On Wednesday, we talked about the Detroit Lions’ floor for the 2026 season. Based on the team’s talent and their easy-looking schedule, it’s fair to say that even if most things don’t break the Lions’ way this season, expectations remain very high. Currently, 61% of Lions fans polled in Wednesday’s Question of the Day have Detroit’s floor at nine games or higher.
Now, let’s look at the optimistic side of things. Just two years ago, the Lions produced a franchise-high 15 wins. While that season ended
in a hugely disappointing Divisional Round exit, it shows just how dominant this team can be—even under non-ideal situations (ie: tons of injuries, including no Aidan Hutchinson).
It’s debatable whether this 2026 Lions team is as talented as the 2024 team, but the core of that roster remains intact, and most of it enter this season healthy.
So today’s Question of the Day is:
What is the Lions’ ceiling for wins in 2026?
My answer: Well, if you look at the betting lines for each individual game in the Lions’ 2026 season, you’d be hard pressed to find a single “unwinnable” game. The Lions are underdogs in just three games this season, and all three opponents are favored by a field goal or less:
- Week 2 at Bills: Buffalo by 3
- Week 17 at Bears: Chicago by 1.5
- Week 18 at Packers: Green Bay by 2.5
It wouldn’t be shocking in the least for Detroit to pull of any of these upsets, and if Detroit just took care of business, then an undefeated season is on the table!
Okay, let me come down from that high for a second, because while I do believe that literally all 17 games should be considered winnable, that’s not how it’ll play out. Detroit’s 15-win season in 2024 is rare enough, let alone an undefeated season. Since the year 2000, there are just six teams who have won 15 games in a single regular season. If we expand that to 14 wins or more, that group of teams jumps to 23—or nearly one per season. And don’t forget that the league only recently jumped to a 17-game schedule.
So realistically speaking, I think 14 wins is the Lions’ ceiling for the 2026 season given historic trends, the Lions’ schedule, and their talented roster.
Putting it all together, I have the not-so-bold take that Detroit’s window of possibilities this year is between 8 and 14 wins.
Let’s hear your take!
