Based on a supercomputer analysis, Bayern Munich star striker Harry Kane is currently the second ranked player in terms of likelihood to win the Ballon d’Or.
As of now, the England international is sitting behind last year’s winner — Paris Saint-Germain and France attacker Ousmane Dembélé. According to BetBrothers, Dembélé will win back-to-back Ballon d’Or trophies. PSG already won the Champions League and France is one of the favorites to win the World Cup. Declan Rice, who would have been higher
if Arsenal had won the Champions League final against PSG, is ranked third in the list. The breakdown is as follows:
- Ousmane Dembélé, PSG, France: 25%
- Harry Kane, Bayern Munich, England: 19%
- Declan Rice, Arsenal, England”12%
- Bukayo Saka, Arsenal, England: 8%
- Michael Olise, Bayern Munich, France: 8%
- Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid, France: 6%
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG, Georgia: 5%
- Lamine Yamal, FC Barcelona, Spain: 4%
- Vitinha, PSG, Portugal: 3%
- Jude Bellingham, Real Madrid, England: 2%
- Joao Neves. PSG, Portugal: 1.5%
- Erling Haaland, Manchester City, Norway: 1.5%
- Raphinha, FC Barcelona, Brazil: 1%
- Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid, Brazil: 1%
- Achraf Hakimi, PSG, Morocco: 0.8%
- Pedri, FC Barcelona, Spain: 0.7%
- Julian Alvarez, Atlético Madrid, Argentina: 0.5%
- Lionel Messi, Inter Miami, Argentina: 0.4%
- Federico Valverde, Real Madrid, Uruguay: 0.4%
- Cristiano Ronaldo, Al Nassr, Portugal: 0.2%
The methodology for the supercomputer was to estimate each player’s chance of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or, a simulation-based model was used once all projections were modelled. Projections were based on a weighted model, which took into account statistics, betting markets, likelihood of winning major honors, sentiment analysis and historical weighting. The formula was simulated 10,000 times, with each percentage reflecting the number of times each player won the prize.
If you are looking for more Bayern Munich and German national team coverage, check out the latest episodes of Bavarian Podcast Works, which you can get on Acast, Spotify, Apple, or any leading podcast distributor…
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