Since their miraculous 2016 run, which (with one sole exception) was the only time a non-American Conference program represented the Group of Five/Group of Six/Tier 2 program/‘whatever we’re calling it now’ at a New Year’s Six bowl in the four-team playoff era, Western Michigan has been doomed to being in the dreaded C-tier of MAC programs: never bad, but never that good, either. Excepting 2020, they’ve never done worse than 5-7 or better than 7-5. In 2024, they continued that trend, finishing 6-6.
They went 5-3 in conference, the first time they’ve done that since 2019, and Pythagoras expectation gave them 4.65 wins, so they pretty much met what was expected of them. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Pythagoras gave Northern Illinois, who went 4-4 in league play, 4.79 wins; still within expectations, but more than Western Michigan. What gives? When you look at the two numbers that determine a team’s Pythagorean expectation, points scored and allowed, the story of Western Michigan’s season begins to unfold a little more clearly. (Wondering what in God’s name Pythagorean expectation is? I have an explainer at the end of this article!)
But I don’t want to give away all the good stuff in the lede paragraphs. Let’s look deeper.
Who’s New?
Western keeps Lance Taylor, which is no real surprise, and Walt Bell will keep his job for his second year with the program, for reasons we will soon see. But there are plenty of fresh faces in Kalamazoo this year. Joe Pawlak joins the staff as offensive line coach from Montana, where the Grizzlies had one of the FCS’s best units. MAC football fans will remember Pawlak as a former starting offensive lineman for the NIU Huskies (2009-11). Kyle Perkins from Elon was hired on as receivers coach.
Most new hires on the defensive side of the ball, though. Chris O’Leary, the former safeties coach for the Los Angeles Chargers, joins as Western’s new defensive coordinator. Greer Martini joins up as linebackers coach; his last stop was Charlotte. Nick Coleman of LSU was hired as cornerbacks coach. Lastly, Seth Payne joins the Broncos from Vanderbilt, and he’ll be pulling duties on both sides of the ball as defensive line coach and running game coordinator on the offense.
Offense
| Stat | Total | MAC Rank (of 13) | National Rank (of 134) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yards Avg. | 187 | 8 | 109 |
| Passing TDs | 18 | 6 | 81 |
| Completion % | 65.6 | 2 | 21 |
| Rush Yards Avg. | 183 | 3 | 37 |
| Rushing TDs | 28 | 2 | t-29 |
| Total Offense Avg. | 370 | 5 | 85 |
| Points Per Game | 28.9 | 2 | t-55 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 3 | t-25 |
| Sacks Allowed Avg. | 1.85 | 5 | t-61 |
| Tackles-for-loss Allowed Avg. | 4.62 | 1 | t-33 |
| Third-down % | 35.2 | t-9 | t-112 |
| Fourth-down % | 61.3 | 2 | 34 |
- Departing: QB Hayden Wolff (graduation), HB Jaden Nixon (UCF), HB Zahir Abdus-Salaam (graduation), WR Kenny Womack (graduation), WR Anthony Sambucci (graduation), OL Jacob Gideon (graduation), OG Jack Sherwin (graduation), OG Addison West (graduation), OG Tedi Kush (graduation)
- Arriving: QB Brady Jones (Riverside [JUCO]), RB Cole Cabana (Michigan), WR Tailique Williams (Georgia State), WR Christian Leary (Georgia Tech), TE Michael Breschea (QB at FCS Colgate in ’24), OC Raheem Anderson (Michigan), OL Zach Vaughan (Wake Forest)
- Staying: QBs Broc Lowry, RB Jalen Buckley, WR Malique Dieudonne, TE Blake Bosma, TE Mareyohn Hrabowski (QB in ’24), OG Chad Schuster, OG John Hofer
Western Michigan’s offense in 2024 was, in a word, ludicrous. Bringing up my comparison with Northern Illinois earlier, the Broncos scored 11.25 more points per game than the Huskies. In fact, only Buffalo and MAC champion Ohio scored more points per game than Western, even beating out conference runners-up Miami by a whole 2 more points a game. However, replicating that kind of production in 2025 got a whole lot harder this offseason. Not only did Western lose Hayden Wolff and his gaudy 67 percent completion rate for 2,410 yards, but also their first and third leading rushers, top two receivers, and a good chunk of their all-MAC caliber offensive line. However, the Broncos will be supplementing those losses with quite a few transfers from the top conferences, as well as who might have well been the Dan Marino of southern California junior college football.
