The top 16 teams in my projected bracket from Friday were all included in CBS’s Bracket Preview show—the best of the 10 editions of this production in my opinion, thanks in no small part to the candor and transparency provided by this year’s Committee chair, Sun Belt Commissioner Keith Gill.
At this point, the top three teams in the country seem to be extremely clear. In order, they are Michigan (Midwest), Duke (East), and Arizona (West). The No. 4 spot is where Gill’s explanation of the Committee’s
deliberations were first extremely helpful—that went to Iowa State (South) with the Cyclones’ win over Houston on Monday night being an important factor.
UConn, the top No. 2 seed, placed in the South, was in line for that final 1 seed until losing to Creighton on Wednesday night. The Huskies, who I also dropped after that result, are ahead of Houston (my final No. 1 seed, placed in the Midwest), Illinois (East), and Purdue (West). The quality of the Huskies’ best wins lifted them above the Cougars in the Committee’s deliberations.
The No. 3 and 4 seeds matched mine, though their order was slightly different. The 3 line consists of Florida (Midwest), Kansas (East), Nebraska (South), and Gonzaga (West). (My order was Gators, Bulldogs, Jayhawks, Cornhuskers.) As for the 4 line, it’s Texas Tech (South), Michigan State (West), Vanderbilt (East), and Virginia (Midwest). (My 4s in order: Commodores, Red Raiders, Spartans, and Cavaliers.)
The Red Raiders were in position for a 3 seed before the severity of JT Toppin’s injury was revealed. Gill said that player availability, not necessarily injury, was the thing the Committee is struggling with this season.
Alabama and Arkansas, two of my 5 seeds, were the two closest teams to the top 16 Cut Line.
So, by region, we have by overall seed number:
- Midwest (32 aggregate of seeds): (1) Michigan, (6) Houston, (9) Florida, (16) Virginia
- East (34): (2) Duke, (7) Illinois, (10) Kansas, (15) Vanderbilt
- West (37): (3) Arizona, (8) Purdue, (12) Gonzaga, (14) Michigan State
- South (33): (4) Iowa State, (5) UConn, (11) Nebraska, (13) Texas Tech
The gap of five between the strongest region and weakest is within the range of zero to six in the Committee’s Principles Document. Gill said that their first draft had a gap of NINE, with Michigan State in the Midwest and Virginia in the West, so those two teams were switched to lower that range.
Today’s reveal will serve as the basis for Tuesday’s bracket—and its guidance will be incorporated during the remainder of the season. This weekend’s results might very well shake things up in the interim, however.
