Over the last three seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled to run the ball. Despite the Chiefs constantly facing light boxes from opposing defenses, the offense has struggled to punish them with the rushing attack.
There are multiple reasons why the run game has fallen off over the past few years.
- The offensive line hasn’t been consistently healthy or a strength for the Chiefs. The interior offensive line has always been great, but the revolving tackles have hurt the run game.
- The skill-position group, particularly at tight end, has not been impactful in run blocking. The Chiefs have lacked a blocking tight end who can play inline. Noah Gray and Travis Kelce have to be hidden in the run game, which limits the types of runs the Chiefs can call.
- Scheme. The Chiefs like to use run-pass options as much as anyone in the NFL. While the threat of the pass does stretch the field horizontally, RPOs can also hurt your run game. The offensive line can’t block vertically since the quarterback can throw the ball. RPOs are also called from the shotgun, which limits certain run-blocking angles.
Despite these reasons, I would argue that the biggest reason the run game has fallen off is the lack of running back talent. Kansas City hasn’t seen adequate running back play over the last three
seasons.
After the 2022 season, it seemed like Isiah Pacheco was the future at running back after a great rookie campaign. Unfortunately, Pacheco never quite returned to the level he played at as a rookie. His 2023 campaign was up and down, but he still had good moments throughout the season.
What seemed to set Pacheco back was the leg injury he suffered early in 2024. Pacheco was limited to seven games that season. He had only 310 rushing yards and one touchdown on 83 carries. Pacheco looked nowhere near as explosive as he did prior to his injury. Pacheco had always been an up-and-down player because of his lack of vision, but his ability to generate explosive runs made it worth handing him the ball.
After the injury, that ability never came back. Only one of Pacheco’s runs over the last two years lasted 20 or more yards. During the 2023 season, Pacheco generated six runs of over 20 yards.
With Pacheco not an effective option, the Chiefs have turned to Kareem Hunt as the lead back over the past two seasons. Hunt was good at certain things: he was one of the best short-yardage backs in the NFL. Hunt’s vision and strength allowed the Chiefs to make short yardage almost automatic, which lifted the floor on an offense that couldn’t generate explosive plays. However, Hunt wasn’t very effective outside of those scenarios. Over the last two seasons, Hunt finished with two 20+ yard runs.
Teams have dared the Chiefs to run the ball over the last three seasons with light boxes. In theory, with fewer bodies in the box, there should be more room for explosive runs, but the Chiefs’ running backs have been incapable of using that space.
Because the backs couldn’t take what was given to them, it made every other aspect of their offense more difficult. The organization had had enough of that problem this offseason. The front office addressed the running back position by signing Kenneth Walker in free agency.
Walker was brought in to solve the lack of explosive runs. Last season, Walker was fourth in the NFL in 20+ yard runs with 10.
Walker’s speed and explosiveness are elements the offense just hasn’t had since Hunt was drafted. Walker doesn’t need a runway to build up speed. He’s explosive from the second he has the ball. He can slide past defenders angling for him, highlighting his ability to change pace.
Another exciting element of the Walker signing is that this is the best offensive line he’s ever played with
The Seattle Seahawks’ offensive line was a weakness until this past year, and even then, they were closer to average. When the Chiefs’ offensive line is healthy, it’s easily a top-5 unit. There could be even more opportunities for Walker to get into space and create big plays.
There’s no doubt that Walker’s ability to generate explosive runs will raise the floor of the run game.
The question is, can the Chiefs build an elite run game with Walker at running back?
There’s reason to believe he could be. Walker will have the lightest boxes he’s ever had playing with Patrick Mahomes. Teams will always play two-high safeties against the Chiefs. There won’t be traffic in the box. The offensive line can create movement even without having extra tight ends or blocking personnel on the field. There’s a good chance the Chiefs could get more out of Walker than Seattle did.
However, there is a chance that Walker’s presence won’t create an elite run game. While Walker’s best plays are electric, he does play with inconsistency. His vision can be up and down. He will bounce runs unnecessarily, which can lead to more negative plays. As flawed as Hunt was as the team’s lead back, he rarely had negative runs. There is more variance in Walker’s game.
Another concern is that Walker hasn’t been a heavy-usage player in his career. His career high for carries in a season is 228. The other three years were 215, 221, and 153 (he played 11 games). The Chiefs did address running back depth with Emmett Johnson and Emari Demercado, but the offense should still expect more than 220 carries from Walker next year. Can he hold up?
I also have some questions about the scheme fit. Walker can run from the shotgun, but he prefers under-center runs, where he can read the backside and make one vertical cut. There is a reasonable fear about putting him in shotgun; his worst tendencies, to bounce runs and not follow blocks, are baited in shotgun.
Overall, I’m very optimistic about the Walker signing. It would be hard for the Chiefs’ run game to get worse, and having a competent running back will change the offense. The question is about the degree to which Walker changes the offense.
With the Chiefs not addressing a pass catcher and Mahomes coming off an injury, there’s a heavy load on Walker and the offensive line to deliver. For the Chiefs to have a Super Bowl ceiling, Walker needs to be a transformational piece. He has the potential to do that, but he’ll need to deliver.
