As summer slowly begins to slip away with hints of hockey’s return on the horizon, the one part of the offseason which feels incomplete is the highly anticipated Cale Makar contract extension hasn’t been announced by the Colorado Avalanche yet. With exactly one month until the team is collectively back on the ice again, the clock is beginning to tick louder. Hopefully, it’s still all a just matter of procedure but there’s more anxiety in the air than there was a month ago.
It’s often brought up that
the Cale Makar contract watch is beginning to seem like the beginning of the Mikko Rantanen saga. That, too, felt like an important piece of business concerning a core player which would get done eventually but it turned into a shocking trade born out of frustration. But there are several important facts to keep in mind before comparing the two Stanley Cup champions when it comes to financial matters. What should be the actual contract comparison is how fellow superstar Nathan MacKinnon’s eight-year extension signed in 2022 is more closely aligned with Makar’s situation. There’s several facts that were forgotten since that deal came to fruition just four years ago.
At the time he signed that mega-deal in 2022 worth just over $100 million, MacKinnon was the NHL’s highest paid player, there was no hometown discount. His $12.6 million Annual Average Value edged Edmonton’s Connor McDavid’s previous high mark by $100K. Toronto’s Auston Matthews did eventually surpass MacKinnon with an extension paying him at a $13.25 million AAV but it was signed nearly a full year later in 2023 and kicked in the season after that. This means that for the entire 2023-24 season MacKinnon was the league’s highest paid player in an era when the salary cap was still rising by only one million dollars per year. In the 2025-26 season the superstar Avalanche center was still the league’s third highest paid player and currently sits at seventh highest heading into the upcoming season.
The other significant detail of MacKinnon’s contract, which will apply to the Makar negotiations, is that he signed for 15.09% of the $83.5 million salary cap. If we extrapolate that to the projected $113.5 million salary cap for the 2027-28 season when Makar’s next contract will begin, that’s a base of $17.13 million per year if both parties want to match that. San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini is a budding star forward and just signed for the highest cap hit in the NHL at $18.8 million AAV which also begins in the 2027-28 season. Does Makar have an incentive to beat this figure or is he only content to set salaries for defensemen? Minnesota’s Quinn Hughes is keeping a close eye on negotiations but he’s likely waiting for Makar to name his price first than the other way around. If Hughes does sign first, though, and sets the bar for yearly salary it could have any impact on where Makar’s ask goes especially if the figure surpasses Celebrini’s.
One reason for optimism is that MacKinnon put pen to paper, literally, on September 20th, 2022 at the annual Avalanche charity golf tournament one day before training camp began. There was no early deal signed that summer either in a shorter offseason but parading the Stanley Cup around the world was a nice distraction. The fact is there’s still another month left for Colorado and Makar to negotiate before real urgency hits. This year training camp will kick off on September 16th, which is yet another reason why September 15th is truly the deadline for Makar to sign his contract extension.
The 15th is also the last day Makar can sign an extension with his current club for eight-years and also take advantage of favorable (to him) salary and bonus structure because the new league year and Collective Bargaining Agreement begins on September 16th. MacKinnon received $49 million of his $100 million contract in the first three years of his eight-year deal and 95% of it was in up-front signing bonuses. The new CBA limits signing bonus payouts to just 60% of the contract value and has steeper rules to restrict front loading. There is a large financial incentive for Makar to sign by that date and get paid in the same manner MacKinnon did.
One other enormous reason why the Makar contract watch isn’t comparable to the Rantanen situation is because there is no internal cap on Makar’s contract. The Nathan MacKinnon AAV of $12.6M is not a barrier for him like it was for Rantanen. This made negotiations difficult and a conflict with no possible resolution but to go the trade route because there was no bridging the financial gap over a line in the sand. The Avalanche are well-aware and prepared to make Makar the organization’s highest paid player at least until MacKinnon’s current contract ends in 2031.
Joe Sakic managed the message earlier this summer stating Cale Makar is going to “finish his career here” because he also made the same remark about MacKinnon when he signed his extension in 2022:
“He’s an Avalanche,” Joe Sakic said. “He’s going to remain an Avalanche throughout his career. That’s important. It shows a lot of loyalty. He’s a franchise player and we’re really excited that he’ll remain in Colorado.”
There’s been some concerns lately over the contract term which the superstar defenseman will eventually sign for. Unless the ultra-short (like say a three-year agreement) begins to sound like a real option then to go the maximum eight years should still hold a lot of appeal to Makar. The fact has been lost that he will turn 29 years of age right after the 2027-28 season begins in which a possible maximum term extension kicks in, at eight years would lock him up with the Avalanche through his age-36 season. Now firmly in his prime years, the age to which he’s paid to and length of financial security begins to matter much more. Any agreement in the medium-term rangeon a contract brings Makar to that awkward mid-30s period where even with significant salary cap increases it’s tough to forecast value even with a player as decorated as he is. The financial security of a long-term contract in the neighborhood of $150 million guaranteed is tough to turn down, too.
Now, of course none of these factors adds up to any promise or guarantee. With the salary cap increase exploding contracts this summer, the new financial landscape is much harder to define and predict future contracts. But analyzing the facts and known information it seems a safe assumption that a contract will materialize before the season begins which would keep Makar in Colorado for a long time. There are a lot of different ways to structure an extension that benefits both parties and takes a long time to work through. Even if some perceptions are incorrect there should be a lot of common ground to find to get a deal done from two motivated parties. The true watch is that September 15th deadline, though, and going past that date means all bets are off.
