Of all the ways I thought this game would go, Alabama pulling a Missouri and going with the “run the ball and control the clock” offense was not one that I envisioned happening.
The Tide had not run the ball well up to that point, and yes, missing Jam Miller at the beginning of the season certainly was a factor in that. But Bama has a Heisman-level quarterback and a fleet of NFL receivers and that’s how they had been succeeding for the first half of their season.
However, with Mizzou’s pass rush spinning
the Tide offensive linemen into hell and driving Ty Simpson into the ground, Bama OC Ryan Grubb simply relied on his blue chip offensive lineman to provide enough push to effectively run the ball and give Mizzou a taste of its own medicine. The 18-play, 9-minute drive in the 3rd quarter was the point where I first thought “oh man, Mizzou might be in trouble here”.
And yes, you can complain about “abandoning the run game”, although the percentage of plays Hardy and Roberts were running on were only a little bit lower than their games against kansas and South Carolina (and right on track for percentages until Mizzou had to go pass wonky in the 4th). But, if that’s really the argument you want to work with, you must also acknowledge that an offense playing left handed STILL HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WIN THE GAME. Against Alabama.
It’s frustrating to lose but if every problem is self inflicted, wow, what an easy problem to fix!
The season is long and this loss does not define the season. Mizzou won’t be left out of the Playoff because they lost to Alabama, but they will be left out of the Playoff if they lose to Auburn and Vanderbilt or Oklahoma or Mississippi State.
As long as one loss doesn’t bleed into several other losses this game will be an annoyance in a season of positives. Keep that in mind!
Here’s the advanced box score:
Alabama covered up a lot of inefficiencies by simply flooding the system with numbers, running a bunch of plays and staying on the field because – while they stunk on 1st and 2nd down – their Heisman-caliber quarterback could effectively convert 3rd downs and overcome any long downs that they were put in. The total yardage numbers are nearly identical, but Mizzou was better on a per-play basis and finished drives at a much higher point average. The issue, of course, is that Alabama generated 8 scoring opportunities compared to Mizzou’s 4. And the 3rd-downs. My goodness the 3rd down discrepancy is stark.
When Missouri Has the Ball
I know everyone was circling the “12 carries/52 yards” for Ahmad Hardy in this game. And, yes that looks bad. But I didn’t really have an issue with the play calling until the second-to-last drive of the 4th quarter, when Mizzou took over after a missed Alabama field goal, trailing by 3 points with 9:07 left in the game. I figured that was the perfect script to unleash Hardy and work a steam-roll-powered kill shot to drain the clock and win with time expiring. Instead, they went sack/1-yard completion/6-yard completion/3-yard fake punt. Other that that noticeable misfire, I thought Moore did a good job of attempting balance to keep Alabama from selling out against the run. I think we all would have preferred Missouri to win or lose with Hardy being the bell cow but, from a percentage standpoint, Hardy (and Roberts) were being utilized at very near the same percentage of total plays as has been typical for Mizzou and against power opponents. The issue is that they ran 30 fewer plays than we’re used to seeing.
Run The Dang Ball
Goal: 41% success rate on the ground.
Actual: 50% success rate on the ground.
Winner: Missouri
Play Ball Control
Goal: Minimum of 54% 3rd-down conversion rate.
Actual: 9% 3rd-down conversion rate.
Winner: Alabama
Finish your dang drives
Goal: At least 7 scoring opportunities created and at least 5 points per scoring opportunity (35 points)
Actual: 4 scoring opportunities created, 6 points per scoring opportunity (24 points)
Winner: Alabama
When Alabama Has The Ball
Alabama was held to:
- Lowest total passing yards of the year
- Lowest passing success rate of the year
- 2nd-lowest rushing success rate of the year
- Lowest yard per scoring-opportunity of the year
It was so bad that they gambled on a running back returning from injury to carry the rock more than they had ever had in a single game to negate a terrorizing pass rush. It was a huge gamble but it worked. Barely.
HAVOC
Goal: At least 30% havoc rate levels
Actual: 14.4% havoc
Winner: Alabama
Turn them over!
Goal: At least +1 in turnover margin
Actual: +1 in turnover margin
Winner: Missouri
The Little Things
Missouri benefitted from higher turnover luck, as all three fumbles either ended up in their possession or out of bounds. Alabama benefitted from a higher average starting field position and generating more scoring opportunities. Margins is how you win close games and Alabama’s were exactly what they needed.
On the demerit front, both teams were called for five penalties, but Bama’s were more benign than what Mizzou was doing. Other than that, the referees were allowing both side to just do their thing with little interference.
…yes, I know we’re all upset about not enough video evidence to overturn the 4th-down run that was called short. I am too. I guess you can blame the refs on that. Or, conversely, don’t have your lead blocker come out of his stance late. Or, don’t run that play to the short side of the field. Or, just let your full offense go out there and try to get it. Lots of things could go differently there.
Extra Points
Success rate by quarter were close overall but the play discrepancy meant that Mizzou’s overall success rate was quite a bit higher than Bama’s. But, as you’ll see in the yards per quarter chart, the quantity outweighed the quality in this game.
Back to the “Mizzou abandoned the run” complaint. This play balance is not that dissimilar from the play call breakdown of the kansas and South Carolina games. The execution on 3rd-down is alarmingly gnarly but, otherwise, Moore has so far attempted balance against power teams and that was reflected here as well. Also, before you bring it up, four runs on the day were pass plays that resulted in Beau Pribula scrambling, so I guess if you want to revise the number by play-call rather than play-result, it was 22 runs called versus 33 passes called.
This is the chart that is a good representation of what Alabama did to Mizzou: put ‘em on ice. 9 plays in the 1st quarter is rough, but it was the 7 plays in the 3rd quarter compared to the 21 that Bama ran that let the Tide defense rest, create some unsettlement in the atmosphere, and help them shorten the game.
Also, 103 of the 153 net passing yards for Missouri came in the 4th quarter.
Here’s the other damning chart for this game. 13 1st-downs. Nearly half of what Mizzou averaged per game heading into this matchup. The Tigers weren’t given many chances to move the ball but, when they did, they couldn’t keep their drives going. Yuck.
Conclusion
The Alabama game was a tough test in a seven-week endurance race of tough tests. This week kicks off a two-week trip to Auburn and Vanderbilt, two teams that can absolutely take you down. Then it’s tough tests against dark horse SEC elite Texas A&M and a feisty Mississippi State team that can exploit Mizzou’s weaknesses to disastrous effect.
It doesn’t get easier but this loss can just be an annoyance if Mizzou performs at the level that we think they can, and either wins out or loses just one more. Two more losses gets you into “maybe in, potentially out” territory of Playoff talk, and anything more than that is a disqualifier. One loss does not undo all the great things we’ve seen so far, but if no lessons are learned or effectiveness dwindles, then this loss will be pointed to as the “beginning of the end” of the high hopes of 2025.
