Two weeks in the NFL is a literal blip during a 17-game regular season. Last season, through two weeks, the New Orleans Saints had the top offense in the NFL. We all know how last season ended for them. Having said that, there are surprises in the first two weeks of 2025 and trends that couldn’t be predicted. For instance, the Cincinnati Bengals (yes, Joe Burrow got injured during Week 2) and the Philadelphia Eagles are 30th and 32nd in the NFL in explosive play rate.
Who could have seen that coming?
Another team in the bottom five in explosive play rate (15+ yard runs and passes) is the San Francisco 49ers at number 28. The bigger shock is that the 49ers are tied for last in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans in explosive run percentage at 0.0%.
I’m here to present the case for why the 49ers offense is about to pop, and this week will be the first week of multiple weeks of Kyle Shanahan and his offense beginning to roll in both areas. Let’s get it out there: Mac Jones and Christian McCaffrey are tied for the longest run of the season, with 13 yards, which is surprising, to say the least. Shanahan’s offense is designed for explosive gains from the run game.
So, what is the issue? Well, it’s not one answer. The lack of explosive runs is a combination of execution in blocking from the offensive line and other blockers, Christian McCaffrey still rounding into shape in 2025, and the amount of two-high safety looks, which are designed to flow into stopping the run. Defenses are presenting odd-man fronts and two-high looks, but it’s not something new to Shanahan and how defenses prepare to slow down his offense.
What about Arizona? Why am I predicting an offensive improvement against Arizona, who sit at number five in the NFL with a 50.9% two-high look? The 49ers’ passing offense in Week 3, with Mac Jones or Brock Purdy, will be the key to unlocking breathing room in the run game. Even if Max Melton and Will Johnson play on Sunday, Melton has a better chance than Johnson, both are dealing with injuries that knocked them out of their Week 2 matchup, and they will not be 100 percent and spry. Nickel corner Garrett Williams went to IR. That’s Arizona’s top three corners missing.
Another positive development is the 49ers’ success passing against two-high safety looks. The idea is to limit explosive passing plays with two safeties and keep everything in front of them, but the 49ers are looking to attack the middle of the field. Attacking single high safety looks in the passing game has been their most successful defensive look to exploit (0.23 EPA, ninth in the NFL), but against two-high looks, the 49ers have posted a 0.14 EPA. Passing successfully will push the two safeties further from the line of scrimmage.
So, I’ve used some nice analytics to paint the picture for this offense and their future, but not all analytics line up with the film. One could look at the 89.1% light box percentage against the 49ers on defense and say: the running game isn’t facing stacked boxes. Yes and no. Defensive fronts that have more than four on the line are designed to slow down outside zone. The two safeties aren’t technically in the box, but creep close enough to cover and fly up to run fit in tandem with their linebackers. That number is misleading.
This sounds like an indictment of the 49ers’ chances of being able to get on track running the football on Sunday. I’m not predicting the 49ers running all over the Cardinals, but the little things that will lead to big runs should be cleaned up in the home opener, and you can bet Shanahan wants to show out at Levi’s Stadium. Arizona’s defensive front is impressive, no doubt, but Carolina’s passing offense was able to do whatever they wanted last week, especially after the injuries to the Cardinals’ secondary.
Don’t be shocked if the 49ers begin the game throwing the football on Sunday. Jones and the 49ers opened the game against New Orleans by throwing the football in an effort to back the Saints off. The running plays were there to be had last Sunday, but the little details limited the potential for big plays. Shanahan provided detailed information in his press conference yesterday.
When you look at the running game right now, the yards per carry are low. Are defenses just loading the box?
“No, it’s actually more the opposite, more two-shell defenses and stuff. The blitzes were considered loading the box, but they’re doing it with more two-shell stuff. But we haven’t got a big one. I think it’s harder to get big ones versus two shell. I think versus the Saints, we had the longest carry on them versus a two-shell defense in a year and one game. I think it was 13 yards. But, there are a couple plays that we’ve been one guy off on that I thought we could’ve got a big one on, especially versus some eight-man fronts. But it takes 11 guys to do it. You can’t get a big one when one guy’s off. But I’m not too concerned with the run game, but I’d like to get more production.”
Arizona’s coverage tendencies lean largely to zone coverage without blitzing. The Cardinals blitz at a 14.2%, which is 31st in the NFL, and play Cover 3 at 32% and Cover 4 at 30%, both easily team highs through two weeks. The 49ers are fifth in the NFL in EPA per play against non-blitzes at 0.11. Arizona’s secondary is banged up, and the 49ers are successful against the looks Arizona will likely present, which equals ample passing opportunities.
The 49ers’ offense, their rushing attack specifically, is close. Sunday’s matchup with Arizona figures to be a close game as it usually is, but passing the football to push the defense back and fixing small execution mistakes are the keys for the 49ers’ offense on Sunday.
The offense is on the verge of breaking out on the season, and the beginning of an offensive roll begins on Sunday.
For a more detailed discussion with Niners Nation’s editor, Kyle Posey, check the video below.
