After a series split against the Padres that saw they sink below .500 and then part ways with a former first round draft pick, the Diamondbacks don’t to take a breather. They go straight into a series against the Dodgers, including facing off against two of the best pitchers in baseball. It will be a test to see how much, if any, resiliancy is in this year’s version of the team, as one of one of their last chances to prove the team should be buyers at the deadline.
Game 1 — 7/10, 7:10 PM: Eduardo Rodriguez (4.1 bWAR, 7-3, 2.25 ERA/191 ERA+, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Shohei Ohtani (5.6 bWAR, 8-2, 1.79 ERA/232 ERA+, 0.94 WHIP)
Eduardo Rodriguez continues his
push to be this years “Best pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani.” Since the start of May, he has only given up more than two runs twice, the team has won nine of his twelve starts, and his ERA has plummeted to the low twos. The concern about his FIP remains. It is sitting at almost two runs higher than his ERA, 4.00 flat. It suggests there is room for regression, but the Diamondbacks will keep riding this wave as long as it takes them, or until the trade deadline, whichever comes first.
Oh look, speak of the devil, it’s Shohei Ohtani. Not sure what to say about him that hasn’t been said already. He’s the greatest to ever do it. He’s doing it for three million per year, or whatever the stupid deferred number is. He’s an amazing hitter, and he’s also a good to very good, depending on the season, pitcher. Unfortunately for this game, he is on the very, very good side of pitching this season, and I’m not looking forward to seeing him face the slumping Diamondbacks offense.
Game 2 — 7/11, 6:10 PM: Brandon Pfaadt(-0.2 bWAR, 2-1, 4.84 ERA/89 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.8 bWAR, 9-5, 2.49 ERA/166 ERA+, 0.87 WHIP)
Pfaadt made his triumphant return to the rotation and has impressed in his first two starts back. He’s gone 5+ innings in each, and given up one run in the first game and held the Padres scoreless in the second. He’s been up and down for all of his career, but if he is going into an up swing right now, it would be at a moment the Diamondbacks need it the most. He’ll face a much steeper challenge this time out, having faced the Giants and Padres, who own the worst offense in baseball, in his first two starts.
Yamamoto has also been great this year for the Dodgers, if not quite as great as Ohtani. That’s okay, though, who is. Like Rodriguez, his FIP is higher than his ERA, but this time only by about a run. That might be an opportunity for the Diamondbacks. It’s still going to be a tough task regardless, given their struggles as well.
Game 3 — 7/12 1:10 PM: Zac Gallen (-1.6 bWAR, 3-9, 6.34 ERA/68 ERA+, 1.56 WHIP) vs. Emmet Sheehan (0.0 bWAR, 4-6, 4.91 ERA/84 ERA+, 1.27 ERA)
Gallen is broken, and I’m not going to let the fact he pitched four decent innings after blowing the game in his last start convince me otherwise. No matter what Bert and Bob may say.
Finally, the Diamondbacks face a normal pitcher. Sheehan has been inconsistent over the past month or so, with runs allowed ranging between just one, as well as six. Perhpas most interestingly, the Dodgers have lost four of the last five games that he has started, so he does represent something of a chink in the armorHIs last two starts have been solid, though, seeing him pitch into the fifth in both and only give up one run in each. The caveat of that is, though, that he was facing the Padres, as mentioned the worst offense in baseball. Problem is, we haven’t been much better lately.
Conclusion
This has the potential to get very ugly, very quickly. It would be very easy to write off all three games as automatic losses and focus on England vs. Norway this weekend instead. In fact, I suspect many of us will do just that. Oddly enough, I do think that our best bet is the Gallen game, though more because of Sheehan than Gallen. The other two are going to take a hefty amount of luck to pull off the upsets. Only time will tell, though.
