The Colts are back in Indianapolis for their last “home” game for the next month (technically have a “home” game in Berlin, Germany; but fans will have to wait until late November to see their team in Lucas Oil Stadium again). In their 2nd divisional matchup of the season, they get a rematch against the 1-6 Titans after the Colts won 41-20 in Nashville in Week 3.
Much has changed since the Colts and Titans last faced. 2nd year Titans head coach Brian Callahan is out, with Mike McCoy hired as the interim
Head Coach now. The Colts are now the undisputed top team in the AFC record wise at 6-1. And this time, they get an opportunity to all but end the Titans’ microscopic playoff hopes. The Titans still have 1 historical precedent for a team with their record making the playoffs: the 1970 Bengals who ran the table with 7 straight wins to make the playoffs in the first year of the NFL-AFL merger.
The Colts can officially ring in Draft season for their division rival and maintain their top spot in the AFC this week, but do the Titans present a potential trap game for the Colts with the “interim Head Coach boost” and the Colts potentially looking forward to a pair of out of state games vs the Steelers and Falcons before they hit the Bye week?
Titans Stat Ranks VS Colts Stat Ranks
Offense
- Points Scored Per Game: 13.7 (32nd) | 33.1 (1st)
- Yards Per Game: 235.6 (32nd) | 380.3 (2nd)
- Yards Per Play: 4.1 (Tied 31st) | 6.4 (1st)
- 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 45.5% (27th) | 47.5% (2nd)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 35% (32nd) | 67.7% (8th)
- Giveaways Per Game: 1.7 (Tied 28th) | 0.6 (Tied 4th)
- Punts Per Game: 4.6 (28th) | 1.7 (1st)
- EPA/Play: -0.28 (32nd) | +0.2 (1st)
The gap between these two offenses is wider than the Grand Canyon. The Colts are a either the best Offense in every metric or close to it. Even the 8th Red Zone Touchdown Rate comes with the asterisk of the Colts being 1st (93.3%) in the last 3 weeks in that metric by a good margin. Meanwhile the Titans are at last place if not near the bottom in every metric.
Rookie QB Cam Ward (more on him later), has had to endure like many 1st Overall QBs a terrible situation of porous pass protection, inefficient rushing, bad coaching, and drops from his targets. While he is far from blameless for the Titans offensive woes, the young passer is in a very difficult spot in Tennessee.
Passing Offense
- Pass Rate: 65.7% (2nd) | 53.2% (27th)
- Passing Yards Per Game: 159.9 (31st) | 250.1 (5th)
- Passing Yards Per Dropback: 4.2 (32nd) | 7.9 (2nd)
- Play Action Rate: 19.5% (27th) | 35.9% (1st)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 38% (24th) | 36.2% (19th)
- Time To Throw: 2.94 (Tied 29th) | 2.76 (12th)
- Yards After Catch: 660 (26th) | 862 (9th)
- EPA/Pass: -0.35 (32nd) | +0.25 (1st)
The Titans are a high volume passing attack, largely due to being behind on the scoreboard for nearly the entire season. They have had just 11 plays with a lead this season, lowest in the NFL and half of the next closest team. Despite this pass heavy game script, the Titans rank at the bottom in every passing metric.
Cam Ward has struggled mightily in several key areas:
- Accuracy: 46.6% Highly Accurate Throw% & 67.4% Catchable Throw%, both last in the NFL
- Sack Avoidance: 29.4% Pressure to Sack% and 30 Sacks Taken, both highest in the NFL
- Read Progressions Speed: 2.91 second Time To Throw, 11th Worst in the NFL
- Ball Security: 5 Fumbles, Tied 2nd Most in the NFL (including 2 untouched fumbles lost mid-throwing motion in the last 2 weeks)
The Titans’ issues in playing good, penalty-free pass protection combined with Ward’s slow reads and inability to escape pressure thus far this season have caused the Titans to have an NFL high 34 plays on 3rd and 10+, often killing drives. The Titans have converted just 4 times in that situation.
