The New York Giants travel down I-95 this weekend to take on the Washington Commanders.
The Giants are carrying a 3-1 record and are currently in sole possession of first place in the division, while the Commanders are 1-3 and in last place. Despite that, the Commanders are 3.5-point favorites over the Giants at home.
Both of these teams are already beat up and have lost core players to injury. However, one significant difference is that Jayden Daniels decided to forego surgery on his dislocated elbow
in order to return this season, while Jaxson Dart had to have season-ending surgery on his knee. Daniels is back and practicing fully, and is almost certain to get the start against the Giants.
The Commanders are counting on Daniels to turn their season around and get them in the divisional hunt. The Giants, meanwhile, are looking to build on the momentum of one of the most exciting defensive performances we’ve seen in some time.
The defensive turnaround
Rarely do we get to see an in-game turnaround like we saw from the Giants’ defense against the Cardinals’ offense. The Cardinals’ first two drives were difficult to watch from the Giants’ perspective. Then the second quarter hit and it was as though a switch had been flipped, and while the same players were on the field, the Giants’ play was very different.
The actual schematic differences were somewhat subtle, but they had a profound impact.
The Giants used man coverage rules on the first two drives, but then switched to much more Cover 1 with press man coverage in the second quarter. The look was similar, however the rules are different and the secondary played more aggressively. Likewise, Wilson began using more A and B-gap pressures. While he continued to walk Tremaine Edmunds and Arvell Reese up to the line, there was an effective blitz disguise that dropped the walk player back into coverage while the other blitzed from the second level. That isn’t a common path for NFL defenses, but the Giants’ speed made it possible.
Likewise, the defensive front played less to eat blocks, or stack and shed them, and more to penetrate into the backfield. That helped disrupt the Cardinals’ off-tackle runs before they could develop.
Washington’s offense with Jayden Daniels
This is yet another game in which the Giants’ defense doesn’t have much tape to go on. The Commanders have played four games so far, which does give the Giants a fair amount of tape on the general shape of new OC David Blough. There are enough similarities between Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota that the tape with Mariota at starting quarterback is still useful for the Giants.
However, it still isn’t quite the same as tape of Daniels. He’s his own man, with his own strengths, weaknesses, preferences, and tendencies. And unfortunately for the Giants, there are only 109 snaps worth of tape on Daniels in Blough’s offense. That’s not nothing, but it’s also not a ton to go on.
Going back to Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles, there were some notable trends.
First and foremost, the Commanders primarily played out of the shotgun, using zone blocking schemes in more condensed formations. Outside zone seemed to be their bread and butter, with a sprinkling of inside zone and misdirection eye-candy to spice things up. We should expect a steady diet of outside zone runs from Washington as they test the perimeter of the Giants’ defense after the Cardinals’ early success there. Washington hasn’t run the ball particularly well this year, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scoring just 1 touchdown on the ground. Bill Crosky-Merritt is their most frequent runner, carrying the ball 56 times so far, but he’s also only averaging 2.8 yards per attempt.
The quarterback run game is much more dangerous, with Daniels averaging 8.3 yards per attempt on 12 rushes. Against the Eagles, Daniels scrambled three times for 29 yards, while his two designed runs only totaled 2 yards. It’s worth noting that both of those plays were read-option runs and they came in the Red Zone, so that’s something of which the Giants will need to be alert.
Washington’s passing game was primarily in the short-to-intermediate area of the field. That’s likely due to a couple factors. First and foremost is the nature of Vic Fangio’s defense in Philadelphia limiting vertical passing. Likewise, the Commanders need to account for the loss of left tackle Laremy Tunsil to injury. 2024 third-round pick Brandon Coleman has moved from left guard to left tackle, and has allowed a team-high 14 pressures (sixth-most in the NFL). Coleman is an obvious target for the Giants’ pass rush, and the Commanders will likely try to help him with double-teams, chips, and quick passes.
We don’t know the status of receivers Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs as of this writing. Neither of them practiced to start the week and both are dealing with hamstring injuries and could miss the game.
Their absence would leave rookie Antonio Williams and Dyami Brown was Daniels’ top targets in the passing game. Williams is both quick and fast, as well as a natural catcher of the ball and a threat to pick up yards after the catch. That said, he’s a bit undersized at 5-foot-11, 187 pounds, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Commanders try to get him matched up on Dru Phillips or a safety.
If McLaurin and Diggs are both out, we’ll likely see Daniels distribute the ball to Williams as the primary option, followed by tight end Chig Okonkwo and backs Rachaad White and Crosky-Merritt (both of whom are dealing with injuries as well). If Washington’s two veteran receivers don’t play, we might see quite a bit of Deonte Banks covering Okonkwo after his success against Trey McBride last week.
The big confounding factor in all of this is that we don’t know precisely what wrinkles Blough has in store with Daniels at quarterback. Just how much of their offense is, as yet, unseen — and how the Giants respond — will be one of the major pivot-points in this game.
How to play a Daniels-led offense?
This is, of course, the question facing the Giants this week.
We saw just how much faster and just plain better the Giants played in the final three quarters against the Cardinals. Playing press-man coverage, mixing pressure looks, and attacking the offense ignited the Giants’ defense and allowed them to smother a talented Cardinals’ offense.
The X-factor in all this is Daniels and his legs. Daniels is a talented passer, but his mobility is what maximizes his arm talent. The question the Giants will have to answer is just how mobile Daniels will be. Playing pressure defense and attacking gaps creates opportunities for mobile quarterbacks. Missed or evaded tackle attempts are opportunities to scramble and extend plays, or pick up yards on the ground. Likewise, man coverage plays to the Giants’ strengths in the secondary, however that also takes eyes out of the backfield and makes the secondary slower to react to quarterback runs.
The answer has traditionally been to spy the quarterback, and that’s a viable route for the Giants. The duo of Tremaine Edmunds and Arvell Reese are among the longest and most athletic linebacker duos in the NFL. They can cover a lot of ground, and are secure tackles when they arrive. That could make them effective counters against Daniels on the ground.
Taking things a step further, Wilson could make use of simulated pressures. Walking Reese, Edmunds, or both, up to the A or B-gaps to show pressure before backing them off into coverage will help to muddy Daniels’ reads and confuse their battered offensive line’s protection calls.
Likewise, a Fire Zone blitz that sends a fifth rusher but creates a layered defense behind the pressure could give the Giants the ability to use their athletic rushers without compromising their ability to cover behind it. Mixing simulated pressures, smart blitzes, and Green Dog (ie: a blitzer only rushing if a running back stays in to pass protect) blitzes could help keep Washington off balance while playing to the Giants’ strengths.
The Giants’ defense is obviously better when they’re using their speed and being aggressive. However, they also need to do so in ways that don’t allow Washington to pick up easy yards.
Using their athleticism to disrupt Washington’s offense without creating opportunities for easy yards is a knife-edge line for the Giants to walk. But a win could depend on it, as they can’t allow Daniels to get comfortable, nor can they allow him to run wild.