Filling Wolff’s shoes will be a tall order for Broc Lowry, who only threw eight total passes in 2024; however, the bulk of his production was in the running game. As competition, Western snagged one of the fastest arms in the junior college ranks. Brady Jones’s stats seem unreal; we’re talking numbers belonging on Mike Leach’s Air Raid teams. In 12 games for the Riverside City College Tigers last year, he threw for 4,456 yards, 44 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, with a completion percentage of 64 percent. That is roughly 371 yards and 3-4 touchdowns per game. We’ll have to see if that kind of firepower translates seamlessly to the NCAA, but it wouldn’t be too far-fetched to say that this is one of the more statistically eye-popping acquisitions a MAC program has managed to grab this cycle.
Lowry has experience with the offense in his advantage for the position battle, but Jones’ sheer potential talent will make it a heavyweight fight in camp.
Losing halfback Jaden Nixon to UCF is going to hurt. Nixon’s 919-yard, 12-touchdown campaign in 2024 was a major contributor to Western’s offensive arsenal. Zahir Abdus-Salaam graduating hurts as well, and his 600 yards and 3 touchdowns will be missed. However, that is HB1 and HB3. HB2 is staying in Kalamazoo, and the Broncos probably couldn’t be happier that he is. Jalen Buckley, the former MAC Freshman of the Year, finished right between Nixon and Abdus-Salaam at 683 yards, but much closer to Nixon in touchdowns, with nine. He clearly has the ability to ascend to the heights that the program will probably ask of him in 2025.
Joining him in the backfield is Cole Cabana (no, not Colt Cabana, wrestling fans). Rated by ESPN and 247Sports as the #2 player in Michigan and #5 running back in the country by Rivals out of high school, he saw very little action during the Wolverines’ 2023 national title campaign and no action last year. He initially announced he was transferring to Minnesota, but switched his allegiance to Western Michigan, choosing to stay close to home. A highly-ranked local running back who was also selected twice as an all-American sprinter in high school, Cabana will be an extremely welcome addition to the Broncos’ offense.
If you were a wide receiver at Western in 2024, there is an extremely slim chance you’re still at Western; the Broncos lost seven pass-catchers to the portal this offseason. Both Kenneth Womack and Anthony Sambucci graduated, taking with them nearly 1,000 yards in receiving production. However, Western’s receiving TDs leader is staying. Tight end Blake Bosma catalogued six touchdowns, the most of any receiver, and 403 yards. Joining Bosma from the portal is Tailique Williams from Georgia State (16 catches for 165 yards in 4 games) and Christian Leary from Georgia Tech (3 receptions for 27 yards). Michael Brescia has joined the Broncos at TE as well, converting from QB at Colgate. Brescia accumulated 1,727 yards and 32 TDs on the ground over 33 games in the Patriot League and stands at six-foot-two, 242 lbs., making him an intriguing target.
The offensive line is going to be a bit of a work-in-progress, with four of last year’s starters— including both all-MAC selections in Addison West and Jacob Gideon— departing the program during the offseason. John Hofer returns to the left guard spot, but it will otherwise be nametag season for the first few weeks.
The other guard position will see Chad Schuster (13 appearances in ‘24) and Illinois transfer Hunter Whitenack (four games in ‘24, three starts in 13 games in ‘23) duke it out. Offensive center Raheem Anderson, the former Michigan Wolverine, is another offseason addition to the OL after 24 game appearances over three seasons in Ann Arbor.
