Okay, by the time that you are reading this, the game was a long time ago. Al’s recap went live more than 12 hours ago. You’ve had time to get the frustration out of your system and we can just take a few deep breaths and not devolve into hot takes. That’s why we start with perspective check. Here goes. Four teams have more wins than the Cubs. Two teams have as many wins as the Cubs. Sobering perspective, five of the six teams I’ve just described are in the National League. Six of the top seven teams (by
record) to date reside in the National League. Through 93 games, that’s your NL playoff field. 90.5 win pace for the team.
The wind was blowing out, the wind was blowing in. Every hard hit ball the Cubs had found a glove while the Orioles would have the softest hits find grass. Their pitcher was one of the best in baseball. Their pitcher was a total unknown we’ve never seen before. The excuses are myriad and it feels like they’ve all been done before. They feel like excuses even when I’m saying them. But we start with perspective check for a reason. We know this likely isn’t a championship roster. But it’s probably a playoff roster, warts and all.
Their record isn’t better because of all of the things that they aren’t. The record isn’t worse because of all of the things they are. It’s totally foreseeable that this team will eventually be doomed and see its season end because all of the things they aren’t. But they could win some games beyond the regular season. Are you quitting just because you know that there will be a cruel dose of reality at the end of the ride? What kind of sports fan are you? Surely not a Chicago one. Over the decades, we’ve tried to hold our teams to higher standards. Also, there have been more bad seasons in Chicago sports history, maybe than any other city has had to endure.
The headlines will say that the Cubs bullpen failed while the Orioles came through. Each bullpen threw three innings. The Cubs yielded two runs, the Orioles just one. That is in fact the difference in the game. For once, Al’s headline feels like something from my space. That pulled out view of the bullpen wasn’t up to the challenge. The in the trenches view is each team had to relay a throw to home for a play at the plate, each team had to slide safely around a close tag. The Cubs failed at both. The Orioles succeeded at both. If either of those plays ends differently, the game is tied heading to the bottom of the ninth.
My only quibble out of all of it is the throw home for the Cubs. To be fair, when that ball got down, I was certain it was a two-run double. The replay was closer than we pretty much have to challenge. It was CLOSE. But I’m pretty certain they got that call right, that they got both plays at home correct. So I’m going to hat tip the Cub relay for that even being a play at the plate. BUT, we got rid of blowing up the catcher a few years ago. We see it all of the time in the other direction. The easiest and safest play when trying to throw a runner out stealing second is to hit the middle infielder in the check with the throw. The only thing is, that’s not even closest to the fastest way to do it. The Javy tag exists for a reason. The fastest way to get an out is to have that throw basically get right into the tag with the throw. I would maybe not do THAT with catchers. Most lack the grace and athleticism of middle infielders. But, by that same token, let’s maybe not make catchers have to catch the ball and immediately lunge back across to make a tag.
One relay worked. One slide worked. That’s the whole difference in the game. Two plays, change either, the game doesn’t end on time. The rain was coming at the end. The game had been moved early to finish before the rain. God only knows what might have happened. But it didn’t. It’s another loss. Another one that felt like it got away.
That’s the thing about this love we have. This team must be pretty good, all in all. Because so much of the time that they lose, it felt like they should have won. I mean we just talked about it yesterday, this team hardly ever wins if it doesn’t score at least five runs. This team doesn’t win these games. But if you flip two plays, it does. Probably anyway. You can’t assume sequencing, after all. So close. But no cigar in the end.
Three Positives:
- Seiya Suzuki goes beast mode. Three hits, two runs batted in and a stolen base. Oh yeah, one of the hits was a titanic homer. He pretty much was the offense in this one.
- Obligatory Pete: double, walk, run scored. He does something every day now.
- David Peterson’s game definitely didn’t pass the eye test. There was loud, hard contact everywhere. You couldn’t really get comfortable watching his outing. And yet, one run on two hits and four walks over five innings. Not tidy, but pretty effective. With this offense, that’s usually going to win. Hat tip to the Orioles for shutting down the Cub offense for the most part.
Game 93, July 9: Orioles 3, Cubs 2 (52-41)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.357). 3-4, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, R, SB
- Hero: David Peterson (.124). 5 IP, 20 BF, 2 H, 4 BB, 1 R, 2 K
- Sidekick: Gavin Hollowell (.113). 1.1 IP, 6 BF, 2 BB, K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.435). 0.2 IP, 4 BF, H, BB
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.165). 1-4, CS
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.145). 0-4
WPA Notes: Hoerner lands here for the caught stealing (-.187). Pete finishes fourth here, just missing the last spot. Ryan Rolison absorbs the Billy Goat, but it was Tyler Ferguson, despite digging the hole that ultimately cost the team the game, who finishes sixth on the negative side.
WPA Play of the Game: Jeremiah Jackson’s two-run double with one out in the eighth flipped this game from a win to a loss. (.484).
Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s solo homer in the sixth to tie the game at one. (.169)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 92 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 92 percent of 62 votes. Both write-ins (Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson) were sensible choices.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +24
- Carson Kelly +15.5
- Michael Busch +14
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Trent Thornton +12.5
- Dansby Swanson -9
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Seiya Suzuki -13.5
- Caleb Thielbar -15
Up Next: On to Cincinnati. The Reds were shut out at home on Thursday, 1-0. They’ve lost seven of 10 to drop to 42-50. Another promising start fades away to obscurity. They are 21-26 at home and have a -58 run differential. Just not ready to compete in a good division in a good league.
Shōta Imanaga (5-7, 4.28) starts for the Cubs. He’s tailing a bit, with 1-2, 4.70 over his last seven. The Reds have done decently well against lefty starters (10-11). The name Hunter Greene conjures some bad memories for Cub fans. But Greene has just one start this season due to injury. He did strike out seven in just 3.1 innings. But he also allowed seven hits, four walks and eight earned runs. Against this Orioles team. He was great in three rehab starts though. allowing no runs in 14.1 innings and striking out 13. His stuff would certainly overwhelm minor league hitters. Especially given one of those starts was in the rookie league.
You can generally predict it. Bad teams almost universally have bad bullpens. There are occasional exceptions, but the Reds bullpen is 24th in ERA at 4.64. The saving grace for the Reds? Their bullpen has thrown the 14th most innings, just behind the Cubs. They’ve still yielded the seventh most homers (Cubs second). They’ve walked the most batters. So that’s what kills the Reds bullpen. That leads to the 28th best WHIP. Their bullpen can be beat if your hitters will be patient.
Grab two of three and go to the break 12 over. Good, not great.
