The Philadelphia Eagles are riding a five-game losing streak entering Sunday Night Football against the Washington Commanders, a team they beat in the season opener. Can the Birds win a game for the first time since September 20?
In order to preview this Week 8 NFC East battle, I reached out to our enemies over at Hogs Haven. The amicable Andrew Y kindly kindly took the time to answer my questions about this upcoming battle. Let’s take a look at the answers.
1 – In our Q&A exchange ahead of Week 1, you said that the Commanders are “one of the most boom-bust teams in the NFL.” There’s clearly been more bust than boom so far. What’s the biggest reason why?
In short, I would say: injuries, two rookie
coordinators figuring out how to call plays, and poor preparation and in-game decision making that I mostly blame on HC Dan Quinn. I should also throw in that GM Adam Peters deserves some blame for botching the Center situation in the offseason by starting week 1 with career backup IOL Nick Allegretti as our starting Center. On the plus side for Peters, he found a serviceable Center off the scrapheap in Lucas Patrick who has started at Center since week 3.
In terms of injuries, the Commanders’ week 5 injury report had 23 players on it. I don’t remember seeing another injury report that long! Many of those players are on the mend and likely to play this week, but some key remaining absences are LT Laremy Tunsil (out for the year), RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (the best pure rusher on the roster), WR Terry McLaurin (torn patellar tendon, may never be the same player again), and DT Javon Kinlaw (one of our better penetrating IDL).
In terms of the coordinators, we knew it was going to be risky having two coordinators who have never called plays in the NFL before and that is bearing out. On defense, DC Daronte Jones is trying to implement the complicated and almost unique Brian Flores defense from Minnesota. The defense is difficult to implement because it requires players to be very versatile, with even DTs occasionally dropping into coverage and CBs blitzing the QB. Even in Minnesota, the Flores defense was ranked 16th in yards allowed in its first two years before being ranked 3rd last year and 1st this year, and I think a lot of the improvement is due to players getting better at understanding their responsibilities. In addition, Daronte Jones is a first-time NFL playcaller and I think is showing a bit of slowness in adapting to mid-game changes by the opposing offense. On the other side of the ball, OC David Blough is a first-time playcaller with only two years of coaching experience and it’s occasionally showing. He has a good playbook, but plays are taking too long to get called, players are taking too long to get set, and Blough hasn’t been adapting well enough to blitzes by building hot routes into his plays.
In terms of Dan Quinn, it’s a lot. Even though the Commanders are somewhat middle-of-the-road in terms of number of penalties, they are exceptional at getting penalties that erase big plays. The Commanders have the most yards erased by penalty in the NFL right now, and I think that comes down to coaching and ultimately, Dan Quinn. In addition, Quinn’s in-game decisions have cost this team games. If he had called for a field goal on the last play in overtime against the Giants, it’s almost certain the Commanders would have won that game. Most importantly though, he’s supposed to be a defensive head coach, yet the Commanders defense has been atrocious the entire time he’s been here. The defense is better under Jones, but it’s still the 9th worst defense in terms of points allowed.
2 – The Commanders decided not to fire Dan Quinn during their bye. How much longer do you think he has left?
Reports have been pretty unanimous that owner Josh Harris would rather not fire a coach mid-season, so I think Dan Quinn should be safe until the end of the season unless it looks like the team has quit on him (which it hasn’t). For all his other faults, Quinn has traditionally been great at maintaining the locker room and keeping players motivated, so I don’t think they’re likely to quit on him. At the same time, I think the team would have to not only win the division, but also win a playoff game to keep Quinn around until next year. So I think the most likely outcome is that Quinn gets fired at the end of the season.
3 – Should Washington sign Jayden Daniels to a contract extension this offseason? Will they?
Yes and yes. Although Jayden has made a few high-profile gaffes in situational awareness in recent games, he’s the biggest reason the Commanders are in those games to begin with. He’s adapted to a new (very different) offense really well and is playing from the pocket and even protecting himself better with his choices. He’s showing the passing ability you would want from a QB and is an amazing scrambler to boot. My only major concern with Jayden is whether or not he can stay healthy. However, he missed very few games in college and almost all of his games missed in the NFL (both last year and this year) have been due to his left elbow. I’m hoping he has just had a bit of a complicated left elbow problem that will ultimately get fixed. From what I understand, the ligaments in his left elbow may not have healed from last year, which is a low-probability, but very real risk whenever someone dislocates their elbow. It can be fixed with a replacement of damaged or torn ligaments with cadaver ligaments, which I expect Jayden to get after the season is over.
4 – What’s the biggest matchup in the Commanders’ favor and the biggest matchup against their favor?
In terms of favorable matchups, WR Antonio Williams won his matchups against CB Cooper DeJean in week 1, so I expect that matchup to get exploited again. The Commanders also did a pretty good job in week 1 of limiting the Eagles run game outside of Jalen Hurts scrambles and I expect them to do it again. The Daronte Jones/Brian Flores scheme is particularly good at stopping the run.
The biggest matchup against the Commanders is probably the Eagles DL against the Commanders run game. The Commanders have not been able to move the ball effectively on the ground outside of Jayden Daniels’ scrambles. I think the issue is partly run blocking, partly abandoning the run in playcalling, and partly that very little capital has been invested in the RB room.
5 – Who wins this game and why? With the Commanders currently listed as 5.5-point home favorites, what’s your score prediction?
Maybe 23-17 in favor of the Commanders. In Week 1 when these teams played, the Eagles offense relied heavily on Jalen Hurts scrambles to move the ball in critical situations. Tanner McKee doesn’t seem to have the same scrambling ability. The Commanders also let in a lot of interior pressure in that matchup with Nick Allegretti playing at Center. With Lucas Patrick there now, the pass protection should be improved.
