Alright TOC Nation, this article is going to serve as our entire preview for this game. The four of us are more interested in focusing on any sport other than football at this point, so I figured I would
just have someone else tell us what we need to know. Jonah Parker from Black Heart Gold Pants sat down with me and shared some info. Let’s see what he had to say.
1. Last season, Iowa went 8-5 after losing their bowl game. What were your expectations coming into this season? What has been the single biggest factor in Iowa either exceeding or falling short of those expectations?
JP: Coming into the year, Hawkeye fans collectively and I personally had pretty lofty expectations for this season. When we polled our community pre-season, the consensus was a final regular season record of 9-3. That was in line with my personal prediction.
To this point, Iowa fans have been on a roller coaster ride of emotions. The loss to Iowa State early in the year was not fully expected and then having Indiana be legit for a second straight year was a surprise to most in our fanbase. Dropping those two games seemed to spell doom. But coming out of that, the vibes turned much more positive.
On the whole, I would say the team has fallen short of expectations, though it has felt incredibly close to being a special year. Ifs and buts and all, but Iowa is essentially one play away in each of their four losses from flipping those results. If they pick up wins in any of those games the season feels very different.
Your question on a single driver of the miss is an interesting one. There have been plenty of things that have gone wrong and it certainly hasn’t been the same each week, but on the whole I would say the most frustrating thing so far has been the lack of a downfield passing game. Mark Gronowski has been much better as a runner than we expected, but he tweaked a knee just as he was getting things together and has just not been able to open things up in the passing game the way we had hoped. To me, that more than anything else is the difference between being a middling 6-4 team and a 9-1 or 8-2 playoff contender.
2. For years, the identity of the Iowa Hawkeyes was of a defensively stout but offensively challenged football team. That all changed in 2024 when the nepo-baby was relieved of his position and Tim Lester was brought on as offensive coordinator. This year, Iowa is scoring 13 points per game more than they were in 2023. Tell us about his system. What is Iowa doing well? Where does the offense still need to grow?
JP: The version of Iowa that everyone has come to know and love (?) is alive and well (??). Still a stout defense. Still a run-first approach. Still passing challenged. But make no mistake, the offense in two years under Tim Lester is lightyears ahead of what we had as a national laughingstock under Brian Ferentz.
Lester runs a modern offense and is a professional OC – both massive upgrades from BF. It’s a version of the Shanahan system that’s still based in the zone running game, but the notable differences opponents will see on the screen are the introduction of the RPO game, a significant increase in pre-snap motion and the use of the QB run game.
I mentioned above that QB Mark Gronowski has left plenty to be desired in terms of the downfield passing game, but his running has been much better than expected and that’s helped put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses, especially in the redzone. Iowa still ranks poorly nationally in total yardage (in part due to the pace of play – on a per play basis they’re much more middle of the pack) and especially passing yardage, but they’re significantly more efficient. The Hawkeyes are top-30 in RedZone efficiency and points per play and a lot of that comes down to Lester’s ability and willingness to use Gronowski’s legs on a compressed field.
3. The Iowa defense is still going strong, ranked fourth in the Big Ten in both yards allowed (282.5) and points allowed (14.8). What is your base formation? What level of the defense is the best? Who is the one player that MSU coaches need to be aware of?
JP: The Iowa defense under Phil Parker is the Iowa defense under Phil Parker, always and forever. The Hawkeyes run a base 4-2-5 or 4-3 based on opponent personnel – if the offense is in 11 or lighter, Iowa will match with a 4-2-5 and the “cash” position (a hybrid safety/corner), if they go heavier with multiple backs or tight ends, Iowa will go to the traditional 4-3. They’re going to sit in a 2-high look and mix coverages underneath.
What’s been a bit different this year has been the increase in blitz packages as Iowa’s front four has really struggled to generate pressure on their own. They’ve been OK against the run, but have struggled getting home against decent offensive lines. What we’ve seen in the recent losses has been the lack of pressure leading to good QB/WR combos finding the soft spots in the zone before anyone can get home.
It’s an interesting situation given pre-season, most people would have said the front four was the strongest unit on the defense. The secondary was a massive question mark, particularly at corner and the linebacking crew is entirely new after losing All-American Jay Higgins and All-Big Ten selection Nick Jackson to the NFL. At this point in the season, I think the linebackers have grown into a serviceable state while the secondary is now perhaps the strongest unit. But again, they’ve been picked on recently in part because the front has struggled.
4. Back to offense, Iowa has also been pumping tight ends to the NFL lately, with 5 being drafted in the past 8 years, three in the first or second rounds. Is there anyone on this years’ roster who will carry that torch? If not, who are the names to know on offense?
JP: The move to Tim Lester may have meant the end of Iowa’s push for claim of the TEU title. We’ve seen a real move away from the traditional Iowa usage of the position and that has been accelerated by significant injuries to the team’s top options at the position. Starter Addison Ostrenga is out for the year and as Lester has moved to more and more modern formations and personnel groupings, Iowa has leaned on the position less and less.
Having said that, freshman DJ Vonnahme has really emerged in the absence of Ostrenga as Zach Ortwerth has clearly fallen down the depth chart and Hayden Large has been both banged up and relegated to more of a blocking role. Over the last two weeks, Vonnahme has hauled in 6 catches for 102 yards and a score with an average YPC of 17 yards. I would expect to see him targeted a handful of times on Saturday and he could be the one to develop into the next Iowa tight end in the NFL.
Beyond him, though, it’s been a really mixed bag in the passing game. Sophomore Reece Vander Zee is Iowa’s biggest target and has proven reliable… when healthy. He missed most of last year and has only played in five games so far this season. He only has seven catches on the year, but they’ve been big ones, including a TD and he also threw a TD a week ago against USC. And then Kaden Wetjen is a name Spartan fans should recognize from the return game, but Tim Lester has really been making an effort to get him involved in the screen game, on jet motions and on some shorter routes underneath.
5. Fill in the blank. Iowa will win if __________________.
JP: Like every week, I think Iowa will win if they can establish the run and play ahead of the chains/scoreboard, generate pressure with their front four and win the turnover battle.
As noted, Iowa has struggled throwing the ball and that is particularly true when faced with obvious passing downs. The WR room is not elite and Gronowski is a good runner who can read a defense but lacks high level arm strength. So playing ahead of the sticks, leaning on the run game and getting into neutral game scrips where his legs can be a factor is an absolute must for Iowa to win.
Similarly, on the other side of the ball, the front four has struggled creating pressure, but they’ve been able to get home when they’re able to pin their ears back (save for in must-stop situations at the end of games gahhh!!).
And both of those are set up with the turnover battle. Again, Iowa is not built to turn the ball over 2+ times and win and the best teams have always been great at generating 2+ from opponents.
6. Predict the final score.
JP: There has been some skepticism in the fanbase after back-to-back crushing losses about what this team has left to fight for. I’m of the opinion this staff recruits a certain mental makeup and I think senior day is going to have Iowa ready to roll. I expect to see the running game established early and often and will say now we finally get a couple deep throws that connect from Gronowski. The defense forces their turnovers and Iowa comes out on top, barreling toward an end of season where the fanbase can bemoan just how close we were to being actually good.
Iowa 31, MSU 16