At the tackles, Adam Vandvest (six starts in ’22), Coner Kenzinger and Jacob Krause (both redshirt freshmen) will likely fight for one spot, while Gavin Dabo (three appearances as a true freshman) and Wake Forest transfer Zach Vaughan (16 games in four seasons) could also project into the rotation.
A drop-off in performance is likely for the OL as they try to gain chemistry together; it’ll be hard to maintain the momentum of last season’s stellar cast right out of the gate.
Defense
| Stat | Total | MAC Rank (of 13) | National Rank (of 134) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yards Allowed Avg. | 222.6 | 9 | 72 |
| Passing TDs Allowed | 20 | 8 | 65 |
| Completion % | 61.3 | 9 | 79 |
| Rush Yards Allowed Avg. | 192.5 | 11 | 112 |
| Rushing TDs | 28 | 11 | 116 |
| Total Defense Avg. | 415.1 | 11 | 110 |
| Points Per Game Allowed | 31.3 | 9 | 107 |
| Turnovers | 21 | 3 | t-36 |
| Sacks | 19 | 11 | t-119 |
| Tackles-for-loss | 53 | 12 | t-122 |
| Third-down % | 42.7 | 9 | 95 |
| Fourth-down % | 81.2 | 13 | 133 |
- Departing: LB Donald Willis (graduation), DL Anterio Thompson (graduation), DE Corey Walker (Wisconsin), DB Damari Roberson (graduation), LB Jacob Wahlberg (graduation), LB Boone Bonnema (graduation), SAF Bilhal Kone (NFL Draft), CB Nyquann Washington (graduation), SAF Armani-Eli Adams (graduation)
- Arriving: NT Race Stewart (Indiana), DE Kershawn Fisher (FCS Nicholls State), LB James Camden (Murray State), LB Sefa Saipala (D-II Ferris State), CB Javarius Sims (UConn; played for CMU in ’22-23), SAF Jaden Lyles (Austin Peay), SAF Micah Davis (Michigan)
- Staying: DEs Tyson Lee and Popeye Williams, CB Aaron Woolford, SAF Tate Hallock
And now we come to the unit that caused the most issues for Western in 2024.
Remember how I said that the Broncos scored 11.25 points per game more than Northern Illinois, their next door neighbor, earlier? Well, the Western Michigan defense also gave up nearly 11 points per game more than the Huskies. There was a pretty definitive gulf in the MAC last year between five programs that gave up less than 22.5 points a game, and six who gave up more than 29 per game (with Akron situated awkwardly in the middle.)
Western fell into the latter camp, and it was pretty much what held the Broncos back from greater heights. (If you’re wondering how a team with Western Michigan’s offense and Northern Illinois’s defense would’ve done, the answer is third place, right between Miami and Bowling Green at about a 7-1 conference record).
Consequently, if you were on the Broncos defense in 2024, there is an extremely strong chance you’re somewhere else right now. The Broncos lost eight defensive backs, four linebackers, and six defensive linemen to the portal. That is… pretty much an entire defense.
Trying to fill in at least some of the gaps on the defensive line are Race Stewart from Indiana, who didn’t play last year, and Kershawn Fisher from Nicholls State, who logged four solo tackles (three assists), a tackle-for-loss, a sack, and two quarterback hits in three games for the Colonels. Fisher does have starting experience, with 10 starts in ‘23 for Nicholls.
Popeye Williams (19 tackles, sack in six starts in ‘24) and Tyson Lee (26 tackles, sack in nine starts in ‘24) will also return to help man the defensive end spot, while defensive tackle looks to be a battle, with Marcel Tyler (six tackles in 13 games in ‘24), August Johanningsmeier (six tackles in 11 games in ‘24) and Ball State transfer Dakari Frazier (six tackles, TFl in three starts in ‘24.)
