexander has the lowest ERA (2.83) to give you a glimpse of how things are unfolding. The bullpen, once a strength from Opening Day through that Dodgers series, was starting to flounder before Hader’s shoulder strain and continues so following his absence (4.97 ERA, -0.7 fWAR). For a club that balked at the asking prices for available pitchers, the decision not to acquire at least some insurance could prove detrimental. It already has to a certain degree.
As constructed, the Astros have a flawed roster, with some issues inherent from the start of the season, while the unexpected magnitude of injuries has only added to their troubles. But this club remains in first place in the AL West, and perhaps this is rock bottom. Even the presence of Alvarez, if health isn’t in question, bolsters the lineup. Jake Meyers should return one of these days, too. At the same time, it isn’t like Dana Brown and Joe Espada have a lot of depth to work with on the margins. Things could unravel further. But, for now, let’s see what happens when Alvarez returns, and hopefully they hang on for a bit longer.
