For the Royals, aside from free agency, the biggest part of the offseason occurs on December 9, which is the penultimate day for the Winter Meetings in blustery Orlando. On that day, the league will hold
its draft lottery. Since the Royals missed the playoffs this year, they’re right back in it.
Specifically, the Royals, who finished the season just above .500 at 82-80, have a 0.84% chance of landing the top pick, according to this article from Baseball America. Only two teams in the lottery have worse odds than the Royals, and they both finished with better records but still missed the playoffs—the Mets and Astros.
In its effort to deter tanking, MLB instituted some new rules a couple of years ago that prevent teams from continuously picking in the lottery based on different reasons. For example, let’s take a look at the moribund Colorado Rockies, who finished a league-worst 43-199. Finishing with the worst record in other sports either locks in that team drafting first overall or gives that team the best odds at landing the top pick. Not so anymore in baseball. Because Colorado (1) is a revenue-sharing recipient and (2) because they picked in the lottery the past two drafts, they will pick, at best, tenth.
Similarly, the Nationals finished with a worse record than the Royals, ending the year at 66-96, better than only the aforementioned Rockies and the Chicago White Sox, while the Angels finished 72-90. But because Washington and Anaheim (?) a) are revenue payors and b) picked in the lottery last year, neither can pick in the lottery this year.
The Royals, as a revenue-sharing recipient and having made the playoffs in 2024, thus skipping the draft lottery, don’t share Colorado’s problem.
The new draft rules started in 2023. For the purposes of the Royals, know that a team cannot be a revenue-sharing recipient and draft in the lottery in three consecutive drafts. And by “draft in the lottery,” I mean “draft in the top six.” Such a team could still land that 10th overall pick, which, in my mind, is being part of the lottery, but it seems that MLB disagrees.
That’s right: the lottery only applies to the first six picks in the draft. After that, it’s based off a team’s record, unless you’re the aforementioned Rockies, Nationals, and Angels, and then it’s after the top 10.
Manfred, am I right?
MLB.com ran this article just over three years ago after the first draft lottery took place. It goes into some detail about how the process works, which boils down to the determination of four ping pong ball combinations. In all, there are 1,001 combinations that can be drawn via the ping pong balls, which are numbered 1 through 14.
In the example used, the first pick* went to the team with the combination of 11-8-10-2. That happened to be the Pittsburgh Pirates, which was then one of the three teams with the highest number of combinations assigned to them—165, or 16.5%.
*The actual lottery takes place before the broadcast lottery, and the actual lottery starts with the first pick as opposed to the broadcast starting with the sixth pick.
More drawings are then held to determine the rest of the lottery picks—again, that’s picks No. 2 through No. 6. If a combination gets drawn that’s assigned to the Rockies, Nationals, or Angels, that drawing is void and another one starts.
Back to the Royals. The team’s 2024 season threw them a lifeline by removing from the lottery process. In 2023, the Royals picked eighth (Blake Mitchell). The following year, they picked sixth (Jac Caglianone). Thus, they were ineligible to pick in the lottery last year—but their good record kept them out of that conversation. No penalty for winning. As such, the team’s true first-round pick last year came in at No. 23 (Sean Gamble). They also landed a comp pick. You can determine for yourself whether that constitutes a real first-rounder or something entirely different than a first- or second-rounder.
As stated, the draft lottery takes place Tuesday, December 9, the second-to-last (penultimate!) day of the Winter Meetings. The draft, however, doesn’t take place until July—the Saturday before the All-Star Game, to be exact. To be exacter, that’s July 11th.
As for who the Royals could land—well, they’ll have a much better idea about that tomorrow night, and even better idea in July. But here are a few of the names projected to go at the top of next year’s draft.
Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA—That’s also one hell of a name.
Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep (FL)—committed to Miami (FL)
Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
Here are some names for the 15-20 range.
Maddox Maloney, SS, Oregon
Tyler Spangler, SS/3B, De La Salle (CA)—no relation to Egon (who, alas, doesn’t spell his last name with an “a”)—committed to Stanford
Kevin Roberts Jr., OF/RHP, Jackson Prep. (MS)—committed to Florida
Gabe Gaeckle, RHP, Arkansas
Brady Harris, OF, Trinity Christian Academy (FL)—committed to Florida
One last thing. The Royals probably won’t land the top pick, but I just wanted to share what teams previously did as well as their odds to do so. It may not be all peaches and roses, but a chance remains. Looking at you, 2024.
2025—Washington Nationals, 10.2%
2024—Cleveland Guardians, 2.0%
2023—Pittsburgh Pirates, 16.5%
The MLB draft lottery will be held at 4:30 CT on Tuesday and will air on MLB Network.