Ward’s sack totals could potentially threaten the NFL Record for most sacks taken, as his 73 sacks taken pace would be 2nd only to former Texans’ Quarterback David Carr’s 76 sacks in his 2002 rookie year. Guards Peter Skoronski (ranked 7th in Pass Pro Grade) and Kevin Zeitler (3% pressure rate allowed) are the bright spots of the Titans front in pass pro, but newly signed $20.5m per year Left Tackle Dan Moore Jr, 2024 7th Overall Pick Right Tackle JC Latham, and $12.5m per year Center Lloyd Cushenberry III, hav not been worth the investment in pass pro.
Safe to say their will be a lot of opportunities for the Colts pass rush to get to Cam Ward, and the Colts already had success with 4 sacks in their previous matchup against the Titans.
The key will be getting pressure without blitzing, as Ward has shown more consistent flashes vs the Blitz, ranking 21st out of 37 QBs when blitzed and 34th when not blitzed in Passing Grade. If the Colts Defensive Line can win their matchups on their own, it will be a long night for Ward.
Ward will spread the ball around to his playmakers, as 7 Titans have 19 or more targets this season. Rookie WR Elic Ayomanor and veteran Calvin Ridley are competing as the top target with 37 and 34 targets each (Ridley missed last week). Ward likes to go to both on deep and intermediate routes especially, and Ayomanor has been his favorite Red Zone target, as Ridley’s drop issues have made him less relied upon in the restricted area of the field. Ridley is currently dealing with a hamstring injury as well, which could jeopardize his availability for Sunday’s game. Expect Ayomanor to be targeted more heavily if Ridley can’t suit up.
Tight Ends Chigoziem Okonkwo and rookie Gunnar Helm are next up at 32 and 21 targets each, and favorites for shorter throws. Okonkwo is the more athletic and smooth route runner of the two, while Gunnar Helm provides more inline blocking power and reliable hands. Rookie Slot Wide Receiver Chimere Dike and Running Back Tony Pollard round out the solid volume targets of the offense, with dangerous Yards After the Catch ability.
While they may no longer have their 6th leading target in Tyler Lockett, who requested and was granted a release earlier this week, the Titans have veteran Van Jefferson waiting in the wings to step into a larger role for them.
The Titans will rotate heavily with their deep group of pass catchers, shifting between 12 (1 RB and 2 Tight Ends) and 11 (1 RB and 1 Tight End) personnel to swap Helm and Dike on the field. They also have Tyjae Spears back as their change of pace back, providing Pollard with a breather and bringing even more dangerous receiving ability. Expect Ward to air it out often and deep, but whether or not his receivers bring the catch down is another matter altogether.
Rushing Offense
- Rushing Yards Per Game: 75.7 (31st) | 130.1 (7th)
- Rushing Yards Per Carry: 3.8 (Tied 25th) | 4.6 (Tied 10th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Carry: 0.65 (27th) | 1.4 (15th)
- Yards After Contact Per Carry: 3.25 (Tied 12th) | 3.29 (11th)
- Stuffed Rate: 13.7% (27th) | 12.2% (3rd)
- Success Rate: 39.6% (24th) | 47.4% (3rd)
- Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Carry: -0.1 (Tied 25th) | +0.8 (Tied 6th)
- EPA/Run: -0.16 (30th) | +0.14 (1st)
The Titans Rushing Attack has also struggled to find success, albeit they have been more efficient than their passing game. Tony Pollard has been the featured back for most of the season with Tyjae Spears recovering from a high ankle sprain from preseason. Spears returned in Week 5 and has been the clear RB2, earning less than half of Pollard’s carry workload. Both backs get solid Yards After Contact with impressive agility and speed, but their line has struggled to generate push before contact and open clean rushing lanes.
Cam Ward hasn’t been used as a rusher in Tennessee, so he hasn’t had a strong rushing floor to fall back on. He ranks 6th worst in Rushing Yards (34), 7th worst in Rushing Yards Per Carry (2.6) among 35 QBs with 10+ rushing attempts, and scoring 0 TDs on the ground as well. Ward was a pretty good rushing QB in college and does have some speed, as he showed with a 12 yard scamper for a first down a few weeks ago. In college he had 1,061 yards and 17 TDs for a 5.4 yards per carry average in his final 3 seasons at Washington State and Miami. But he is preferring to use his athleticism to try to buy time for receivers downfield rather than scrambling himself thus far in the pros.
