In the unlikeliest of potential permutations, the Portland Trail Blazers have a direct and easy path to winning their Group and participating in the 2025 NBA Cup tournament.
Group A, informally dubbed the
“Group of Death”, includes the Blazers, the Denver Nuggets, the San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, and Golden State Warriors. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the only major contenders in the Western Conference not included in the cluster. Looking at the names, you’d figure that the Blazers have about as much chance of moving forward as a sugar cube in a Portland rainstorm.
In that vein, the Blazers fell to the Rockets in a 26-point blowout last week. Not only did that pin a loss on Portland’s ledger, it put them way behind in one of the key tiebreakers: point differential among group games. Because of that loss, Portland now stands at a -18 differential. That’s ugly.
But it may not matter. The Blazers could conceivably end up with a -17 and still win the group. Here’s how.
First, there’s overall record in group play. Obviously if a team emerges with more wins over the group than everyone else, they advance. Except in a group this tight, that’s not going to happen. There are only four games to measure by. It’s unlikely anyone will go 4-0 through this murderer’s row. And indeed, with three games in the books, the standings look like this:
- Portland 2-1
- Denver 2-1
- San Antonio 1-1
- Houston 1-2
- Golden State 1-2
As you can see, the best anybody can finish in-group at this point is 3-1. Portland, with a 2-1 record, is one of three potential candidates to do it. Denver and San Antonio are the others.
The Blazers have one game remaining in group play. They face the Spurs this Wednesday at home.
The Spurs have that game, obviously. They also play the Nuggets next Friday, accounting for both those teams’ final in-group games.
Now watch this.
If the Blazers beat the Spurs on Wednesday, Portland will finish group play with a 3-1 record. San Antonio will be eliminated because of that loss. (They’ll be 1-2 at that point, with no chance of catching Portland.)
The Spurs and Nuggets play on Friday. If Denver loses that game, they’ll finish 2-2 in group play, leaving Portland as the sole 3-1 team and the victors. If Denver wins that game, both the Nuggets and Blazers will tie with a 3-1 record.
Now you’d think that Portland’s awful point differential would come into play here, breaking the tie in Denver’s favor. (The Nuggets are +26 already. With a win over San Antonio, they’d go even higher.) But that’s not how it works. Point differential is the second tiebreaker. Head-to-head record against each other in group play is the first.
And guess what? One of the two wins Portland already owns was their 109-107 victory over the Nuggets back on October 31st. That means the Blazers already hold the tiebreaker over Denver automatically. If the two finish with the same record, Portland advances.
One win on Wednesday puts the Blazers in the 2025 NBA Cup Tournament.
If the Blazers lose to the Spurs, they’re out. Even if bunches of teams finished 2-2, the point differential tiebreaker would come into play because head-to-head records would be knotted. That would doom Portland. But that doesn’t change the fact that a win for Portland secures advancement.
Keep in mind, too, that San Antonio will be playing on Wednesday without center Victor Wembanyama and maybe a few other key players. That’s no guarantee of a Portland victory. The Blazers have lost winnable games before. But it sure opens the door.
The Portland Trail Blazers vying for the 2025 NBA Cup? It’s possible. Stay tuned.
