The Cleveland Guardians have made it to the American League Division series – how can they use this position to break the longest World Series championship drought in the sport?
The Guardians enter MLB’s playoffs as an underdog, as usual. They spent most of the season struggling to stay over .500, and then turned it on from the end of the August through September for the third year in a row. Their flaws are easy to see: they lack a 20-home run hitter (Jo Adell hit 23 this season but most of those
were with the Angels), they are missing a strong third starter, and the loss of Emmanuel Clase due to a gambling scandal has winnowed the depth of their bullpen. With that said, the Guardians have some important assets baseball fans shouldn’t overlook when considering potential contenders for baseball’s biggest prize. Let’s take a look at some things that will likely have to happen for the Guardians to end their 78-year title drought:
Playoff Experience Buoys the Team:
This is now Stephen Vogt’s third time managing a playoff team. Growing edge mistakes he has made in the past – failing to intentionally walk an en fuego Giancarlo Stanton, going one to many times to the same relievers in a short series, and putting the worst defender you have ever seen in the field while facing Tarik Skubal – should be lessons learned for one of the best managers in the game. Additionally, Carl Willis’s steady hand will guide a playoff pitching staff for the umpteenth time.
On the field, World Series winners Austin Hedges and Nathaniel Lowe will provide needed voices of experience, and, because of the playoff runs of the past two years, Jose Ramirez’s vast amount of playoff experience is not the only source of familiarity with baseball’s biggest stage on the team. David Fry, Chase DeLauter, Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martinez, and almost the entire pitching staff have postseason memories to draw upon to anchor them for the current run. Vogt has the pieces in place to position his guys to last.
Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Daniel Espino/Joey Cantillo Dominate:
The success or failure of the Guardians in these playoffs will ride on the top of their rotation asserting their abilities on their opponents. Williams has a 2.85 xFIP this season, Messick has a 2.56 ERA, and Espino (2.69 xFIP) and Cantillo (3.62 ERA) have allowed a total of three runs in their three appearances together as opener and bulk guy. All four pitchers are capable of missing a lot of bats, something that is crucial for playoff success.
Rest Gives Jose Ramirez’s Hand a Chance to Regain Some Strength:
The Guardians only winning 85 games this season may seem like a disappointment coming off of two-straight division-title-winning years, but it stands as an amazing accomplishment because the Guardians’ perennial MVP-candidate only managed a 92 wRC+ and a .235/.320/.368 slashline, while accumulating only 2.2 fWAR (his lowest of any season since 2015). The lower numbers seem almost entirely attributable to Ramirez getting hamate surgery in June and trying to get his hand/wrist strength back while playing major league baseball games instead of receiving extended rest. Well, counting Sunday, Jose will now get a full week’s worth of rest. Can that enable his hand to regain enough strength to make him something closer to his career norms? His contact rates and plate discipline numbers have remained strong, so if he can find some of his missing power with the rest he gets this coming week… watch out, American League.
Tanner Bibee and Foster Griffin Help in Middle Innings:
The back-end of the Guardians’ rotation has not been great, however, both Tanner Bibee and Foster Griffin are talented enough pitchers to be dangerous in two-inning stints if needed in the middle of a game. After a bad start against the Mets (about which the Athletic’s Zack Meisel recently revealed that the Mets were able to hear his pitches on Lowe’s PitchCom device at first base), Griffin has had a 3.08 FIP with the Guardians. He’s able to get a groundball when needed, which can be immensely helpful in a mid-game situation. Meanwhile, Bibee is far too prone to the longball and unable to reliably get whiffs when needed, but, as demonstrated on Saturday, he is able to pull himself together to get outs when needed. If placed mid-game and told to let loose and not worry about going through a lineup more than once (at the most), he’s a pitcher with the playoff experience and moxie to make a huge impact.
The Volatility of Hunter Gaddis Swings Back to the Guardians’ Favor:
The Guardians should feel good about Cade Smith (more on him later) and Erik Sabrowski at the end of games, but Hunter Gaddis has been shaky down the stretch. In Gaddis’s last six innings, he has an FIP over 7. He is giving up too much contact and it’s LOUD contact. However, in Gaddis’s prior 15 innings, he had a 1.17 ERA and a 1.99 FIP. Was Gaddis tiring down the stretch? Can a week off spent in the warm embrace of Carl Willis and the restorative cocoon of talking through his pitch mix with Patrick Bailey and Austin Hedges get him back to the 9.39/2.93 K/BB/9 and near 50% groundball rate he flashed in his recent hot stretch? Gaddis has had huge splits in FIP this season, as well, with a 2.74 FIP vs. RHP and a 5.74 FIP vs. LHP. Leveraging Gaddis’s appearance in a game to ensure he faces two right-handed batters, if possible, will be key for Vogt to use him effectively.
The Guardians really have to hope there is an answer for Gaddis’s struggles, or that could prove their fatal flaw. It is possible that Colin Holderman, who has been treating a wrist injury, may get healthy enough to make the playoff roster this week, and that would be a huge boon if he can be something like the 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP he put up in the Guardians’ pen this season, and if Vogt is willing to let Holderman be the primary 7th inning guy instead of Gaddis.
