One of the biggest talking points surrounding the New England Patriots last season was the supposedly easy schedule they played on their way to a division title, playoff berth, and ultimately the Super Bowl. While some of it was naturally hyperbole, there was some truth to the fact that the team benefitted from its fourth-place schedule and a generally weak year in the AFC.
This season was supposed to be different. Entering 2026, the team was set to go up against an above-average slate of opponents.
Based on win-loss totals from a year ago, their scheduled ranked as the sixth-hardest; based on projected win totals, they ranked 10th.
Turns out, their schedule might be a lot easier than that if we use the first four weeks of the season as an indication. Using traditional win-loss rate, only three other clubs have it easier down the stretch than the current 2-2 team.
Even if we use a more complex methodology — Pro Football Focus’ point spread rating — we can see that New England’s schedule from here on out becomes a lot more manageable.
That does not mean the Patriots’ remaining 13 games won’t have their pitfalls and potential for problems. Whether it is teams getting healthier at key positions (i.e. Chicago Bears) or hitting their stride at the right time (i.e. Green Bay Packers), or challenging circumstances due to scheduling (i.e. two Thursday night games) or location (i.e. Detroit Lions in Germany), anything can happen even if the projection works in New England’s favor at the moment.
Still, what this shows more than anything is that the Patriots have a chance to build some momentum after a challenging four-game stretch to open the season. Given that they are 2-2 and currently inside the AFC playoff picture, they have the potential to keep making some noise.
It starts with internal improvement both performance- and health-wise, but the schedule certainly could help with that as well. Again.
