The Good Phight will be previewing the 2026 season by going over each position on the field. We’ll talk about the players that will occupy them, the players behind them, their strengths and weaknesses and give a few takes about how we think the season will shake out.
It’s no secret that the backbone of the Phillies success in recent seasons has been their pitching, specifically their starting pitching. Since 2023, the Phillies rotation ranks first in innings pitched (2,731.2), third in ERA (3.88),
fourth in WHIP (1.21), and first in FIP (3.78). That dominance continued in 2025, as the Phillies starters led by Cy Young runner up Cristopher Sánchez were first in innings pitched, (929.2), second in ERA (3.53), and fifth in WHIP (1.18).
But entering 2026, there are some legitimate questions in the rotation for the first time in a long time.
The rotation: Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Zack Wheeler*, Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter
Sánchez continued his ascension in 2025 and cemented his status as the best left-handed starting pitcher in baseball not named Tarik Skubal and one of the best starters overall. He was first among pitchers in bWAR (8.0), third in fWAR (6.4) and fifth in ERA (2.50) while throwing a career-high 202 innings and collecting a career-best 202 strikeouts. Sánchez’ signature changeup graded out in the 100th percentile among all offspeed pitches in baseball, giving him one of the very best pitches overall in the game. He will look to continue his dominance in 2026.
Luzardo came to the Phillies in a preseason trade and turned in the best all-around season of his career. He set career highs in games started (32), innings pitched (183.2), and strikeouts (216). The lefty was one of the best strikeout artists among starters in 2025, ranking fourth in K/9 (10.6) and sixth in strikeout rate (28.5%). Luzardo wasn’t far behind Sánchez in fWAR either, with his 5.3 mark the sixth best in baseball. His first season in Philadelphia surpassed most expectations and earned him a new contract extension. With that contract comes raised expectations. The Phillies are counting on Luzardo to continue to improve and, most importantly, put together another healthy season, as he has never had back-to-back 20 start seasons in his seven-year career.
Perhaps the biggest question mark in the rotation is the health and status of Zack Wheeler. It’s an odd thing to say, as Wheeler has been both an ace of aces and a workhorse since arriving in Philadelphia, but he is still working his way back from thoracic outlet surgery. He will not be ready by Opening Day, but it appears he may not be far behind as he is back to throwing bullpen sessions. No matter when Wheeler comes back however, no one knows exactly how the now 36-year-old Wheeler will perform after undergoing such surgery.
If Wheeler is the biggest question, the second biggest question has to be Andrew Painter. The Phillies top pitching prospect finally looks primed to make his MLB debut after missing almost two full years with a torn UCL and then recovery from Tommy John surgery. Still just shy of 23, Painter will be asked with holding down the fifth spot in the Phillies rotation. His return to the mound at Triple-A last season did not go well and there are legitimate concerns over whether he can regain his pre-injury fastball shape.
Painter has pitched well enough so far this spring, but his velocity dropped significantly in his most recent start, another issue he suffered in Lehigh last year, and he was chased from the start in the third inning. The Phillies don’t need Painter to be a star right away, but they do need him to provide some sort of meaningful production in a back of the rotation role.
Aaron Nola meanwhile is looking to rebound from a truly disastrous, injury-filled 2025 that saw him make 17 starts while saddled with an unsightly 6.01 ERA and a 5-10 record. Simply put, 2025 Aaron Nola was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Now healthy, Nola has looked sharp this spring, crediting his participation in the World Baseball Classic with Team Italy for helping him get into shape sooner. His velocity is way up from this time last year and is much closer to his career average.
Nola has averaged 205 innings pitched a season in his career. The Phillies need him to be a steady, middle of the rotation innings eater with the status of Wheeler and Painter up in the air. It would be hard to be much worse than 2026, but is a rebound to form closer to 2023 Nola (4.46 ERA) or 2024 Nola (3.57 ERA)?
The backup: Taijuan Walker
Walker will actually start the season in the rotation with Wheeler’s absence, but we’ll put him here because he occupies much more of a traditional swing-man role on this team. In that role last year, Walker appeared in 34 games including 21 starts and finished with an ERA of 4.08 in 123.2 IP that was right around the league average. Walker adopted something of a kitchen sink junkballer profile, as he threw six types of pitches in 2025. The most notable change was a plummeting of his fastball rate to a career-low 9.5% while raising his cutter usage to a career-high 30.1%, making it his most used pitch. Opponents hit .244 off of that cutter with a slugging percentage of .480 though, meaning it wasn’t some magical elixir that cured all of Walker’s previous struggles in 2024.
Nevertheless, the approach worked in 2025 and allowed Walker to give the Phillies much needed quality innings as injuries hit their rotation. Will it work again or will Walker’s still poor contact rate spell a harsh regression to the mean?
The depth: Jean Cabrera, Yoniel Curet, Alan Rangel, ???
A general lack of starting pitching depth is a bit of a leaguewide epidemic, but the Phillies in particular are razor thin in the department. The impending promotion of Painter and the mid-season trade of Mick Abel has depleted the Phillies of their upper-minors rotation depth, so much so that 24-year-old Cabrera, who has yet to pitch above Double-A, is possibly their best option in the event of a long-term injury.
Curet appeared in 16 total games in the Rays system last year and had a 6.07 ERA in eight games at Triple-A. Rangel has allowed 9 runs in 7.2 innings pitched this spring. Philadelphia brought in Bryse Wilson and Tucker Davidson as non-roster invitees to spring training, with Wilson possibly being in line for a spot on the 40-man roster after a decent spring.
Strengths: The ability to pitch deep into games while keeping pitchers (mostly) healthy
The Phillies are a bit of an outlier in that they allow their starters to pitch deep into games, as they are one of just five teams to have had multiple pitchers (2) throw at least 180 innings in 2025. In 2024, they had three pitchers accomplish the feat, one of only two teams along with the Seattle Mariners to have at least three starters cross that innings threshold. Manager Rob Thomson and the Phillies have been able to accomplish this while mostly avoiding major injuries, with Wheeler and Nola being exceptions in 2025.
Weaknesses: Lack of depth
As we’ve already touched on, the Phillies have next to nothing in the way of starting pitching depth outside of the Majors. It is nigh impossible to keep all five starters healthy and on schedule all season, despite the Phillies relatively good track record of starter health. You will need players to make spot starts here and there to get through a long season. That’s not even counting that the Phillies are already down Wheeler to start and Painter is likely on some sort of total innings limit. Outside of Walker, the Phillies really don’t have anything even remotely close to reliable rotation depth. They simply cannot afford to suffer a major injury to this position.
Hottest take: Cristopher Sánchez starts the 2026 All-Star Game
It’s no secret that Sánchez deserved to be named an All-Star last season, but instead he was snubbed in a series of events that led to Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski being named to the All-Star team despite only having five career starts at the time. This year the All-Star game will be held in Philadelphia and the wrongs will be righted, as Sánchez will be the one toeing the rubber for the National League when the game begins.
Realistic take: The rotation takes a step back, but is still among the league best
The Phillies will go as far as their rotation takes them. They should reasonably feel good about Sánchez and Luzardo heading into 2026, but everything else has varying degrees of uncertainty surrounding it. It’s because of that uncertainty that it’s reasonable to expect a step back. At a minimum, a rookie is taking the place of Ranger Suárez and Wheeler is coming off of major surgery at 36 years old.
With that being said, having Sánchez and Luzardo is a great start to a very good rotation. If the rest of the rotation can even perform to modest expectations, the Phillies will once again have a very good rotation, albeit maybe one in the top ten rather than the top five.
