A year ago, the Twins were major sellers at the trade deadline, sending 11 players away in trades including Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louis Varland. But they kept most of their core young players, and a year later the organizations is hovering near .500, just a few games out of first. However they may decide to be aggressive sellers again, with pitcher Joe Ryan and catcher Ryan Jeffers drawing major trade interest. Whether Minnesota buys or sells this week could depend in part
on how it performs against the Royals, making this series important for both clubs as the trade deadline looms.
Kansas City Royals (45-62) vs. Minnesota Twins (53-54) at Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Royals: 4.21 runs scored/game (23rd in MLB), 5.10 runs allowed/game (27th)
Twins: 4.78 runs scored/game (7th), 5.03 runs allowed/game (26th)
Byron Buxton is ninth among all hitters with 25 home runs, but is just 4-for-23 in his six games since coming off the Injured List from a hip injury. Trevor Larnach is hitting .342/.400/.562 with three home runs in his last 21 games. Ryan Jeffers is hitting .300/.379/.500 at home this year. Austin Martin has a .412 on base percentage against lefties. Josh Bell is hitting .327/.378/.598 with runners in scoring position.
Brooks Lee is hitting just .207/.276/.310 against lefties. Ryan Kreidler is hitting just .169/.197/.271 in 19 games in the month of July. The Twins are fourth-worst in Outs Above Average at -21 with Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall each performing poorly in the infield.
The Royals haven’t yet announced starters for Wednesday or Thursday. Randy Dobnak seems like a good bet to face his former team, and the Royals could go with an opener again on Thursday ahead of Noah Cameron.
Taj Bradley is 4-1 over his last seven starts with a 2.93 ERA. He has the tenth-highest walk rate among qualified starters. He has a 3.14 ERA at home compared to 4.14 on the road.
Joe Ryan was scratched from his last start over the weekend with arm fatigue, after giving up eight runs in his last outing. He has dominated the Royals over his career, going 8-2 with a 2.49 ERA in 13 starts. Vinnie Pasquantino is 6-for-22 (.273) against him with a home run and two doubles.
Bailey Ober lasted just four innings, allowing four runs and had his fastball clocked in the high 80s in his last start. He has a 4.74 ERA in 14 career starts against the Royals. Ober throws his change up 35 percent of the time, with a 23 percent whiff rate, while opponents are hitting .298 against his four-seamer.
The Twins traded away much of their bullpen a year ago, but have assembled a collection of no-namers to post the tenth-best bullpen ERA this year at 3.32. They have just 12 blown saves – only four teams have fewer. Yoendrys Gómez has a 1.78 ERA in 30.1 innings since the Twins purchased him from the Rays in May. Kody Funderburk has a 59.5 percent groundball rate. Right-handed hitters are batting .314/.380/.529 against Taylor Rogers.
This could be a big week for the Twins as they assess their chances of competing in a weak division. They have dropped five of seven to the last place Royals this year, so they can hardly afford another disappointing series.
