Should the San Francisco Giants initiate a formal, but modest rebuild with just a year and a half left on Buster Posey’s deal? On Wednesday, the San Francisco Standard’s Tim Kawakami made the case that they should, based solely on the results of April and May. Around here, I’ve seen people comment about how “this just isn’t the Giants’ year” and that it’s a simple case of cataclysmic bad luck, the flip side of the unrepeatable fluke of 2021 and, therefore, a rebuild isn’t warranted. Which idea makes
the most sense?
Rebuild!
The Giants might be able to get some pretty good players in return for their players having, hopefully, just some down years. On the other hand, Kawakami’s argument is less than inspiring: because they got a bunch of average-at-best players at last year’s deadline for a pair of relievers, that means they could get better prospects for better players. Are they going to get players who are meaningfully better than the ones they got at last year’s deadline for 2-3 months of Robbie Ray and Luiz Arraez? It’s iffy. Robbie Ray has been replacement level at best this season and not many contenders need a second baseman.
He also admits that Chapman, Adames, and Devers would be tough to move this season, calling Chapman a “sunk cost.” I’m not convinced of that, which means trading Chapman might be a bit of a buy low but not one that would just be to get his contract off the books, which itself might be reason enough for teams to stay away, even if they think he’ll return to form once he gets away from San Francisco. But there’s also a chance that Chapman bounces back in a Giants uniform.
The other argument Kawakami makes is that there might be a lockout for 2027 and so the Giants might just need to reload for 2028. I’d argue that would be part of the calculation for teams acquiring Giants. Robbie Ray and Luis Arraez don’t have contracts beyond this year and so they have the most value (well, besides Casey Schmitt), but Chapman, Adames, and Devers getting a chunk of next year off just makes them that much older and past their primes come 2028. Why would anyone trade for that?
On the other hand, there’s Logan Webb, whose contract would end after 2028. If teams really do start figuring there won’t be much of a 2027, then the Giants would need to consider trading Webb *this* season to maximize a return. A season and a half of Webb would net more than just 1 season.
Teams that choose to rebuild usually do so when they’re out of talent at the major league level and need to rebuild their farm system. Once again, the Giants find themselves in the middle, having some major league talent and some minor league talent that’s up and coming. The minor league talent the team has is still 2-3 years away from making major league debuts, and if there’s a lockout that could be extended like what happened with the COVID season. And, because other teams might be factoring in a lockout, too, it might be more difficult to move high priced veterans than one would imagine. Still, moving the players on expiring deals and maybe Logan Webb would bring in a lot of talent. Those acquisitions, plus the talent rising through the system, plus the players added in this year’s draft might be enough to make this a brief rebuild window.
Don’t rebuild!
Since the 2026 Giants aren’t so different from the Giants of last year, and Buster Posey has spent the past two seasons putting together a WIN NOW team, I think the McCovey Chronicles community has it right that the Giants have the team that they want, they just don’t have the results they expected.
Now, I could argue that the Giants have never had the team that they thought they did. I’ll argue that because if you look at their record following their 19-12 start last season, they’re 84-105. They’re a bad team that has been a bad team, but they’ve been led by someone who practices the power of positive thinking, I guess.
Since this season is a dud that will guarantee the franchise goes five years without a winning season for the first time in its history, there really isn’t much upside to a teardown. That just prolongs the pain. Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames all being bad at the same time is bad luck but also not an indication that all three are cooked for the rest of their contracts. Next year (or 2028) is probably a better time to reassess, and with a salary cap likely in place soon, it makes sense to just let some things play out.
Giving a lot of playing time to “the kids” makes some sense, and we’re already seeing Bryce Eldridge play a bit more. Jonah Cox has been called up. Trevor McDonald pushed Tyler Mahle to the phantom IL. I’d like to see more experimentation on the pitching side as the lineup guys are still a few years away, but the point is that getting a new manager familiar with the league is probably done better with a roster that’s not a smoking crater. The Giants have only played like a smoking crater, well below the projections.
But here’s the reason that I am personally opposed to a rebuild: I don’t trust this front office group to pull it off. I think their draft & development strategy is working, but when it comes to the major league roster, there’s a stench of ignorance and desperation blanketing the whole thing. The notion that they could trade away talent to get talent that helps the roster in a big way sooner rather than later doesn’t make much sense to me. Sure, a pitching prospect and a draft pick for Patrick Bailey sounds great, but Patrick Bailey is also a known commodity while two non-major leaguers aren’t. Drew Gilbert and Jesus Rodriguez are big question marks. I get the calculation of taking some risks to increase the upside, but I’m not impressed by the risk hit rate during Buster Posey’s tenure, which is literally, what, signing Luis Arraez to play second base? The principles that led them to their current situation won’t change.
The current front office really thought they just had to do a few things differently to open up a window of contention for the organization. That hasn’t been the case. The Giants don’t really do rebuilds, except for those times when they have (2005-2008, 2019 & 2020), but this group wasn’t tasked with doing that. Posey is probably going to remake parts of the major league roster on the fly, sure, and count on Randy Winn and the farm system to give the major league roster some impact players in the next 2-3 years, but to call it a rebuild or even consider it one just doesn’t seem like a solid path. Plus, I don’t think the Giants can get much in return for their highest paid players — if anything at all — in which case, what’s the point?
