Vance Honeycutt might be in the running for the best career of any position player to ever play baseball for North Carolina, but he hasn’t had an easy time of it since being drafted in the first round by the Baltimore Orioles in 2024. Through a season and a half in High-A ball, it looked like the concerns around his swing-and-miss and strikeout rate were going to end up overpowering all the tools he brought to the table, as he was striking out on over 40% of his plate appearances and thus not really
giving himself a chance to put up any numbers. It looked like he might have turned a corner in spring ball, when he hit home runs in four straight at-bats and appeared to have reworked his swing into something more repeatable. But when he went back to the High-A Frederick Keys, it was unfortunately more of the same: 43% of his plate appearances ending in strikeouts and a dismal slash line of .182/.285/.359. He’d slipped from 5th to out of MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 prospects for the Orioles and was looking at a steep climb uphill if his big-league dreams were to be realized, because the list of players who have recorded that many strikeouts as a minor leaguer and become successful in The Show is basically empty.
Those stats and that situation don’t scream “guy ready for promotion,” but who knows what the Orioles organization was seeing under the hood. Maybe they were tinkering more with his swing. Maybe they thought he just needed a change of scenery. Or maybe they were just letting him sink or swim, giving him the opportunity to prove he’s still worth putting resources into developing. Whatever it was, they decided to promote him to their AA affiliate, the Chesapeake Baysox, on August 17th.
And whatever it was, it’s paying dividends. Honeycutt looks like a completely different player against AA pitching — through four-ish weeks, 16 games, and 65 plate appearances, he’s slashing .339/.431/.661 with 3 home runs, 11 RBI, and 10 stolen bases, and an OPS over 1.000, compiling a high-but-manageable 21.5% K rate (and is 2-5 with two home runs and a stolen base in his 17th game as I’m writing this, basically in my backyard no less). I don’t know if new coaching and a new environment has unlocked something for him, if AA pitchers are just giving him more opportunities to swing at something in the zone, or if the independent coach who recently posted about working with him during the month of August has something to do with it, but it’s a near-unprecedented turnaround for a minor league prospect and has Honeycutt looking like a bona fide prospect again.
Obviously, Honeycutt’s Double-A numbers come from a much smaller sample size than the problematic High-A ones. But he never even approached having a month like this in High-A, and we’re starting to get to a point where the sample size is big enough that it can’t be ignored entirely. Maybe this pace ends up being unsustainable for the former Tar Heel, but I think seeing him fall all the way back down would be even more surprising than the turnaround has been. As it is, he’s putting himself in a great position to maybe be looking at Triple-A at some point next year, if after a likely lockout, and resuming the trajectory that he put himself on as he wrote his legend at Boshamer Stadium.
Plenty of other recent Tar Heels are doing pretty well in the minors — including Kane Kepley, who’s the Chicago Cubs’ fifth-ranked prospect in his second year as a pro — and we’ll likely have a roundup of all of them once the minor league season is over in a few days. But this potentially career-saving stretch from Honeycutt was certainly worth covering on its own.
