Xavier v. Georgetown: Preview, matchups, keys to the game

And so it has come to this. Xavier has already lost more games this season than they ever have in Big East conference play ever. Xavier has actually already lost more conference games than they ever have. Never have the Musketeers lost more than 11 before. This season they stand at 12. The 1981-82 remains the worst Xavier has ever done in conference play as they went 1-11 in the old Midwestern City Conference. This season has already eclipsed that one in losses. The goal now is to make sure things

don’t get worse.

You may be tempted to stand, slightly aghast, and conjure up your best Chevy Chase “How could things get any worse?!? Look around you Ellen, we’re on the threshold of Hell!” Well, here’s how things could get worse: you could lose to Georgetown.

This season has not been good for Xavier, but at least there is a plan in place, a leader who seems committed, and a team that fights. Georgetown has none of those things. The Hoyas have lost five straight and stand at 5-12. They meekly accepted a 16 point beatdown from Marquette in their last game. The game before that they scored 47 points while at least not outwardly tanking. Ed Cooley threw a water bottle at a child, has said his pitiful team is “blessed,” and is basically looting the corpse of Georgetown basketball at this point. Whatever deal with the devil he made to be mediocre for a long time at Providence has long since expired.

Team Fingerprint

All of that is a little harsh on the Georgetown players, who I am quite certain are trying their level best to win. Offensively they are pretty middle of the road in most things, caring for the ball well, rebounding it a bit, and getting to the line successfully. In fact, they are only in the red on their KenPom page on three things on the offensive side. Unfortunately for them, those three things are two point shooting, three point shooting, and effective field goal percentage. These guys just cannot shoot.

Defensively they actually defend shooters better than they do much else, but that’s not really saying a lot. Their two and three point shooting defenses are both between 110th and 120th which is just sort of ok. They’re poor on the defensive glass, they don’t force turnovers, and they send opponents to the line too often.

In the first matchup Georgetown was a horrid 25-43 from the line and just sputtered to a halt late as Xavier did just enough to win. Malik Mack had one in the air to tie, but it caught only iron before Ed Cooley found all baby with a water bottle and X escaped 80-77.

Players

	Starting matchups
Malik Mack	Point Guard	All Wright
Junior	Class	Sophomore
6’2″, 175	Measurements	6’3″, 190
13.7/2.8/4.2	Game line	7.6/1.6/2
37.3/30.2/83.7	Shooting line	47.2/42.9/81.6
	Mack gets his points by sheer volume, trailing only KJ Lewis on shots percentage on the team. It’s anyone’s guess why the two rotation players with the worst EFG% on the team are taking the bull of the shots, but that’s Ed Cooley’s question to answer. Mack is cash from the line, distributes well, and never turns the ball over. He just shoots way too much.
KJ Lewis	Shooting Guard	Malik Messina-Moore
Junior	Class	Senior
6’4″, 210	Measurements	6’5″, 200
14.9/5.1/2.5	Game line	10.9/2.9/3.9
40.8/30.5/75.2	Shooting line	37.5/32.8/79.3
	Lewis is a slightly better shooter than Mack, but not by much, and he takes even more shots. He is elite in getting to the line but only adequate once he’s there. He is a good rebounder and an often destructive defender, ranking in the top 30 in the nation in steal rate. He’s a bit foul prone, but that’s the cost of doing business.
Kayvaun Mulready	Small Forward	Tre Carroll
Sophomore	Class	Senior
6’4″, 219	Measurements	6’8″, 235
3.9/2.2/0.7	Game line	18.5/5.9/2.8
36.8/28.4/65	Shooting line	51.1/35/67.7
	Mulready is a sophomore, so it’s possible his brain hasn’t developed enough yet to tell him to stop launching threes. He’s actually a reasonably good finisher from inside and gets on the defensive glass well, but he undoes a lot of that by shooting far more from outside than he should.
Caleb Williams	Power Forward	Filip Borovicanin
Sophomore	Class	Senior
6’7″, 227	Measurements	6’9″, 227
9.3/5.4/1.6	Game line	10/7.9/4.2
45.3/39.1/79.2	Shooting line	41.6/30.8/88.1
	Williams, on the other hand, is an excellent shooter from pretty much anywhere. He’s a real threat to go off and pile up points, but the Hoyas don’t see fit to get him the ball much. He’s reasonably effective on the glass, but he’s undersized for a post.
Vince Iwuchukwu	Center	Jovan Milicevic
Senior	Class	Sophomore
7’1″, 257	Measurements	6’10”, 241
11.6/6/0.5	Game line	12.1/4.1/1.4
54.4/27.3/76	Shooting line	45.3/43.8/70.5
	The Hoyas best rebounder is also their leader in blocks and a competent interior scorer. He’s just rock steady, having scored in double figures in all but five of his games this season.