In the midfield, the Broncos grabbed James Camden from Murray State and Sefa Saipala from GLIAC power Ferris State. In seven games for the Racers in 2024, Camden had 51 total tackles, 1.5 TFLs, a half-sack, and five quarterback hits. Saipala was impressive still, with 93 total tackles, 8 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, a forced fumble, 3 fumble recoveries for 56 yards, and an interception.
Aaron Woolford returns to help anchor the secondary at corner after a campaign which saw him finish with 64 tackles, four PBUs and an interception. Former Central Michigan defensive back Javarius Sims rejoins the MAC after a small sojourn to UConn— though he’ll be in the Broncos’ backfield this time instead of Central’s. Sims amassed 51 tackles, including 36 solo stops, with four pass breakups and a TFL in his true freshman and sophomore campaigns in Mt. Pleasant from 2022-23, with seven starts in 24 games. Other corners include EKU transfer Jordan Thomas (45 tackles, 14 PBUs in ‘24) and Rutgers transfer Fitzroy Ledgister.
Safety had a decent chunk taken out of it, but the team’s best defensive player does return in second-team all-MAC defensive back Tate Hallock. Hallock finished the 2024 campaign as the team’s second-leading tackler with 84 total stops, while also registering five TFLs, five pass break-ups and four interceptions. He’ll have the eyes of NFL scouts this season after stacking two impressive seasons back-to-back. Joining Hallock at safety is Jaden Lyles, who ventures north from Austin Peay, and Micah Davis. Lyles, a Hendersonville, Tennessee native registered 96 total tackles, an interception, a quarterback hit, and a fumble recovery in 2024, earning first-team all-UAC honors. Davis joins WMU after a redshirt season at Michigan.
Special Teams
| Stat | Total | MAC Rank (of 13) | National Rank (of 134) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Field Goal % | 81.3 | 5 | 40 |
| Extra Point % | 100 | t-1 | t-1 |
| Punts Per Game | 4 | 11 | t-67 |
| Yards Per Punt | 40.1 | 12 | 119 |
| Kickoff Return Avg. | 21 | 6 | t-49 |
| Punt Return Avg. | 4 | 9 | 123 |
- Departing: PK Luka Zurak (graduation), RET Jaden Nixon (UCF), RET Jordin Parker (graduation)
- Arriving: PK Hunter Smith (Florida)
- Staying: P Ryan Millmore, PK Palmer Domschke
Western lost one of the most reliable kickers around the MAC this offseason. Luka Zurak, who graduated, went 13-of-15 on field goals last year and a perfect 45-for-45 on extra points, bringing to a close a marvelous college career that saw him only miss nine field goal attempts and one extra point in his four years of play between FCS Butler and Western.
Jaden Nixon, covered above in the offense section, was also a major player on special teams, racking up 479 yards on kickoff returns in 2024. Western is also losing their #1 punt returner Jordin Parker, who also graduated this year.
Thankfully, Western is keeping their punter. Ryan Millmore had a great 2024, with almost half his punts going inside the 20 and going 50+ yards seven times. Kicker Palmer Domschke is staying around, too. He was injured early in 2024, only kicking two extra points (which he made) and one field goal (which he missed) before being declared out for the season, but he does have starting experience dating back to 2022. (You may remember the time he kicked a game-winning field goal in a blizzard against Central Michigan on the road.)
As insurance, the Broncos are bringing in Hunter Smith from Florida, who didn’t play last year.
Outlook
Western is desperate to break the 5-7 win deadlock they’ve been in for almost a decade now. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be terribly likely, unless the transfers they brought in ball out in a big way.
Their non-conference schedule could be a lot worse; Western draws Michigan State, North Texas, Illinois, and Rhode Island this year in the early slate. If everything goes right? They could beat North Texas and Rhode Island and maybe one of the Big Ten schools, but that’s a tall order in a year where they’ve lost so much.
