Every now and then, we have to try an attention-getting headline, but I promise, I will explain this below.
In the fall of 2021, the Guardians traded a teenage prospect for a right-handed starter. In 2024, that starter put up 2 fWAR and a 3.00 ERA. In 2025, the teenager (now grown) put up almost 5 fWAR and a 129 wRC+. So, it was a trade they lost, but at least the starting pitcher is decent, huh?
Ok, so, you know the reality of the situation. The Guardians gave up on Tobias Myers who proceeded to figure
things out with Milwaukee before running into some injury issues in 2025. Junior Caminero, meanwhile, looks to be a cleanup hitter for the forseeable future for the Rays. This was a terrible trade that the Guardians have expressed public regret for making… while proceeding to seem somewhat terrified to trade prospects for major-league ready talent in the intervening time period. I would suggest, however, that the Guardians have learned the wrong lesson from the Junior Caminero trade fiasco; let me explain.
The Guardians have given all indication that they are not capable of competing for the best free agents in MLB, but they have compounded the issue by not being willing to move top prospects for proven major league talent. The Guardians had one of the three worst offenses in baseball last season. By ZiPS, their current offense is set to be around 17th, by Steamer around 15th, and by Bat-X around 23rd. Perhaps the ZiPS and Steamer projections are closer to the truth… but if so, they rely a lot on healthy seasons from two especially injury-prone players in George Valera and Chase DeLauter. The overall projections also ignore what are likely to be huge issues against LHP since the Guardians’ only right-handed hitters set to make the roster are David Fry, Austin Hedges, Gabriel Arias and either Stuart Fairchild or Angel Martinez.
So, the clear need is for an established value in one, veteran right-handed bat who can either play first base, right-field, center-field or second base. And, yet, the Guardians have not managed to add a player who fits this bill. Is it because the Guardians are afraid to touch top prospects such as Chase DeLauter, Travis Bazzana, Cooper Ingle, Angel Genao, George Valera, or Juan Brito? Are they even afraid of a repeat of the Junior Caminero experience by trading a Juneiker Cacares, Dauri Fernandez, Welbyn Francisca, Aaron Walton, Dean Curley, Luke Hill or Nolan Schubert? Are they afraid to trade a starting pitcher prospect like Braylon Doughty, Joey Oakie, Rafe Schlesinger, Cameron Sullivan, Josh Hartle or Khal Stephen forgetting TINSTAAPP??
Obviously, I am not in the rooms where the trade talks are happening (or not happening). But, I do have some evidence from public rumors that the Guardians were heavily in on Matt Olsen and Sean Murphy trades but balked at the prospect asks from Oakland (who HAD to be asking for players like DeLauter, Valera and Espino, who have been hurt basically since the day the Guardians declined to include them). I have the evidence of the team’s public regret for the Caminero deal. The Guardians know that their best shot to win a World Series is to do it with a young, athletic, cheap roster of successful prospects. They are right. But, they also won’t win a World Series without adding proven, veteran talent when clear holes exist on a competitive roster… which is what they have. Right now. In Cleveland.
There are lessons to be learned from the Junior Caminero deal. The team cannot ignore elite exit velocity and contact rates from young hitters in their system to pursue a marginal upgrade. However, they can take a risk for a significant hitting upgrade to provide stability to a volatile set of projections for the offensive side of their roster. It’s time to consider Travis Bazzana for Ketel Marte. It’s time to see who Tampa Bay would be willing to consider for Yandy Diaz. It’s time to remember that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect when seeing which young, starting pitcher the Orioles would be willing to consider for Ryan Mountcastle (to be clear, I am advocating a Schlesinger-type here NOT a Doughty/Oakie/Hartle/Stephen-type). Is there a prospect package that could pry Brent Rooker away from the homeless Athletics? And, yes, I’d like the Guardians to even risk offering a bigger prospect return for Luis Robert, Jr. so the White Sox could pay most of his contract for 2025 and the Guardians could have a shot at a legitimate centerfielder who reliably hits southpaws. Maybe none of these players are available for a reasonable price, and maybe their respective teams just hate Guardians’ prospects. But, man, I sure hope the specter of the Caminero trade isn’t short-circuiting potential conversations in these areas.
The Guardians really need one bat who can feasibly stabilize the middle of the order, mash lefties, and provide a boost to floor of their offense. I do not want the mistake of trading Junior Caminero to cause them to hoard and overfetishize prospects instead of taking a risk to get a bat who can offer meaningful chances at improving their batting.
