Two years ago when I sat in Detroit to watch two basketball games, one against Gonzaga and one against Tennessee, I had little doubt that Purdue was going to head to the Final Four. Purdue had the best player in the country in Zach Edey and a supporting cast that made him better in every respect. It was an incredible team and it was unfortunate that they ran into a buzzsaw of a UConn team in the National Championship game. Purdue fans will always remember that team though for breaking through to the Final Four after
a drought dating back to 1980. This year, Purdue was the preseason number 1 team, expectations were high, but they failed to meet their first goal of winning the Big Ten championship. The bottom fell out of fan expectations with a 6-7 slide to end the regular season. A lot of fans were simply ready for the season to end and were preparing themselves for heartbreak. Then, Chicago happened and everything reset. Now, Purdue sits just two games away from a return to the Final Four just two seasons after their breakthrough. Those expectations that fell through the floor? They’ve been built right back up to where they were with Purdue fans flocking to San Jose, California to watch the Boilermakers take on Texas, and hopefully, a second game against either Arizona or Arkansas. So here is why, and why not, Purdue will be heading back to Indianapolis after this weekend.
Why Purdue Will Not Make the Final Four
I’m an optimist, but I’m also able to look at things objectively. There’s always the chance that Purdue falls back into old habits and allows Texas, or whoever they face in a hypothetical Elite Eight matchup, to get hot from three while not communicating with one another, failing to attack their closeouts, and allow open look after open look to their opponent. I can’t tell you how many times we saw this this season from the Boilermakers. Maybe it’s true what they say about this team and that they just did not care as much about the regular season since they knew they would be remembered solely based on what happened in March. I believe that theory which I first saw espoused by Jalen Rose of all people. This Purdue team needs the stakes, it needs the pressure, it needs that fear that this could be the end of everything for them. Playing in March is playing on a knife’s edge and it’s exhilarating and thrilling and makes you feel alive, but at the same time one false move can lead to disaster. If the opposing team’s three point shots start to fall will Purdue be able to get off the mat, take the punch, and right the ship? We saw them do it against Michigan and Miami but in March it takes just one bad moment for everything to spiral.
As good as the offense is, and trust me and the numbers it’s good, they have had a tendency to hit a drought. Whether it be two minutes or three minutes or sometimes even six minutes it is devastating in March. Unlike in years past Purdue can’t rely on an automatic bucket machine in Zach Edey, but guys like Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff have played some great basketball of late. However, if Purdue runs into a prolonged period of scorelessness it could spell doom for their hopes of playing in Indianapolis.
Why Purdue Will Make the Final Four
Two seasons ago Purdue had the indisputable best player in college basketball and everything felt inevitable. Right now? I can’t say that’s the case, there’s no Zach Edey on this team. But, is the team better overall? I think it’s possible. Hear me out. The Purdue offense, according to KenPom, is battling it out with Illinois to be the most efficient offense in the country this season and the most efficient offense in the history of KenPom’s rankings. When it comes to March it’s so often true that the offense is what wins championships. Most talking heads will tell you that guard play is what will win you games in March and Purdue’s guards have been playing at a high level since they went to Chicago. That includes Braden Smith, who now has the NCAA record for most career assists and dropped 26 points on 10-15 shooting including 4-6 from three. That includes Fletcher Loyer who just dropped 24 points on 6-7 shooting including 4-4 from three against a very long and athletic Miami team in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. That includes CJ Cox who, despite leaving the second half early, had a flurry of threes in the final minute and a half of the game against Miami going 3-3 from deep to tie the game for the Boilermakers. If guard play can win championships the Purdue guards are certainly playing their best ball of the season at the right time.
Then there’s the increased defense intensity. Over this six game winning streak, Purdue has taken down Northwester, Nebraska, UCLA, Michigan, Queens, and Miami. The vast majority of those teams are very talented offensively. During that timeframe Purdue allowed no more than 72 points to any one opponent. Those 72 points came from Michigan, a team many people believe to be the best team in the country. There’s no mistaking the fact that the Purdue defense fell off, especially from three, during their cold streak this season. However, over the last six games the Purdue opponents are shooting a combined 42/133 which is good for just 31.5%. It’s a far cry from when nearly every Purdue opponent seemed to be shooting 50% or more from three. Those number include Northwestern shooting 6/14 from three. If you take that game out you wind up with 36/119 and the percentage falls to just 30%. What I’m trying to point out to you is that yes, the Purdue defense had problems throughout the year, but when it has come down to it, when it’s been win or go home time, the Purdue defense has done what they needed to do to advance to the next game and they’ve won six in a row. The Purdue defense has been the whipping boy of this team but they’ve stepped up at the right time. With just two more games to go the defense needs to continue to play how they have over these last six games and Purdue should be driving down to Indianapolis for another Final Four.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that Purdue’s bigs have also stepped up over these last six games. Oscar Cluff is playing the best basketball of his Purdue career on both ends of the floor. He’s suddenly become a defensive stopper with multiple blocks and amazingly steals as well. His intensity and bully like behavior has really brought Purdue up a level. Then, there’s the play of Trey Kaufman-Renn who is beat up and abused down low each and every night who fails to get the calls but who perseveres through it. His floater/push shot has been unstoppable these past six games and his shoulder has held up to an increased workload. The bigs are playing their best in the biggest games of the year.
So, bottom line, do I think Purdue can find their way to Indianapolis to a second Final Four in three seasons? I absolutely do. The team is playing at a very high level right now on both ends of the court. Purdue will face #11 seed Texas, a surprise entrant in the Sweet 16, on Thursday to start the final steps on their journey to Indianapolis, their journey to redemption, and their journey home.
