What a weird season this has been for the Pittsburgh Penguins. It began with low expectations. Then they went 8-2-2 through their first 12 games. That was followed by a stretch where they won just one out of six games that made it seem like the hot start had come to a close. Then they put together a 5-2-1 run that helped them regain some momentum and start climbing the standings again. Then they went and lost eight games in a row, including some unbelievable blown leads, that appeared to send their season in the expected
direction. That has now been followed by a five-game winning streak that continued on Sunday with a thrilling come-from-behind 5-4 overtime win against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
That win completed a perfect week that saw the Penguins go 4-0-0 against a really tough schedule.
Their win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday night was workman like and well-deserved.
Their home-and-home two-game sweep of the Detroit Red Wings was impressive, including Saturday’s game that might have been their best, most solid all-around performance of the season. That is especially true defensively as they limited the Red Wings to just 12 shots on goal for the entire game, and no shots on goal over the final 10 minutes of regulation while mostly protecting a one-goal lead. It was all clinical. It was all masterful. It was all exciting.
Then they won the second half of a road back-to-back on Sunday against the Blue Jackets by showing some serious grit and resiliency to erase a three-goal deficit, including being down by two goals to open the third period.
That was when captain Sidney Crosby took things over, did his thing, and kept the Penguins in the win column.
The Penguins now enter this week with a 20-12-9 record and a .598 points percentage that is ninth-best in the NHL, sixth-best in the Eastern Conference and has them back on a 98-point pace for the season. In most seasons a 95-point mark is usually a secure playoff spot. This season, as of Monday, the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference is on a 94-point pace.
They are back in it. They are very much back in it. At the halfway point of the season that may not be a fluke, especially with the way they are starting to play overall.
For the season the Penguins’ 5-on-5 expected goal share is up to 51.2 percent. That is 10th best in the NHL. Their expected goals against per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play are down to 2.68 per 60 minutes. That is 18th in the NHL. While that is not great, it is a significant improvement from where they were earlier in the season when they were closer to the bottom of the league.
Over the past 10 games, that expected goal share is up to 54.8 percent. That is the fifth-best in the NHL over that stretch. Their defensive numbers in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play are down to 2.42, which is sixth-best in the NHL over that stretch.
They are winning games. They are playing better. They are playing legitimately good hockey. They are very much in the playoff race again.
There are still some concerns. Jack St. Ivany seems to be a liability every time he is on the ice. Kris Letang seems to be aging in dog years at times. Arturs Silovs is really up and down in goal, sometimes even within the same game. He has not had a single game save percentage over .900 since Nov. 14. That is a long time.
The positives, however, are outweighing the negatives and the concerns. Crosby is rolling. The second line with Anthony Mantha, Tommy Novak and Justin Brazeau is still showing some offense even without Evgeni Malkin on it. The Kid Line, no matter which trio of kids seems to be on it, is still pushing play and now starting to produce goals. The fourth line has a totally different look and vibe with Blake Lizotte back on it.
Now they have a good chance to keep stacking some wins and points this week with their three games.
In the week ahead the play the New Jersey Devils, Calgary Flames and Boston Bruins.
All three teams are below the Penguins in the standings. All three are 19th or lower in the NHL in points percentage. The Devils and Bruins are 25th or lower in expected goal share.
The week begins on Thursday with the Devils after a few days off. New Jersey has been one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season, and is entering the week having lost 12 of its past 18 games. The Devils do not really do anything exceptionally well, and their 5-on-5 offense (averaging less than two goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play) is among the worst in the NHL. Not having Jack Hughes for an extended period of time hurt that, but even with his return things have not been great.
On Saturday the Flames visit Pittsburgh, and of the three teams on the Penguins schedule this week they have some of the best underlying and possession numbers. They are, however, seriously lacking in high-end finishers and do not have a particularly good offense. These two games are going to be potentially strong opportunities for the Penguins to continue building on their improving defensive metrics.
Then the week concludes on Sunday with another weekend back-to-back with a trip to Boston. Both teams will be on the second-half of a weekend back-to-back, so there is not much of a scheduling advantage for anybody there. It is another team that does not have a great offense, but David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie are a strong duo at the top of their lineup that the Penguins will have to contend with. If they can limit those two, there is not much else here that is a major concern. The Bruins have also been really streaky this season in terms of their results, alternating extending winning streaks and losing streaks.
Expecting the Penguins to win all three games would be expecting a lot, and it would extend the winning streak to eight games if they could. That is also expecting a lot. A more realistic expectation would be winning at least two of these games and coming out of the week with four points. Do that and it is a successful week and keeps them right where they need to be to continue a playoff push.
[Data In This Post Via NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick]