Chase DeLauter and Steven Kwan Perform Like Top 20 Hitters in MLB:
It is virtually impossible to win a World Series without a top 20 hitter in MLB performing as such. The Guardians’ Chase DeLauter is 19th in MLB with a 131 wRC+. DeLauter is more than capable of getting hot and carrying a lineup in a short series, or two. As mentioned before in this article, Jose Ramirez is, of course, still capable of putting up top 20-hitter numbers IF that wrist/hand manages to recover in a significant fashion during this period of rest. However, in looking at potential hitting heroes, it’s important not to forget about what Steven Kwan has done since the All-Star break; few midseason turnaround compare to Kwan’s pre-All-Star break slashline of .225/.332/.282 becoming a .353/.443/.438 slashline to end the season. Kwan’s 155 wRC+ after the all-star break is the eighth best performance among all qualified MLB hitters. Kwan has also put up a very good 129 wRC+ in 92 playoff plate appearances for his career. Kwan and DeLauter at the top of the Guardians’ lineup should be a difficult assignment for any playoff opponents.
I would be remiss if I left this section about “best hitters” on the Guardians without mentioning Angel Martinez’s run to end the season. Since returning from a broken foot, after the MLB trade deadline, Martinez put up a 151 wRC+. Will he see a single strike from the best pitchers in MLB during the playoffs due to his first percentile chase rate? I don’t know. Will he be able to resist chasing those pitches? I really don’t know. But, he has been a wildly valuable hitter under the radar to everyone except Cleveland fans.
Patrick Bailey and Brayan Rocchio Display that Clutch is Real:
I’m not saying that “being clutch” is real… but I am saying that if it IS real, Patrick Bailey and Brayan Rocchio are probably clutch. Rocchio has a career 131 wRC+ and Bailey a career 114 wRC+ in high leverage situations. Neither have been quite an average hitter this season (or even close to average for their careers), yet both provide excellent defensive value at the most important positions on the field (shortstop and catcher, respectively) and have consistently found a way to come through with the bat when it really matters. Shoutout, also, to Austin Hedges for somehow being a 100 wRC+ hitter this season, which may come in crucial at some point this playoffs, as well.
Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell Perform:
The Guardians added reliever Craig Yoho, starter Foster Griffin, and hitters Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell to shore up their roster at this year’s MLB trade deadline. Yoho may or may not make the playoff roster, and Griffin can potentially help in middle relief or as the fourth starter in a potential ALCS, but it is Lowe and Adell who have the greatest chance to impact the Guardians’ playoff run of this bunch. Lowe has been unlucky at the plate since coming to the Guardians (.280 wOBA compared to .307 xwOBA), but can he still be the hitter who had a 123 wRC+ and a .351 xwOBA for the Reds prior to the trade deadline? If he can, that will immensely strengthen the Guardians’ lineup. Adell has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching this year (67 wRC+) BUT he has an insane 168 wRC+ against lefties. Teams love to try to neutralize the Guardians with southpaws; Adell and past-postseason hero David Fry are here to try to make sure that’s not an easy task.
Travis Bazzana Gets Hot:
It’s not unusual for rookie hitters to be hot and cold but Bazzana demonstrated this tendency in a fairly stark fashion this season. For example, from May 1st to June 3rd, Bazzana put up a 138 wRC+ and from June 4th-July 17th he had an 81 wRC+. From July 18th-August 2nd, Bazzana put up a 137 wRC+, and from August 3rd-August 31st he had a 45 wRC+. From September 1st-September 18th, Bazzana had a 244 wRC+ and from September 19th through the final game, Bazzana had a 35 wRC+. Bottom line, if former 1.1 pick Bazzana is on a heater, he can be one of those top 20 MLB hitters for this team and carry them through a playoff series or two.
Cade Smith Pitches Like the Best Reliever in MLB:
Smith’s dominance is well-known in the game. He has a 1.95 ERA and a 13/2.8 K/BB/9. I am almost 100% confident he is not betting on the results of his pitches. Vogt has repeatedly shown the willingness to let him pitch two innings to close out a game and may very well allow that multiple times in a short series. If Smith performs at the level to which he is capable, he and Erik Sabrowski have the potential to make at least three games each series 6-inning affairs.
There are never any sure things when it comes to the playoffs in MLB. We can say for certainty that not every of the plausible scenarios listed above will come into play for the Guardians, as much as I might wish they would. However, this list of ten ways that would make a World Series title-runs for Cleveland demonstrates that this team has a number of potential ways to beat oppponents that should not be underestimated. With the #2 seed in hand and a bye through the wildcard, the Guardians would also have homefield advantage should they advance to the ALCS if either the Yankees or Red Sox manage to beat the Tampa Bay Rays. Time to watch and see if these Guardians can continue another legendary September run into late October.
Quick Glossary:
100 wRC+ is league average offensive production, wOBA and xwOBA look are similar metrics with solid offensive production being .320 woBA or below, and xwOBA looking at expected results based on quality of contact.
FIP, xFIP and xERA look at ERA numbers without the influence of fielding differences and with the factors of quality of contact allowed.