Julius Halaifonua will be off the bench early and often for the Hoyas. He has started 22 games this year and it wouldn’t be shocking if he started this one. He averages 9.3/4.6/1.2 and is very efficient scoring the ball. Oh, he’s also seven feet tall. Isaiah Abraham is a swing forward who does most of his damage from the outside. He’s a competent three point shooter but struggles off the drive. He’s 70th in the nation in turnover rate.

Jeremiah Williams gets 18 minutes a game, but not because of his shooting. He’s quite bad at that. His assist rate and his defensive numbers are both good, including an impressive 2.5% block rate as a guard. Big man Jayden Fort comes in and blocks shots. He’s a decent inside scorer but is dreadful from the line. His offensive rebounding prowess comes into play only if he can keep himself on the court.

Three Questions

– Seriously, where are the backup bigs? If this is a bit it has long since stopped being funny. Pape N’Diaye was very influential in the revers fixture here. He has technically played in the last two games, but he accomplished nothing in both. Anthony Robinson looked close to breaking out against St. John’s and was at least useful against Nova. In the last two he has five minutes played with turnover and foul in one game and two minute trillion in the other. Ten effective minutes from either would make a massive difference.

– Who is All Wright? Wright will start this game. What he does after that will defy prediction. Two weeks ago against Marquette he was decisive and assertive and scored 19 on 6-8 from the floor. He has three turnovers in the entire month of February. He’s Xavier’s second best free throw shooter. He also tends to be weirdly timid, taking only 13% of the team’s shots when he is on the floor despite leading the team in EFG% and true shooting percentage. There is an excellent player in there somewhere, he just needs to come out more often.

– Can Xavier play defense? When Xavier posts a defensive efficiency under 105, they win. When Xavier posts a defensive efficiency over 105, they lose. (The exception to both of those rules are the Marquette games.) It may not surprise you at all to learn that the last game was Xavier’s worst defensive effort of the year and actually the worst for over two years. Play halfway decent defense against a bad offense and you should win this game.

Three Keys

– Please don’t dig a massive hole: This team has exactly zero quit in them, but some of the circumstances they’ve put themselves in this season beggar belief. Last game was the latest, when they went down 23 to Providence in the first half and functionally ended the game as a contest with 25 minutes left. While X, of course, clawed back within seven, their chances of winning never even came close to 10%. Imagine, if you will, what this team could do if they would content themselves with only going down six or something reasonable like that.

– Get Big Fil going: Xavier is a better team when the big Serbian is scoring. Against Butler and Villanova he was a non-factor, but against Providence he seemed determined to shoot himself healthy. As Xavier started to come gasping back above water, it was Borovicanin that was getting them there. Once he was on his way, Roddie Anderson and Jovan Milicevic found room. When Big Fil is a threat to score his passing ability makes everyone better.

– Live for moments: Seasons like this aren’t going to end with a Sweet 16 run or be remembered for cutting down nets. Instead, we’ll remember moments. Tre zipping up with the frantic energy of a man who has never misjudged a zipper. Filip Borovicanin with huge shots against DePaul and Marquette. Anthony Robinson feeding one to Zuby Ejiofor. Maybe today serves us up another one.