The Detroit Lions (2-1) and Carolina Panthers (1-2) will close out the Sunday slate of NFL games in Week 4, when the two battle it out on “Sunday Night Football.”
“Going out to their place, ‘Sunday Night Football,’ Charlotte, North Carolina,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said of this upcoming matchup. “It’ll be loud. It’s going to be one of those environments that we’ve got to be able to have poise under those circumstances. They’re coming off of a loss, and so they’re going to want to make that right.
At home, big game for them. So, we’ll get their best shot […] This will be a good test. We’re looking forward to it.”
Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and predict how the Lions will earn a victory over the Panthers in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
This week’s predictions preview is sponsored by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbook, who currently have the Lions listed at +1800 to win this year’s Super Bowl and 3.5-point favorites in Week 4.
Panthers base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 4 preview: Breaking down the Panthers’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Prediction 1: Jared Goff beats Panthers blitz, thrives by taking what’s given
Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been sensational through the first three weeks of the season, sporting the third-highest passer rating in the NFL at 116.1 and producing a 0.22 EPA per dropback, seventh-best. He’s been efficient against zone coverage (0.17 EPA, 13th), man coverage (0.54 EPS, 8th), in the red zone (0.55 EPA, 8th), and against the blitz (0.29 EPA, 8th).
The Panthers run a bend-don’t-break version of Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme (see our weekly scheme breakdown for more details). Their typical approach to defense is to cede short yardage plays to prevent explosives, force offenses to drive the length of the field on double-digit drives, and bank on offenses making a critical mistake before they reach the end zone. Despite the passive approach, the Panthers have surprisingly altered their approach this season by increasing their blitz rate: 44.4% overall (4th highest) and 37.6% on passing plays (7th highest), per NFL Pro.
So, why would a defensive scheme known for its willingness to cede yards in small increments blitz so much? As Jeremy Reisman pointed out in his observations from the Panthers-Browns game, the Panthers simply aren’t generating enough pressure with just four rushers:
- No blitz: 33.3% pressure rate (10th), 2.93 seconds to pressure (22nd)
- Blitzing: 55.6% pressure rate (fourth highest), 2.76 seconds to pressure (29th)
While the Panthers have seen production in this new approach, they may not have the same success against the Lions and Jared Goff. This season, Goff is completing 75.8% of his passing attempts against the blitz (5th best in the NFL) for 8.0 yards per attempt (10th) and four touchdowns. Last week he was flawless against the blitz; the Jets blitzed the Lions on 44% of plays, and Goff responded by completing all 14 of his passing attempts for 148 yards and a touchdown.
If Goff can keep beating the blitz, the Lions’ skill players will have huge opportunities to eat after the catch (note: the Panthers have given up 286 YAC through three games, sixth most in the NFL). If the Panthers move away from the blitz and the Lions offensive line can keep him clean against just four rushers, look for Goff to adjust again and simply take what the defense gives him. Goff’s accuracy and risk-averse passes—along with the Lions skill players’ ability to create YAC—should allow Detroit to sustain drives and put up points.
Prediction 2: Jahmyr Gibbs breaks 100 yards rushing… again
With the Panthers looking to take away explosives, expect the Lions to try and take advantage of base and light boxes by feeding Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions have leaned on Gibbs through three games (he’s accounted for 51% of the Lions’ offensive touches this season, per NFL Pro), and he’s delivered, producing a 57.8% success rate, the highest in the NFL.
On paper, the Panthers’ run defense looks atrocious. They’re allowing 193.3 rush yards per game (last in the NFL), 5.7 rush yards per game (last), 13 rushes of 10 or more yards (29th), a minimal 8.9% stuffed rate (31st), and 3.85 yards after contact (32nd), landing them at 23rd in DVOA run defense rankings.
Now, some of those numbers are skewed by a disastrous Week 1, but they still haven’t kept a team under 123 rush yards. Let’s look at how they did in each of their first three weeks:
- Week 1 vs. Bears (DVOA rushing: 9): 291 rush yards allowed, 7.5 yards per carry
- Week 2 vs. Falcons (DVOA rushing: 6): 123 allowed, 4.6 YPC
- Week 3 vs. Browns (DVOA rushing: 31): 132 allowed, 4.4 YPC
While the Panthers certainly settled down since their game with the Bears, the Lions have an equally explosive offense and currently hold the No. 2 DVOA rushing attack, averaging 120 yards per game (9th), 4.4 yards per carry (9th), 11 rushes over 10 yards (7th), a rushing success rate of 48.2% (6th), per NFL Pro.
