As we do every week in this space, we take a look at the Packers passing game from the previous game. I like to start these off by looking at Jordan Love’s passing chart from NFL Next Gen, but this week we get Malik Willis’ passing chart, because that’s what they had.
That is what I expect from a Malik Willis passing chart. Willis was in the game for 46 snaps, tallying 11 passing attempts and 10 rushing attempts. When he was throwing, it was quick game or calculated pushes of the ball downfield. There
were certainly things that were left on the field – the downside of needing to go to a backup – but he ran the offense well. He hit a couple nice throws (we’ll get to one of those shortly), and, if things looked questionable, he didn’t put the ball in harm’s way: he simply tucked and ran.
This is usually the part where I dig into numbers, but, with the weirdness of Willis stepping in after Love took the crown of a helmet directly to the front of his facemask, digging into the stats of a split QB performance just feels a bit off (Love had 14 dropbacks while Willis had 17). Willis’ total EPA (+10.4) was higher than Caleb Williams (+8.0) if you feel like using that around the water cooler. You know how people love to talk about EPA around the water cooler.
Instead of doing a dive into the numbers, we’ll just take a look at a couple plays. Matt LaFleur did a really nice job gathering information and setting up some big payoff plays in the 2nd half. One of the issues is that there was a QB change between some of the set-up and the payoff plays, and the backup QB either didn’t see things the same way or didn’t feel comfortable taking a chance with the throw. But they did have one payoff that worked well, so that’s what we’re looking at.
The original concept is Stick. It’s a quick-game staple across the league and in this Packers offense. There are a handful of ways you can dress it up and run it, but you’ll see a basic version on the left side of this diagram:
They ran some version of Stick 7 times this week, far-and-away their most-used concept. They ran it 3 times with Jordan Love (4.7 YPA, 66.7% Success Rate) and 4 times with Malik Willis (11.3 YPA, 75.0% Success Rate).
This initial clip is the first time they ran Stick with Willis. It was on 2nd & 6 with 3:07 remaining in the 2nd quarter. The Packers are in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), starting in a 3×1 look with Romeo Doubs [87] as the iso receiver on the right. Dontayvion Wicks [13] motions under the line before the snap, slowing down as the under man in a stack with Doubs on the right. The Bears had initially been aligned in a two-high look, but the motion of Wicks sees them rotating a man down and puts them in a single-high look. As we see post-snap, the Bears are in man coverage. The man rolling down signals a check that he’ll take the inside man.
At the snap, Wicks breaks out while Doubs pushes vertically and breaks out. With the boundary defender in off-coverage, Willis throws to Wicks, who gets upfield for the 1st down.
We’re a little further along in the game now. It’s 3rd & 2 with 39 seconds left in the 3rd quarter. The Packers are on the 33 yard line, clinging to a 6-3 lead.
Once again, the Packers dial up something that looks a lot like Stick (in truth, it’s closer to Omaha, but it’s still a quick-game staple revolving around two quick, out-breaking routes on the same side).
There’s no motion but the personnel grouping is the same (11) and they’re in the same 2-man stack look. Wicks is the under receiver and Doubs is at the point. The Bears are in a single-high look with man coverage.
At the snap, Wicks pushes vertically for a few steps before breaking out, while Doubs briefly angles in to ride in Wicks’ jetstream. Given the Packers approach with Willis in the game, the Bears are clearly looking for quick-game here. Instead, with the boundary defender sticking with Wicks, Doubs releases vertically up the field, easily gaining a step or two on the defender.
Willis checks the safety then throws over the top to Doubs.
It’s a great playcall by LaFleur to play off of what the defense is looking for in that moment, and it’s a great throw by Willis. Perfect placement on this to Doubs, who is able to haul it in and pick up a TD.
We’ll likely dig into a couple of those payoff plays that didn’t end up hitting later this week, but, before we do that, I just wanted to spent a little time with this beauty.
Albums listened to: The Appleseed Cast – The Fleeting Light of Impermanence; Julien Baker & Torres – Send a Prayer My Way
