It seemed too far to think about back on May 22 when the Atlanta Braves were up by 10.5 games in the NL East standings. It felt terrifyingly frustrating when that lead was whittled down to just two games on July 12 following a terrible June and a slow start to July. There was nearly a sigh of relief on August 12 when the lead had gone back up to 9.5 games for the Braves.
So here we are in early-September and it turns out that these seven games between the Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies this
month are likely going to decide who’s going to win the division. A lead that once felt comfortable early in the season (and even last month) has now gone down to four games — which is coincidentally the number of games that these two teams will be playing in Philadelphia through Labor Day Weekend.
The good news for the Braves is that, well, the lead is still four games. By hook or crook, the Braves have continued to find a way to win games and hold onto the lead, even with the Phillies having put pedal to the metal in recent times. As such, Atlanta’s still in the driver’s seat to hold onto the divisional title — FanGraphs is giving Atlanta an 84.7 percent chance of winning the division heading into this series and they even have an outside shot at getting the bye to the Divisional Round as well. They’re tied with the Dodgers but they have the tiebreaker thanks to winning that season series and while Los Angeles has a cakewalk (on paper) down the stretch, they’ve still got to play the games and there’s no guarantee that the Dodgers are going to avoid getting tripped up, themselves.
PECOTA is a bit more skeptical of Atlanta’s chances of holding onto the division but not by much — that model is giving Atlanta a 70 percent shot at winning the division and a 30 percent shot at making it as a Wild Card. Perhaps the most important thing to note here is that unless Atlanta has the ultimate collapse, the Braves are likely going to be playing baseball in October no matter what. So even if the worst-case scenario plays out over the course of this weekend’s series, as long as Atlanta avoids the collapse to end all collapses across the rest of September then they’ll be getting into the bracket.
With that being said, it sure would be nice to see Atlanta get on a roll, nail this division down and go for the bye. As frustrating as the past three trips to the Postseason have been for the Braves (especially the first two of those three appearances), getting the bye is still a pretty big deal. It’d allow Atlanta to reset their rotation, the bullpen would get some much-needed rest and they’d start out in a five-game series instead of an ever-volatile three-game series. As much as it would seem like simply going straight into the Postseason in the Wild Card round would be beneficial to keep everybody in the usual swing of things (pun intended as far as the offense goes), it is still extremely risky to have your entire season come down to just three games.
It’s especially risky to try to play the matchups as well. With the way the National League has been this season, there’s really no favorable matchup to try to “tank” for — no matter if it’s the Cubs, Diamondbacks or Padres (maybe even the Marlins if they get hot down the stretch or even the Phillies if they run out of gas), the Braves are going to be in for a fight no matter who they get drawn with in any given three-game series. The home field advantage will be huge but it’s still going to be difficult.
As such, it’s going to be absolutely crucial that the Braves get a move on for the rest of this month and it starts this weekend in Philadelphia. Of course the ultimate goal is to simply put everything way this weekend with a sweep but I think we’ve all got to operate in the reality that that’s a highly unlikely result. The series opener on Friday with Chris Sale starting against Cristopher Sánchez feels like it really might set the tone for the next three days. If the second game comes down to Martín Pérez having to get a result against Zack Wheeler (who’s been scuffling as of late), I’d have confidence in Pérez at least being able to keep Philadelphia within striking distance or even quiet. Pérez has been getting massive results all season and there’s no reason to have that faith waver at this point.
Tyler Mahle vs. Aaron Nola is going to be a pretty massive matchup between the crown jewel of the trade deadline (go figure) and a Phillies vet who has been finding a bit of a second wind lately. Hopefully by Monday, the Braves will have clinched at least a split of the series since it would be asking a ton out of Grant Holmes to go out there and deliver a big performance with Jesús Luzardo looming on Labor Day. Essentially, I’d imagine that Atlanta going into Monday having to get the split or even attempting to salvage simply leaving town in first place would be a tough spot to be in so again, hopefully the Braves will have already picked up two wins before Monday rolls around.
The two biggest questions as far as the bats are concerned for both teams is this: Can Atlanta’s lineup figure it out away from Truist Park and can the Braves neutralize the lower portion of Philadelphia’s lineup? Bryce Harper has been on a real heater lately (even for his standards) and it’s part of the reason why the Braves decided that they didn’t want Bryce Elder going anywhere near the guy during this series. Kyle Schwarber is always a looming threat but he hasn’t been producing at a super-high level since the start of August. Still, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott have been dangerous lately and it really feels like Harper, Bohm and Stott are going to be the guys to be extremely careful with. Luis Arraez could also be dangerous as well.
Still, the lineup outside of Harper isn’t too imposing and the Braves are not-too-far removed from having mostly neutralized the top of Los Angeles’ lineup. The main problem in that series was the bottom portion of the lineup doing damage and potentially setting things up for the top guys. The Braves got away with it against the Dodgers — they may not have the same fortune if the top of Philadelphia’s order comes up with ducks on the pond.
Still, none of this matters if the Braves can’t figure out a way to put runs on the board. Granted, most of their road trips since July have involved them dealing with some of the very best pitching that baseball has to offer this season and as such, Atlanta has only hit .224/.278/.341 with a .274 wOBA and just 70 wRC+ away from home since the break — tied with the Yankees for the worst mark in all of baseball in that span. At the same time, hitting away from Truist Park has been a bit of a struggle for the Braves throughout the season. Atlanta is hitting .238/.303/.392 with a .305 wOBA and 91 wRC+ on the road throughout this season compared to a .259/.322/.433 with a .330 wOBA and 109 wRC+ so far this season.
Is the offense that showed up in Washington going to make their presence felt in Philadelphia? Will Ronald Acuña Jr. getting that 200th dinger finally encourage him to start getting things rolling at the plate? Can Mauricio Dubón keep coming up with massive two-out hits? Will Matt Olson come out of his recent doldrums in time for this series? Will an unlikely hero emerge like Ha-Seong Kim, Lane Thomas or even the suddenly-hot Sean Murphy? Does Michael Harris II have some more larger-than-life moments left in him in this particular ballpark? It’s all on the table heading into these next four games.
They’re going to have a massive task on their hands considering how the Phillies have pitched over the course of this season and especially in recent times but plain-and-simply, the Braves are just going to have to figure out a way to rise to the occasion and push some runs across the plate. Just like they’ll need to figure out a way to silence both the bats and the crowd in Philadelphia this weekend. Just like they’ll need to figure out a way to stay on top of the NL East going forward. Atlanta doesn’t need to win this series and a split will probably do the trick in order to keep them in the driver’s seat but they’ll have to go out there and grab it instead of letting the Phillies set the tone.
It may not be October quite yet but the vides are certainly moving in that direction considering just how many times these two teams will be seeing each other over the next 10 games. The most crucial stretch of the season begins this evening. Let’s see if the Braves are up to rise to the challenge that’s ahead of them.