In addition to Gibbs’ explosive ability, the Lions’ offensive line has also been getting consistent push in the run game. Despite not having Blake Miller and Christian Mahogany in Week 2, the Lions still average 2.06 yards before contact in the run game, the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
Prediction 3: Lions take away Panthers’ rushing attack
The Lions will always prioritize stopping the run, but like the Panthers, their numbers look worse than what the defense can actually do because one game skews a small sample size. Let’s take a look at how they did through the first three weeks of the season:
- Week 1 vs. Saints (DVOA rushing: 18): 91 rush yards allowed, 3.6 yards per carry, -0.03 EPA per rush
- Week 2 vs. Bills (DVOA rushing: 1): 203 allowed, 5.6 YPC, +0.37 EPA per rush
- Week 3 vs. Jets (DVOA rushing: 20): 58 allowed, 3.1 YPC, -0.23 EPA per rush
Essentially, the Lions did their job against the bottom half of the league in rushing offenses, but struggled mightily against the Bills’ No. 1 DVOA rushing attack. While it’s still early in the season, the Panthers’ rushing attack certainly looks closer to being in the same bucket as the Saints and Jets than the Bills, and the statistics back that up:
- Panthers (DVOA rushing: 21st): 97 yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, -0.11 EPA per rush
With the defensive changes the Lions implemented against the Jets, several encouraging signs suggest the run defense is trending up. When defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard was asked what he thought his defense did well against the Jets, he pointed to their run defense.
“Guys doing their job in the run game, just owning (their) gap. It starts with the front, being physical, changing the line of scrimmage. We want to play on their side of the line, […] We fire off, we get downhill on the second level, and we try to make things happen on their side of the line on our terms. And I think our guys have done that.
“They’ve done it pretty well in two out of three games, and we all know what transpired at the Buffalo game. I want to give props to some of those players that had errors in the Buffalo game and the run game. The emphasis they took and the onus they took on to go out and make sure they weren’t a repeat offender.”
Prediction 4: Lions disrupt Bryce Young with 4-man pressure
Through the first two weeks of the season, we saw the Lions defense utilize the blitz to create pressure. Against the Saints, the Lions blitzed nearly 35% of snaps, then bumped that up to 55% against the Bills. The problem was that the Lions generated a pressure rate of only 43.4%, just slightly above the league average (43%), and were gashed in the secondary after sacrificing a player in coverage.
After the Lions’ Week 3 self-reflection, Sheppard scaled back the blitz—reducing it to just 23% vs. the Jets—so they could keep another player in the secondary while also leaning on their rush end position to play more snaps and help the pass rush. The impact was immediate, with the front four improving the team’s overall sack and pressure rates and helping them vault to the top of the league in pressure rate when rushing only four players, per Sumer Sports.
While the Lions defensive line has improved its pass rush overall, the group’s superstar remains Aidan Hutchinson, who is tied for second in the NFL with 20 pressures through three games. Sheppard deploys him on both sides of the line—he has 92 snaps from the left edge and 91 from the right side, per NFL Pro—and constantly looks for ways to give the pass rusher an advantage.
However, in this matchup, the Lions may consider leaving him on the right side across from left tackle Rasheed Walker, who “has allowed 20 pressures, the most of any player in the NFL, including a league-high 10 pressures in under 2.5 seconds,” per NFL Pro.
When Hutchinson flips to the other side, he’ll likely square off with rookie Monroe Freeling (currently progressing through the NFL’s concussion protocols), who is making the switch to right tackle after playing on the left side at Georgia. Freeling has a pressure rate allowed of 9.2%, slightly better than the league average (9.6%), but has also given up three sacks (tied for the most allowed).
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has done very well passing this season, but pressure can cause him problems, and if the Lions can keep the heat on him with just four rushers, it could go a long way toward helping the secondary.
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