For quick reference, my projected scores for the Saturday games will change based on the results from the Thursday games. I’ll try to update if possible, but no promises.
Expect this article to drop every Thursday morning for the next two months.
Updated AmEast Power Ratings
Thursday, Jan. 8
UMass Lowell @ Bryant (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- My Score Projection: Bryant 73.4, UMass Lowell 71.4
This game is always fun. I don’t think these programs like each other very much.
This will be strength on strength — Lowell’s offense against Bryant’s defense. The Bulldogs will switch and rim-funnel, while the River Hawks will attack the rim on cuts, rolls
and offensive rebounds.
While Lowell’s bigger wings were able to simply bash Albany downhill, it’ll be much tougher trying to do the same against Bryant’s massive roster. It’s also worth mentioning that Lowell hasn’t been strong in isolation creation (.55 PPP, fourth percentile), which could be a problem against Bryant’s switch.
On the other end, Bryant’s offense has to get going here. It’s a home rivalry game against a weak defense — the weakest defense the Bulldogs have faced all season by a significant margin — the perfect setting to score a bunch of points and have a feel-good game.
As mentioned on these virtual pages, the Bulldogs have been leaning into more spread pick-and-roll creation with Ty Tabales, and while he’s going to have his struggles, I thought he was pretty good against Maine. The Black Bears are a brutally tough ball-screen coverage team to play against, while Lowell can’t stop a soul off the dribble (.97 PPP allowed, fourth percentile) — Albany created 31 points on 31 pick-and-roll sets.
Ultimately, I think Bryant’s defense holds strong while the offense finds enough avenues to victory, grinding out a close win. I’m excited to watch Tabales going from a brutal matchup to a good one.
Maine @ UMBC (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- My Score Projection: UMBC 69.8, Maine 59.7
I’m so excited to see UMBC in conference play. I adore this team.
The Retrievers will get their first shot to prove their chops against a down-and-out Black Bear team. Not to mention it’s an wicked situational spot, given UMBC had the off-day last Saturday, it’s the conference-play home opener, and the Retrievers are looking for revenge after getting blown out in both head-to-head meetings last season.
Last year, Maine ripped UMBC apart off the dribble. The Bears are still a perimeter-oriented, dribble-first, ball-screen-motion offense, but they no longer have Kellen Tynes or Jaden Clayton, and they’re multitudes worse as a result. At the same time, UMBC’s dribble defense has improved substantially with the addition of all the sizey backcourt and wing transfers (.64 PPP allowed, 92nd percentile).
Maine needs to lean into post creation with TJ Biel and Keelan Steele because you can still beat UMBC there (1.14 PPP allowed, second percentile). If the Bears still had Killian Gribben, I’d be inclined to think they could.
On the other end, Maine’s extended pressure defense is typically the antithesis of Jim Ferry’s motion-based, drive-and-kick offense. The Bears can break up the Retrievers’ actions at the POA, as they did in last year’s meetings (UMBC scored 62 points in the first meeting and 50 in the second). While Maine isn’t as active, disruptive, or good defensively as last season, Chris Markwood has started instilling that mentality upon some of the younger guards, so the defense is getting back to its roots.
You can cut on the Bears and get to the rim, so maybe this is the game Josh Odunowo finally re-establishes himself as UMBC’s alpha. If Markwood calls a lot of zone, that’ll be a good thing for the Retreivers, who are an electric zone offense because they can play around and through Odunowo in the high post (1.13 PPP, 81st percentile).
I’m partial to thinking this will be a rock fight, and I’m hopeful that UMBC wins that battle convincingly.
Injury notes: Jah’likai King should return after missing UMBC’s final non-conference game. Mekhi Gray’s status is unknown after missing the AmEast opener against Bryant.
New Hampshire @ NJIT (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- My Score Projection: New Hampshire 68.2, NJIT 66.4
NJIT simply out-rebounded its way to a win at Binghamton, but I doubt the Highlanders will be able to do the same here against a Wildcat front-line that’s rock solid on the defensive glass.
That said, NJIT mostly wants to attack off the dribble or one-on-one in the post, and New Hampshire’s individual defense isn’t great. The Highlanders should get their fair share of points from David Bolden and Sebastian Robinson, and maybe Melvyn Ebonkoli has another big game on high-low post-up action.
Does Ebonkoli make a massive difference on the other end of the court? That’ll be key against a Wildcat offense that attacks primarily through the post. Ebonkoli has been injured for most of the year, and the Highlanders have not held up well in post coverage without him (1.01 PPP allowed, 15th percentile).
Binghamton @ Vermont (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- My Score Projection: Vermont 82.2, Binghamton 64.2
Demetrius Lilley is likely still injured (perhaps for a while), meaning Gus Yalden should steamroll through the Bearcat front line.
Vermont’s dribble defense is vulnerable, and the Catamounts’ interior defense could be extra vulnerable if Noah Barnett and David Simon are still unavailable. That would give Jeremiah Quigley and the rim-running Bearcats a shot up at Patrick.
However, I would expect John Becker to mix in plenty of 2-3 zone to hide Yalden behind his lengthy wings and guards, and that would be a bad thing for Binghamton — the Bearcats’ style profiles as a bad zone offense, and they grade out as a bad zone offense (.83 PPP, 13th percentile).
I don’t think Binghamton can be competitive, but I haven’t seen Vermont’s already-lackluster defense without both its top defensive bigs yet — I’m hearing Barnett is very doubtful, while Simon is less doubtful.
Saturday, Jan. 10
New Hampshire @ UMBC (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- My Score Projection: UMBC 73.0, New Hampshire 66.5
It’s a great matchup because UMBC’s biggest weakness is post defense and New Hampshire will play entirely through the post. Belal El Shakery could have a big game.
The Wildcats can also keep UMBC out of transition, and they’re decent at denying attack-and-kick catch-and-shoot opportunities, which is the lifeblood of UMBC’s offense.
I’m partial to thinking the Wildcats can put a scare into the Retrievers on Saturday. Although I’d rather that not happen, given all the UMBC stock I own.
Bryant @ Albany (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- My Score Projection: Albany 70.7, Bryant 68.7
Another fantastic opportunity for Tabales and the Bulldogs to get the offense going against a weak Albany dribble defense.
On the other end, this might be a good matchup for the Danes. They’re very comfortable in isolation creation with Amir Lindsey and Jaden Kempson, while Bryant naturally forces a high rate of isolation.
It could be a sneaky high-scoring ballgame.
Maine @ NJIT (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- My Score Projection: NJIT 63.5, Maine 61.4
What a game. Yuck.
Another great opportunity for Ebonkoli and the NJIT frontcourt pieces — Ari Fulton, Jordan Rogers and Malachi Arrington — to sprinkle in more of those high-low and post-up actions. Maine’s extended pressure defense can be had at the rim, but I don’t see Bolden and Robinson creating much off the dribble against the hard-nosed Black Bears.
NJIT can be a tough matchup for Maine because of Grant Billmeier’s dribble-denial scheme. But, at this point, every defense is a tough matchup for Maine.
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- My Score Projection: UMass Lowell 79.8, Binghamton 73.9
This is a pretty big opportunity for Binghamton. I don’t trust the River Hawks’ rim defense, and I think the Bearcats will have ample opportunity to cut, roll and post their way to points. Plus, Lowell doesn’t have a guard that can match up with Quigley.
But if Lilley isn’t back on the court, Austin Green and the Hawks could grab 20 offensive rebounds and score 40 second-chance points.
That said, this game might come down to who turns the ball over less.
