Last week, this roundtable was down on the Longhorns’ chances of doing what it takes to salvage a frustrating season. Does Saturday’s performance against Missouri change your outlook for the final three regular-season games?
Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) — Sark finally showing some offensive adjustments certainly gives a glimmer of hope. On top of that, Arch Manning is coming off his best game of the year and looked sharp. LSU on the road at night will be a tough test, but I feel like the team’s trajectory is pointing up after the win in Columbia.
Jacob Neidg (@jneidig_2) — Yes, it does. The offense showed real life against a solid defense without four starters. Only Coleman is expected back, but the results were still
encouraging. More importantly, it also put Texas in a position to drop one more game and still be included in the playoffs. This LSU team might be the most talented squad Texas has played since the Ohio State game, and Texas can afford to lose, possibly.
Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) – Yeah, it does. I was concerned about the injuries in the secondary against a good Missouri passing game, but Warren Roberson held up well despite the Tigers trying to go after him, and he combined with Graceson Littleton, who was in danger of missing the game, on the huge fumble return that put the game away. On offense, seeing Steve Sarkisian fully pivot back to some schemes that have worked well for the Longhorns in the past, along with efficient play from Arch Manning, has me feeling better about Texas winning the last three games.
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) — It looks like Sark has decided to supplement the run game with short passing and screens, which I think is where this offense can thrive. That allowed Texas to play complementary football for the first time all year, so it was exciting. We know the defense will be solid at worst each week, so if the offense is competent enough to score four times, I feel Texas can succeed and close out the year.
Arch Manning played the best game of the year, and the Texas offense looked, dare I say, competent against the Tigers. What stood out most to you about how the Longhorns approached the game plan Saturday?
Daniel — The passing game was quick and didn’t require Arch to hold onto the ball for an eternity with long developing routes downfield. He got the ball out quickly to his playmakers and gave them a chance in space. On top of that, Raleek Brown was able to make the offensive line right as a ball carrier. He took advantage of his expanded role within the offense with Hollywood Smothers on the shelf for the remainder of the year.
Jacob — The route tree from the wideouts seemed to take advantage of what Missouri was giving rather than forcing the concepts that Sarkisian prefers. The Tigers were intent on playing a good bit of zone, and Texas took that with option routes and other route combinations that allowed Arch Manning to find players in space. The emphasis was on advancing the ball downfield rather than forcing a few shot plays.
Wescott – A lot of curls to beat zone coverage, the wheel route to Raleek Brown, and the screen to Derrek Cooper to score the first touchdown. Also heartening to see the return of some glance run-pass options and the end around to Ryan Wingo. It was more than about how Sarkisian approached the game plan, though – Manning also made good decisions with the ball, avoiding an interception for the second straight game and any turnover-worthy throws for the first time this season.
Gerald – The quick game and screens to supplement the run and loosen up the defense was a really smart move based on what this team is good at. We know the offensive line struggles, so those long, developing plays don’t really work and end up beating up Arch. Finding a way to get Texas’s explosive playmakers into space and let them explode seems smart. It was Arch’s best game of the year, and you could tell he was feeling it.
Texas heads to Baton Rouge for the first time since 1953, one of the most raucous places to play in the country. What impact do you expect the crowd and environment to have on the game plan for Saturday?
Daniel — LSU’s back is against the wall, and the season is on the line. I am expecting Death Valley to live up to every bit of the hype. A team like Texas will always bring out the energy and big crowds of a road environment. The last time we saw these two play, it was a blockbuster, and I would expect this matchup to live up to the expectations, all things considered.
Jacob — The Texas offense has committed so many pre-snap penalties that the environment doesn’t even seem to matter. I think Tiger Stadium will likely make it worse, but the Longhorns have committed false starts, illegal formation penalties, and improper shifts at a rate that suggests it is a problem regardless of where they play.
Wescott — With how much a turnover can swing momentum, I would expect Sarkisian to be a little bit more risk-averse in terms of long-developing shot plays and to play more complementary football by taking points when they are available and forcing LSU to drive the length of the field instead of going for fourth downs near midfield. Agree with Jacob that the possibility of pre-snap penalties in that environment is heightened. Texas needs to stay on schedule offensively.
Gerald — I would hope to see Sark run a similar scheme to what he did a week ago, trying to take the air out of the crowd early and control the pace of the game. Texas has struggled with discipline along the offensive line, so if they don’t go with a silent count, expect a few frustrating five-yard penalties.
Texas beats LSU on Saturday if…
Daniel — The offense takes care of the football and capitalizes on trips into the red zone. Both defenses are talented and will make moving and scoring the ball challenging, so the offense that limits turnovers and miscues will likely decide the game.
Jacob — Texas wins in the red zone. The LSU offense has had little to no problem moving the ball this year. It doesn’t matter who they’re playing or what the opposing defense does; these guys can put up yards. However, they’ve lost games when they’ve struggled on fourth down, in the red zone, or when they’ve turned the ball over. If the Longhorn defense can force empty drives or field goals, things swing in their favor. On the other side of the ball, Texas has to punch it in when they get chances. They can’t settle for field goals or let penalties derail touchdown-scoring opportunities.
Wescott – The defense should be healthier this week, which is a boost for the Horns, so I think this comes down to how the offense executes. If the running game keeps getting hit with negative plays and Manning turns the ball over, the odds of winning drop drastically.
Gerald — Win on first and second downs. Putting this offense in 3rd and Longs often will not only force Texas away from the quick game and lateral passing, but it will make the LSU crowd a bigger part of the game.
LSU is a 4.5-point favorite over the Longhorns according to FanDuel. Will Texas prove the oddsmakers wrong?
Daniel (6-3/3-6 ATS) — Texas proved me wrong last week, so I am going to give them an opportunity to prove me right this week. Give me Texas in a low-scoring affair in Baton Rouge. Texas 20 LSU 17.
Jacob (7-2/4-5 ATS) — I think Sark knows his offensive line is overmatched against the LSU front, and will scheme a game plan that relies on quick throws, screens, etc. which ultimately frees up Arch mentally and plays to Texas’ strengths. Give me the Longhorns in a high-scoring, aggressive affair where Manning and Co. actually match or outperform the Texas defense. Texas 31, LSU 27
Wescott (4-5/3-6 ATS) – Texas has enough offensive firepower to score some points against a talented LSU defense and the Longhorns come up with a big turnover defensively to swing this game. Texas 27, LSU 24
Gerald (5-4/3-6 ATS) — We’ve seen how good Texas can be when they play complementary football, and these are the kinds of games that Sark gets his teams up for. That being said, LSU has dudes on defense and this is a must-win for Lane Kiffin in Year 1, so I expect them to come out and punch Texas as hard as they can. Texas 24, LSU 20