Where the Broncos get particularly unlucky is the conference draw. They play only two teams in the bottom of the table (UMass and Ball State), and play all three of the programs at the top of it (Toledo, Ohio, Miami). They have their rivalry games with the other two Michigan schools and always-mysterious Northern Illinois to round out their conference slate.
- Non-conference floor and ceiling: 1-3 / 3-1
- Conference floor and ceiling: 3-5 / 6-2
- Overall floor and ceiling: 4-8 / 9-3
- Predicted record: 7-5 overall / 5-3 in conference
Schedule
All dates, times and channels are accurate as of publication.
| Week | Opponent | Date | Time (All ET) | TV/Streaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Michigan State | Fri. Aug. 29 | 7:00 p.m. | FS1 |
| 2 | North Texas | Sat. Sept. 6 | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+ |
| 3 | @ Illinois | Sat. Sept. 13 | 7:00 p.m. | FS1 |
| 4 | Toledo | Sat. Sept. 20 | TBA | TBA |
| 5 | Rhode Island | Sat. Sept. 27 | 6:30 p.m. | ESPN+ |
| 6 | @ UMass | Sat. Oct. 4 | TBA | TBA |
| 7 | Ball State | Sat. Oct. 11 | 3:30 p.m. | TBA |
| 8 | BYE | |||
| 9 | @ Miami [OH] | Sat. Oct. 25 | TBA | TBA |
| 10 | Central Michigan | Sat. Nov. 1 | TBA | TBA |
| 11 | BYE | |||
| 12 | Ohio | Tues. Nov. 11 | 7:30 p.m. | Choice (ESPN Networks) |
| 13 | @ Northern Illinois | Tues. Nov. 18 | 7:00 p.m. | Choice (ESPN Networks/CBSSN) |
| 14 | @ Eastern Michigan | Tues. Nov. 25 | TBA | Choice (ESPN Networks) |
| 15 | MAC Championship | Sat. Dec. 6 | Noon | ESPN |
A Primer on Pythagorean Expectations
Pythagorean expectation, also called Pythagorean wins, is a formula originally developed for baseball, but has been adapted for pretty much all the other major sports.
Without actually putting a math formula in a Western Michigan preview article (although I will put them at the end for the curious), Pythagorean expectation takes a team’s points scored and allowed, the number of games played, and an exponent and spits out a number that represents the number of games that the team should’ve theoretically won based on that. Performing within your Pythagorean expectation usually means performing within a value of 1 of what Pythagoras says, so -0.99 to +0.99 of the exact number produced by the formula. Pythagoras said that Western Michigan should’ve won 4.65 conference games; they won 5, so they performed within their expectation.
What you don’t want is to overperform your expectation. This means that you won games you ‘shouldn’t’ have; read: got lucky, won a lot of close games, things of that sort. If you underperform your expectation, that typically means the opposite: you had terrible luck, lost a lot of close games. This is generally better, since it means that you’re actually better than your record indicates. (For what it’s worth, every MAC team performed within their expectations in 2024.) Pythagorean expectation can be useful in analyzing a team because it can reveal strengths or deficiencies that stat sheets might hide, like a terrible defense that got bailed out by a stellar offense (such like Western in 2024).
With football, there’s a couple of notes needed. You can use a default, store-brand exponent, nothing wrong with that, but it will flatten the numbers a bit and might give you a bit of an inaccurate picture. With football, this has been generally agreed to be an exponent of 3. I use a home-cooked exponent using a method also originally developed for baseball but adapted for football called Pythagenpat. It gives me a more precise exponent, and therefore a more precise result.
For the statheads in the audience, if you want to use Pythagorean expectations in your own football-related nerdery, here’s the formulas I use:
Pythagenpat = ((points scored+points allowed)/number of games)^0.287
Pythagorean expectation = (points scored^pythagenpat)/(points scored^pythagenpat + points allowed^pythagenpat)