The Titans are split nearly perfectly between zone and gap run playcalls, with 60 zone designed runs and 59 gap designed runs. However several of their blockers have a large disparity in grading between the two.
- LT Dan Moore Jr: 84 Zone Grade | 44.9 Gap Grade
- LG Peter Skoronski: 74.7 Zone Grade | 59.8 Gap Grade
- C Lloyd Cushenberry III: 55.2 Zone Grade | 58.2 Gap Grade
- RG Kevin Zeitler: 67.4 Zone Grade | 67.1 Gap Grade
- RT JC Latham: 64 Zone Grade | 82.1 Gap Grade
- Backup T Olisaemeka Udoh: 77.2 Zone Grade | 40.2 Gap Grade
- TE Gunnar Helm: 58.6 Zone Grade | 66.2 Gap Grade
- TE Chigoziem Okonkwo 55.1 Zone Grade | 30.3 Gap Grade
The left side linemen favor zone blocking, veterans Cushenberry and Zeitler are neutral, and starting right tackle JC Latham and blocking TE Gunnar Helm have had better success in zone. On Left side runs the Titans have recorded 65 carries for 251 yards and 3.9 Yards per Carry, and on Right side runs they have 53 carries for 227 yards and 2 TDs for 4.3 Yards per Carry.
Defense
- Points Allowed Per Game: 27.4 (28th) | 20 (Tied 8th)
- Yards Per Game Allowed: 349.6 (24th) | 345.7 (22nd)
- Yards Per Play Allowed: 5.7 (Tied 24th) | 5.5 (Tied 21st)
- Takeaways Per Game: 1.3 (Tied 9th) | 1.6 (Tied 6th)
- EPA/Play Allowed: +0.06 (28th) | -0.04 (18th)
Titans also have the disadvantage on Defense, but not nearly as big of a gap compared to the Offensive one. The Titans defense has shown some signs of life at times and can be opportunistic in generating turnovers. However the unit is increasingly shorthanded, with both star Defensive Tackle Jeffrey Simmons and starting CB L’Jarius Sneed suffering injuries in Week 7, with Sneed placed on IR designated to return on Thursday with his quad injury and Simmons week-to-week with with a hamstring injury.
Backups James Lynch and Darrell Baker Jr. are expected to fill in for Simmons and Sneed.
Passing Defense
- Passing Yards Per Game Allowed: 210 (14th) | 255.4 (29th)
- Passing Yards Per Dropback Allowed: 6.7 (Tied 25th) | 6.1 (Tied 15th)
- Pressure Rate: 30.6% (26th) | 39.4% (3rd)
- Blitz Rate: 18.3% (31st) | 23.1% (23rd)
- Time To Throw Allowed: 2.76 (Tied 10th) | 2.86 (26th)
- Yards After Catch Allowed: 791 (19th) | 905 (27th)
- EPA/Pass Allowed: +0.11 (Tied 26th) | -0.04 (Tied 14th)
The Titans are the 2nd most allergic to blitzing team in the NFL, ahead of only the Cincinnati Bengals. They prefer to rush 4, but the results have been lackluster, ranking 21st in pressure rate on non-blitzes at 29.1% (Colts are 2nd at 38.6%). When the Titans do win, they win quickly, sporting the 3rd lowest time to pressure on non blitzes in the NFL. But outside of Jeffrey Simmons, none of the Titans pass rushers are winning consistently unless they are a blitzer.
Simmons is responsible for 23 of the Titans 88 pressures this season, which is 26.1% of the teams’. He even had 13 of the Titans quick pressures, which is the most among NFL Defensive Tackles. His 45.1% double team rate is the highest of his career since 2022, and has helped free up 1 on 1 matchups for other pass rushers. His absence is a massive blow to their rush plan.
