We strive to provide a balanced mix of optimism, pessimism, and pure analysis covering the Phoenix Suns.
Bright Side’s Kevin just poured in some optimism, providing 3 reasons to be optimistic that the Suns
will make the playoffs. Now, it’s my job to be the Debbie Downer and play devil’s advocate. I know, I know. There’s already plenty of “negative” coverage surrounding the Suns.
I try to view this from the lens of skepticism and pessimism, with the hope of being completely wrong. These are the flaws that many outsiders and skeptics see.
I’m in the camp that we need to be proven wrong and have the right to be cautious with any sort of optimism after how the past several seasons have gone. They owe it to us to prove us wrong.
Here are three reasons the Suns will miss the playoffs this season.
#1) Devin Booker and Jalen Green simply do not work together
This is a possibility you must brace yourselves for. There is no telling how this duo works together until we see it. It could be a home run, and they pleasantly surprise us with their ability to play off of one another. Or, it could be a disaster with too much overlap.
This is the most important piece to this Suns puzzle this season. If they exceed expectations, it starts with these two guys. If it falls apart, it’s likely because this duo didn’t click. Sure, “the others” matter — but this is the needle mover.
My main concerns are about the playmaking (or lack thereof), the defensive issues, and the overlap in their games. I’m not saying Jalen Green is Bradley Beal 2.0, but there are a lot of similarities in their games strictly from a “role” perspective. How will this pairing be any different? That’s a question Jordan Ott will have to address early on to make it work.
For Jalen Green, it’s been 3 years of shaky decision-making, streaky scoring, and subpar defense. If he doesn’t make “the leap” (and many guards never do), Phoenix could find itself relying on an inefficient volume scorer who doesn’t elevate teammates. If he plateaus, the Suns just traded for a name rather than a difference-maker, and their ceiling drops hard. We are hoping that is not the case.
Booker needs to show improvement from long range. He’s coming off a season where he shot 33.2% from deep on career-high volume. Nearly half the year, he was a non-factor from long range. 37 games under 30% from three, 25 games with one or fewer makes. That’s not a small-sample slump. That’s inconsistency. If he hovers closer to last year’s number than his MVP-candidate 2021–22 splits, Phoenix’s offense simply doesn’t have the firepower to hang with playoff teams.
That is an area we need to see improvement in next season with an increased workload. The playmaking and playing off-ball will also be huge next to Green.
For this duo to mesh, Green’s playmaking and efficiency must improve, and Booker has to help stretch the floor and play on and off-ball efficiently.
#2) The West is too good
Simply put, the lack of talent compared to their peers could doom them. The West is loaded with not only elite teams, but there’s a large chunk of talented teams, and even some of the lower-end teams will be sneaky good and competitive. In other words, there will be very few “easy wins” for anyone.
If Phoenix were in the East, this would be an entirely different discussion. But… they are not. ESPN (somewhat) recently released its forecast for the season, picking the Suns to finish 13th overall with 30 wins.
The Thunder, Rockets, Nuggets, Wolves, and Clippers look like the top dogs, with talented teams like the Lakers, Warriors, Mavs, Spurs, and Grizzlies lurking. That’s already 10 teams there alone, and then you factor in the sneaky talented Blazers and Kings, and you realize how deep the West is.
No easy nights. The Suns will be tested on a nightly basis. Phoenix needs to avoid letting it spiral or snowball during those tough stretches.
#3) Dillon Brooks Is Not a Cure-All for the Defense
I still have some concerns over this defense as a whole. Dillon Brooks brings attitude, hustle, and an edge. Nobody’s disputing that.
He’s not the kind of defensive anchor who single-handedly drags a unit from bottom-10 to playoff caliber. He shouldn’t be responsible for that type of overahul. In Houston, the Rockets improved defensively, but that was also tied to Alperen Şengün’s growth and a coach (Ime Udoka) who demanded buy-in across the roster on a far younger and more athletic team. Phoenix doesn’t have that infrastructure yet… though they are trying to build toward that.
If Brooks is forced to cover for lapses everywhere else, his impact shrinks. And offensively, he can still be a black hole who hijacks possessions. Phoenix has a good start in building this identity with Ryan Dunn and Dillon Brooks, but the real question comes down to who else guards on the perimeter and who takes over as the defensive anchor?
Mark Williams has the chops, but hasn’t put it all together yet. We all know about the health issues, too. If he stays on the court, he has to be that guy for the Suns to make a defensive leap.
Phoenix is banking on a lot of “ifs”.
They need Booker and Green to blossom together. Brooks needs to get some serious help to elevate the defense. They have to take care of business in the tough Western Conference. But if even one of those bets fails, the Suns are staring at another sub-500 season and watching the Play-In from home.
