Having a team far back in the standings as the Chiefs begin training camp is a bummer, and yet a familiar story for Royals fans. But the trade deadline can offer a modicum of hope, as bad teams can trade off whatever little talent they have for prospects for the future. One only needs to look at the division-leading White Sox to see an example of a bad team that rebuilt itself into a compteitive ballclub.
The Royals have several different paths they could take leading up to Monday’s trade deadline,
but the early reporting from mainstream outlets indicates they may take a conservative route. There is a good case the team should retool and look to move veteran pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, even though those pitchers are under club control next year.
But don’t count on the Royals trading them, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Unless Kansas City’s tack changes, it will hold onto Wacha and fellow starter Seth Lugo. Outfielder Lane Thomas will get moved to a contender. The Royals will seek a John Schreiber landing spot. Anything else is a matter of their appetite to yield team control. Because if they do, Daniel Lynch IV would join the top tier of available left-handed relievers.
The Royals don’t want to rebuild. They believe in their core of Bobby Witt Jr., Jac Caglianone, Maikel Garcia, Carter Jensen and Vinnie Pasquantino. Complementing it with pitching is the goal, but it’s one this deadline will struggle to supply. Limited inventory and limited quality tend to equal limited return.
MLB.com reporter Mark Feinsand echoes that sentiment.
The Royals are surefire sellers this week, but don’t look for Kansas City to trade away any of its controllable players.
According to sources, the Royals are open to moving their expiring contracts, most notably reliever John Schreiber and outfielders Lane Thomas and Starling Marte, but players with control beyond 2026 – namely pitchers Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Daniel Lynch IV and Alex Lange – will likely remain in Kansas City after the Trade Deadline has passed.
“They’re trying to contend in 2027 and they think those guys are part of that equation,” a rival executive said. “It doesn’t seem like they’re going to move any of them. Maybe one of the relievers, but that would be it.”
Of course, a lot of these kind of reports could be leaks from the front office to posture in the trade market. A motivated seller is going to be taken advantage of, so any sellers need to have a stance of “we don’t want to trade these guys, but we’ll listen to any offer.” J.J. Picollo has said as much, telling reporters last week, “we’ll be open-minded to anything,” but adding, “we have to be very, very pointed on what we want to get out of any one of those two.”
To get a sense of how Picollo might handle the trade deadline, we can look at his trade history in July.
In 2023, the Royals were still in a full rebuild and were barreling towards 100+ losses. Picollo struck early and traded closer Aroldis Chapman, an impending free agent, to the Rangers in late June for prospect Cole Ragans, a deal that has worked out sensationally even despite some recent injuries. He then dealt Nicky Lopez to the Braves for Taylor Hearn, signaling a willingness to move players they didn’t view as part of the future rather than risk losing them for nothing.
The Royals traded reliever Jose Cuas while he had value, sending him to the Cubs for outfielder Nelson Velázquez. Scott Barlow was under club control through 2024, but some shaky performances over the summer likely lessened his trade value, although they eventually shipped him to the Padres. The Royals also traded veteran pitcher Ryan Yarbrough to the Dodgers as a rental. Those deals showed a willingness to sell high on relievers even when they still had years of club control remaining.
In 2024, the Royals were in contention, a much different scenario than they are now. Picollo picked up infielder Paul DeJong and pitchers Hunter Harvey, Michael Lorenzen, and Lucas Erceg, moves that helped the team without sacrificing much farm depth.
Last year, the Royals were just under .500 in the week leading up to the deadline, but were three games back of a Wild Card spot, jostling with many teams. The team made some small moves, acquiring veterans Adam Frazier and Randall Grichuk earlier in the month, then landing outfielder Mike Yastrzemski. They also made some moves that they thought could help them in the short- and long-term, acquiring Bailey Falter from the Pirates and trading catcher Freddy Fermin to the Padres for pitchers Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek.
But the big move was the move they didn’t make – trading Seth Lugo. The right-hander had a 3.03 ERA through 20 starts heading into the trade deadline, and was drawing interest from several clubs, namely the Cubs. He was eligible for free agency at the end of the year, but rather than trade him or let him walk, the Royals signed him to a two-year contract extension. He had a 9.11 ERA in his next six starts before the Royals shut him down, and he has had mixed results this year with a 4.22 ERA in 22 starts.
Picollo’s trade history reveals a fairly consistent philosophy. He’s willing to move expiring contracts, and he’ll occasionally trade a controllable reliever if he believes the timing is right. But he has generally avoided tearing down the major league roster. Even when the Royals have struggled, his focus has been on making moves that keep the club competitive in the near future rather than maximizing long-term value.
What has really hampered the Royals over the last three decades is an inability to objectively evaluate their own talent and honestly assess how far they are from contention. Too often the franchise has convinced itself it is only a year away from competing, only to find itself buried in the standings by May.
Maybe this team really is just a year away. Bobby Witt Jr. remains one of the game’s best players and they really have to maximize the window they have with him. Jac Caglianone has flashed star potential, and there are legitimate reasons to believe players like Maikel Garcia and Carter Jensen can form the core of the next winning Royals club.
The problem is everything around them. The lineup still lacks impact hitters, the rotation is being held together by two pitchers who began their careers during the Obama administration, the bullpen is an abomination, and the talent in the farm system is too far away to make an impact next year.
There is a scenario where you can squint and see the Royals competitive next year if they are healthier, if Vinnie Pasquantino bounces back to being a 30+ HR hitter, if they can add one more bat, if Picollo can revamp the bullpen.
But is that the most likely scenario, or is it wishcasting?
The Royals need to take an honest look at their level of talent and determine whether it really makes sense to hang onto Lugo and Wacha for 2027. If it would be better long-term to sell high on a guy like Daniel Lynch IV. If moving Michael Massey while he’s healthy and productive is good for the organization even if it hurts, because it opens up a spot for Nick Loftin and improves the farm system.
After back-to-back winning seasons, the expectations were lifted in Kansas City. A quiet trade deadline in the middle of an awful season would signal complacency. This deadline will reveal whether the front office has an accurate read on where this franchise stands, or whether it is once again mistaking hope for progress.