T’Vondre Sweat still poses some risk with his massive power profile responsible for a 7.7% pressure rate, a strong figure for a Nose Tackle, but the outside rushers Oladejo and Key have disappointed. The Titans could shift to a more blitz heavy approach with Simmons and Sneed out, but it would be very different from their Defense thus far.
The Titans do have some good coverage players, namely Linebacker Cedric Gray, nickel corner Roger McCreary, and Free Safety Safety Xavier Woods. Expect the Colts to instead target the boundaries with Darrell Baker Jr. and Jalyn Armour-Davis struggling. If the Colts want to target the middle zones, linebacker Cody Barton is an interesting case of good ball skills (team high 2 INTs) but struggles to get into position as he has been targeted in the flats and on crossing routes by quicker weapons. Amani Hooker could be targeted as well, as he has struggled with tackling in space.
Rushing Defense
- Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed: 139.6 (29th) | 90.3 (6th)
- Rushing Yards Per Carry Allowed: 4.5 (Tied 21st) | 4.2 (Tied 15th)
- Stacked Boxes Rate: 25.1% (12th) | 12% (31st)
- Yards Before Contact Per Carry Allowed: 1.45 (23rd) | 1.46 (24th)
- Yards After Contact Per Carry Allowed: 3.17 (Tied 18th) | 2.77 (Tied 5th)
- Stuffed Rate: 15.8% (21st) | 16.7% (Tied 15th)
- Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Carry Allowed: +1.14 (30th) | -0.19 (4th)
- EPA/Run Allowed: +0.02 (25th) | -0.04 (Tied 16th)
The Titans are an aggressive Defense not in blitzing, but in stacked boxes. They want to have an extra man in the box but drop 7 in coverage, just in case of the run. But despite this approach, the Titans can get overwhelmed in the run game, scoring in the bottom 10 in Yards Over Expected, EPA/run, and Yards before Contact per Carry. Most egregiously, they have surrendered 12 Touchdowns on the ground (10 TDs to Running Backs), the most in the NFL.
The Titans have face the 4th highest run rate in the NFL, as opposing offenses are in more run heavy game scripts after getting early leads on them. What is unique about the Titans Run Defense, is that they are one of the few teams that is much better at defending outside runs versus inside runs. They have surrendered 5.4 Yards per Carry inside but just 4.7 outside of the Tackles against running backs. There have been issues in gap integrity and tackling downhill for the Titans, which can create big plays for backs.
Expect a good workload for Jonathan Taylor and the Colts backs.
Can the Colts Avoid the Trap?
Statistically this Week 8 Divisional battle seems to be a decisive Colts victory. Out of 38 Performance based Stats, the Colts have the advantage in 36, with the Titans only advantages being in Yard Before Contact Allowed (by .01) and Yards After the Catch. The Titans are 14.5 point underdogs, which is the most the Colts have been favored in a game since 2014. In all but one of their losses, they have been beaten by at minimum two scores (in the season opener they lost by 8 points to the Broncos).
And yet… divisional games can be weird. These teams have a lot of familiarity with each other, and that can often create surprisingly close games. The Colts Week 3 41-20 victory over the Titans was the first multiple score victory between the Colts and Titans since the 2021 Week 3 Titans 25-16 victory over the Colts.
Despite all the injuries, the mid-season coaching change, the veteran player requesting release, the key injuries… the Titans could surprise the Colts and make it a closer game than the 14.5 point line indicates. Cam Ward had his best game as a pro versus the Patriots Defense last week, throwing for a career high 73.5% completion percentage, 255 yards (2nd highest in his career), a Touchdown, and a pick. The Titans were keeping pace with the Patriots for most of the first half, going up 13-10 off of Joey Slye’s 2nd 49-50 yard field goal with less than 2 minutes left in the half.
That ended up being the final score for the Titans on the day as the Patriots rattled off 3 consecutive TDs in the last 31 minutes of play. Still, if Ward cuts down on his fumbling issue, the Titans make that a much closer game.
The Colts should win the game handedly, but don’t rule out the Titans keeping it close at points in the game. If Ward continues to show the flashes of what made him the 1st overall pick, we could have a shootout on our hands against the Colts injured secondary.
