It’s been no secret that through the first seven games of the season, Matthew Stafford has been playing at an elite level. Stafford is inside the top-10 in many advanced metrics including passer rating
and EPA per dropback. The Rams quarterback is also second in PFF passing grade behind only Sam Darnold. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes and Big Time Throws while only throwing two interceptions.
In fact, with three touchdown passes against the New Orleans Saints, Stafford can become the fifth player in NFL history with at least 20 touchdowns and three-or-fewer interceptions in first 8 games of season. He would join Tom Brady in 2007 and 2015, Patrick Mahomes in 2020, Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and 2020, and YA Tittle in 1963. All of those players except Brady in 2015 and Mahomes in 2020 won MVP. Brady lost it to Cam Newton and Mahomes lost it to Rodgers who is also on this list. Mahomes in 2020 and Brady in 2015.
Stafford is currently in the top four of MVP odds, behind Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Drake Maye. However, if voters were able to cast midseason votes, Stafford would likely come second or third behind Mahomes and Maye.
While the MVP conversation will get sorted as the season plays out, it’s hard to not also think of what this season is doing for Stafford’s legacy. Even with a Super Bowl, Stafford is seen as a borderline Hall of Fame player. He’s certainly not a guaranteed first-ballot player and there will be a lot of discussion about his career when all is said and done.
However, this season has certainly helped his overall case. At 37 years old, Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career. Earlier this season, Stafford passed Dan Marino in all-time passing yards and Matt Ryan in all-time touchdowns to move to ninth in both categories. He also moved into the top-5 in fourth quarter comebacks. This was a recent discussion on The Rich Eisen show and Eisen said how this season is the one that puts Matthew Stafford in the Hall of Fame. Said Eisen,
“This is the season that’s putting Matthew Stafford in the Hall of Fame. After this season, there should not be a single naysayer on the planet in regards to his candidacy for enshrinement. In the broadcast meeting with Davante Adams that we had, Kurt asked him, ‘I have seven kids, I will always say I don’t have a favorite, but you know some days I do. Who’s the best quarterback you’ve ever played with?’ And so Davante Adams said, ‘That’s ridiculous. I will just tell you this. Rodgers is the best thrower of the football. Stafford is the best manipulator of the defense.’ He’s number nine in terms of passing all time and touchdowns all time. He’s moving up the charts into some rarefied air. This is the season in which Matthew Stafford makes the Hall of Fame.”
A second Super Bowl would certainly lock Stafford in as a Hall of Fame quarterback. The only quarterback with two Super Bowl wins and not in the Hall of Fame are Jim Plunkett and then Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Again, at age 37, Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career. If the Rams were to win 10 games and take the NFC West, it would be Stafford’s third division title and fourth playoff appearance in five seasons. It would also be his fourth 10-win season with the Rams.
Before Stafford arrived in Los Angeles, one of the biggest knocks on Stafford was that he didn’t have the wins. In five seasons with the Rams, Stafford has proven that the disfunction in Detroit for the first 12 years of his career held him back. In a better organization that consistently surrounded him with better overall talent, Stafford has maximized that. Since 2021, Stafford leads all quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts in playoff EPA per play. He’s been at his best when it’s mattered most for the Rams. His only playoff losses have been on the road.
The Hall of Fame discussion when it comes to the second tier of quarterbacks in this era is going to be an interesting one. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger are the locks. That next tier of Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Phillip Rivers is where it gets cloudy as they all have similar resumes.
With 10 wins this year, Stafford will match Rivers in that category and already has the same number of playoff wins. Stafford has more playoff wins than Ryan. Additionally, Ryan’s last season came at 37 while Stafford is playing at a high level. The real separator here is the Super Bowl win. Over the past five years, Stafford has matched Rivers’ and Ryan’s team accomplishments and also has the Super Bowl to differentiate himself.
Coming into the season, there were a lot of questions regarding Stafford’s back and the Rams quarterback has gone on to have a career season. In The Ringer’s Power Rankings for Week 9, Diante Lee wrote, “I hope that Matthew Stafford spent the whole week in an Ammortal chamber.” Truer words have never been spoken. Some of Stafford’s best football over the past two years have come after the month of October. Another strong finish and Stafford may find his way into Canton.
