Well, the Luke Fickell-fueled revival is not going well in Madison. After going 7-6 and 5-7 since taking over the Wisconsin Badgers, Fickell may not last much longer, especially since even matching last year’s
win total looks like a stretch right now. The offensive revolution has not materialized at all, and the elite run defense is not enough to save the rest of the team.
For the Michigan Wolverines, the expectation is to look like a program moving in the opposite direction. While the new offense in Ann Arbor has yet to fully materialize as well, this is a great chance to show which team actually has something to believe in. Sherrone Moore returns to the sidelines and Michigan is a big favorite – phase two of the 2025 season begins with a stretch of stumble-able but winnable games, starting Saturday.
Wisconsin (2-2, 0-1) at No. 20 Michigan (3-1, 1-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, Oct. 4, noon ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: FOX
After six straight years of being interdivision “rivals” (which fittingly went 3-3), these two teams have not seen each other since 2021. That contest also featured a ranked Michigan looking to prove its legitimacy, which it did emphatically; while the score was just 13-10 at half, the Wolverines took over from there, winning 38-17 in Madison. Cornelius Johnson brought in a pair of touchdowns that day, with David Ojabo and Dax Hill forcing turnovers on consecutive Wisconsin drives.
Offense: The Bryce is Right
Maybe it feels like every game is about Bryce Underwood, but this one feels especially so given his opportunity expansion with Moore missing from the sidelines. With injuries (safety Preston Zachman) and poor starts (corner Ricardo Hallman, amongst others) across the secondary, this is the chance to let the true freshman off the leash despite the Badgers’ overall strong defense:
That defensive ranking is largely bolstered by the nation’s best run defense in terms of yards per game (50.0). While both Miami OH and Middle Tennessee were held to laughably low totals, even Alabama (3.27 YPC) and Maryland (2.65 YPC) were relatively held in check. How did the latter two games end in losses, then? The Badgers are allowed 10.1 YPA in those contests with 6 passing touchdowns to zero interceptions.
This does not mean going full air raid (lol), but it does mean that leaning on the pass could actually be a safer approach than expecting to win on the ground. The Michigan pass catchers still leave much to be desired, but Underwood is good enough to be the difference maker in most games, and against this defense that is absolutely the case.
When the Wolverines do run the ball, it will be interesting to see how productive Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall can be. It feels like the coaching staff is pushing the right buttons along the offensive line — both in personnel and run scheme — but this will be a difficult test against a stacked Wisconsin front. Both backs have electric talent, but Haynes in particular might be the x-factor. Expect some frustrating downs as Michigan leans into stretch plays, though it just takes one long run to validate this approach.
Defense: Yuck
The Wisconsin offense is not good. Ranked 89th in SP+, the longtime strength of the program up front is really struggling. The Badgers have some quality individual offensive linemen, but as a whole the unit has been very poor. Alabama consistently found ways to cause tons of pressure, and this is a recipe Michigan should be looking to replicate. This is a clear strength-on-weakness battle that could be enough to tank any sort of threat from the visitors.
What does not help the front five is the lack of playmaking from the skill positions. Running backs Dilin Jones and Darrion Dupree have a combined 1 rushing touchdown on the year, and none of the wide receivers are anything special (again, RIP air raid). In true Wisconsin fashion, the biggest pass-catching threat is tight end Lance Mason, who has 14 grabs for 2 scores this season. The former FCS All-American is a solid player, but not enough to save this passing game.
Fickell went into the season with Maryland transfer Billy Edwards Jr. at quarterback, but his health is a real question. Edwards offers decent mobility — never forget his 4 carries for 3 yards and 3 touchdowns against Michigan in 2023 — but is not an elite passer. Backup Danny O’Neil is likely to play the main role this weekend, and he is worse both throwing the ball and using his legs.
O’Neil is completing 70.5% of his passes, but has 5 touchdowns to 5 interceptions and has taken 10 sacks in his last two games. Wink Martindale continues to fail at tinkering with his defense, but against a mediocre quarterback and a struggling offensive line, this sets up to be a long afternoon for the visitors. I really cannot see the Badgers finding the end zone multiple times, though maybe some completely unnecessary blitz will hand them a gift.
Heavyweights no longer
When the Big Ten introduced the concept of crossover matchups upon expanding to nine conference games in 2016, the Michigan-Wisconsin battle looked like the conference’s best. Both teams sat in the top 10 in 2016, while the next three games were also ranked vs. ranked contests. But after the Wolverines rebounded from the 2020 disaster, the Badgers have done nothing but regress since then. Now the programs meet again with a chasm growing wider between them.
Saturday’s three-score spread is completely warranted. There is no easy way for Wisconsin to move the ball in this game, even if Edwards is able to play some snaps. The Badgers will have some down-to-down wins against the Michigan run game, but one Haynes home run could be enough to put this out of reach. There is no other unit-on-unit matchup that looks close to even, and that does give the home team some margin for error.
Once again, that means the most exciting thing to watch will be the deployment of Underwood. This is surely not Moore’s preference, but after seeing Biff Poggi’s willingness to use the superstar during his absence, I am not sure the head coach has a choice. Luckily for him, the matchup suggests this is the correct play anyway, perhaps offering a gentle way to nudge him into the right decision.
