As we prepare for the 2025 Syracuse Orange football season to begin, we bring back a TNIAAM staple this week. These previews are not our actual predictions, but rather a look at how the Orange could end up with a certain record this season.
If you’re anything like me and you own EA College Football 2026, you’ve done everything in your power to get Syracuse into the College Football Playoff and then pull off the string of upsets to win the whole thing. But this is real life, not a video game: what’s
the high variance outcome of upsets that lead to the Orange pulling an Indiana Hoosiers and coming out of left field to crash the playoff?
Let’s start by defining what “Playoff Qualification” for Fran Brown’s team would look like. The reality is that there are different standards for different teams teams based on schedules, conference, and opportunities for big wins. Thankfully, the harder your schedule, the less wins you need. And the Syracuse Orange have one of the toughest schedules in the sport, leading to 9-3 threshold to be considered for the playoff.
If we set nine wins as the threshold to reach, there are two different paths the Orange could get kicked down to end up in Playoff consideration. The first is what we will call the “Tennessee,” which is to win your non-conference games and built up enough hype in metrics and media so that a conference title game appearance isn’t necessary. The second option is what we’ll call the “SMU” which is make the conference title game, something that the committee has said it values highly in the current format. Which one of these do I think Syracuse can pull off? Well…
No. 24 Tennessee: Loss (0-1, 0-0)
Look I don’t think the Volunteers are particularly great in comparison to the rest of the SEC, but they still have a ton of 5 star talent across every position and have a QB transfer in Joey Aguilar I think is a great fit. They are a better team this week than Syracuse, but I don’t think the gap is nearly as large as Vegas originally thought, as evidenced by the line moving from as much as 16 in favor of Tennessee to its current 13.
UConn: Win (1-1, 0-0)
Don’t overthink this one: The Huskies are not as good as their record shows, and last year’s scare should be enough motivation to remind this team to play up, not down.
Colgate: Win (2-1, 0-0)
Again: just win big and get Rickie Collins some snaps.
at No. 4 Clemson: Loss (2-2, 0-1)
This is going to sting, but there’s still a path to the playoff even with this win. Why do I think that this game isn’t likely a win even in a playoff season? Playing Clemson so early in the season keeps them (most likely) healthy, and their offense should decimate the Syracuse defense. I don’t think that Week 4 is enough time for the Orange offense to keep up in a shootout.
Duke: Win (3-2, 1-1)
With two losses on the books, the magical run needs to start somewhere, and there’s no place like home. Manny Diaz has done a great job with Duke and they still have a high priced QB transfer, but much like Syracuse, the metrics all indicate that they are a prime regression candidate. In an outcome where Cuse gets the bounce, someone has to take the fall.
at No. 16 SMU: Win (4-2, 2-1)
Like Duke, I think SMU is primed for some regression after their strong 2024 campaign. Additionally, any scenario in which ‘Cuse makes the ACC title game (and then the playoff) will require having tie-breakers over a bunch of one loss teams, and so SMU takes the L here after their defensive line gets pushed around by the Syracuse offensive line, while Kevin Jennings Jr. makes the mistakes we’ve seen him make in big games.
Pittsburgh: Win (5-2, 3-1)
Fran has to get the monkey off his back (0-2 vs northeast ACC rivals) and beat Pitt, and I think the hype around Pitt is massively misplaced. I know there’s excitement around Holstein and how he started the season, but he’s still just a sophomore and the Pitt offense has never been consistent over a full season. Syracuse scores just enough to win this gritty game.
at Georgia Tech: Win (6-2, 4-1)
Here’s another preseason hyped team in the ACC, but unlike Pitt, I think this team is very well constructed and built in a way that can be a problem. If ‘Cuse wants to win this one, they take advantage of the one weakness this team has (along the defensive line) and takes control of the trenches to grind out the clock and keep the Yellowjacket offense on the sidelines a majority of the game.
North Carolina: Win (7-2, 5-1)
I am on record saying that I think that the UNC experiment is combustable for a variety of on the field issues before the Jordan Hudson of it all is even considered. By this point in the season, the Orange should know exactly how the new look Tar Heels are performing, which I think will be aggressively “mid” as the kids say. The Orange will be jacked because of the Halloween primetime game and win big at the Dome.
at No. 10 Miami (FL): Win (8-2, 6-1)
Here’s the other massive ACC upset needed to catapult the Orange into the ACC title game. I think Miami is a much better defensive team than last season, but I’m far less confident in their offense side of the ball. In this version of the simulation, Carson Beck has exploitable weaknesses, and the Orange put Mario Cristobal in a situation where his time mismanagement loses them another game.
at No. 6 Notre Dame: Loss (8-3, 6-1)
Thank goodness this doesn’t count as a conference game. Even in the most rosy of simulations, I can’t see the Orange beating a Notre Dame team that thrived last season on taking care of business after their early season slip up. Marcus Freeman has done the unthinkable and turned Notre Dame into a consistent tank of a team, and Steve Angeli will just have to wait for his revenge.
Boston College: Win (9-3, 7-1)
As I mentioned in the Pitt section, Fran sweeping the ACC Rivals this season feels like a big necessity, if only to lock down the “Northeast Tough.” A big bounce back game with a trip to the ACC title game on the line? I trust the Orange to get it done at home.
Once again, I’m not saying this is likely. However, there’s a simulation out there somewhere where this is a plausible outcome, and we’re going to enjoy a world where Clemson and Syracuse get to compete for the ACC Title game, and the Orange are in the playoff as a result.
