Following the 2024 season, the Astros were unwilling to meet Alex Bregman’s price tag. Instead, they settled for a more modest option, signing Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million contract.
Bregman has slashed .264/.353/.433 while accumulating 7.5 bWAR since leaving Houston, while Walker has slashed .235/.302/.430 with 2.3 bWAR in two seasons with the Astros.
Last winter, the Astros again decided not to pay the market price for high-end starters like Dylan Cease or Framber Valdez. Instead,
they gambled on Tatsuya Imai, signing him to a three-year, $54 million contract with two player options.
Cease has authored a Cy Young-caliber season in Toronto with a 2.42 ERA in 23 starts, while Valdez, despite posting just a 99 ERA+, has made every start in the Detroit Tigers’ rotation and completed at least six innings in 14 of 25 starts. Imai, meanwhile, has been banished to the back of the Astros’ bullpen after posting a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts. He failed to complete the first inning in three starts and the third inning in two others.
The Astros have had a clear philosophy in the 15 years Jim Crane has owned the team: They have not given a free agent contract or extension longer than five seasons.
It is a philosophy rooted in prudence. The team doesn’t want to be stuck paying high-end salaries to players in their late 30s. Rarely do those deals age well, but avoiding them altogether has kept the Astros from adding a class of player that can significantly raise a team’s ceiling.
The Astros have spent money in free agency despite this edict, but they’ve handed out shorter-term, lucrative contracts to players a tier or two below who, for the most part, have badly underperformed.
The team has given out a free agent contract of at least $50 million in each of the past four offseasons. Walker and Imai have been disappointing thus far. Jose Abreu’s three-year, $58.5 million contract was an abject disaster.
After signing a five-year, $95 million contract in 2024, Josh Hader has pitched like one of the sport’s best relievers over the last two seasons after a disappointing first year with the Astros. However, injuries ended his 2025 season early, and he missed the first two months of 2026.
Still, as good as he is, Hader doesn’t have the impact a high-level starting pitcher or everyday player can have, but the Astros refuse to buy into that market.
The Astros didn’t need to go out and buy All-Stars when they were drafting and developing their own, but that well has dried up in recent years, and no one in the upper levels of their minor league system appears to be headed on a trajectory to have that sort of impact.
The Astros could still win the American League West this season, but it’s hard to imagine this group advancing far past that. Crane will likely be in the market for a new general manager whenever this campaign ends, but in order for the Astros to get back to the World Series, his philosophy must change.
